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2016 Severe Weather Thread

downeastnc

By downeastnc,
in Southeastern States

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Supercane

Supercane

Posted
Posted

Ripping wind, pouring rain, and an onslaught of marble-sized hail here in NW Raleigh. One of the best storms I've seen in a while. I had to helplessly watch my car take a beating from inside the office though, so I hope there isn't any damage.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Amazing how these storms work.  Both High Point and Greensboro got pounded with wind, rain and hail. Lightning within 2 miles of my house. It got very dark and I could clearly hear the thunder from inside my closed up house. I actually appeared to be under the edge of the storm on radar but 0.0" in the rain gauge.  

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Raleigh.  Doesn't include Wilkesboro:

 

 

:lol: 

 

Amazing how these storms work.  Both High Point and Greensboro got pounded with wind, rain and hail. Lightning within 2 miles of my house. It got very dark and I could clearly hear the thunder from inside my closed up house. I actually appeared to be under the edge of the storm on radar but 0.0" in the rain gauge.  

That has been mby   :angry:   :(   

 

Had 2 inch diameter hail here today at around 4:30. Dented the cars pretty good. Biggest hail I have seen in a long time. 

 

 

Now that's some hail  :D  

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Aleet!  The SPC has most of NC, with the exception of the Wilkesboro area and points north, west, and south of there, in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms:

 

post-987-0-41122300-1462283438_thumb.gif

 

...SERN VA SWWD TO PORTIONS OF FL...
AS ONGOING CONVECTION -- TIED TO A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX -- SHIFTS EWD/OFFSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT /ALREADY HINTED AT ACROSS AL/GA/NRN FL/ IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS THE MOIST WARM-SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS/DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT THREE MAIN INITIATION ZONES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL EXIST...

1. OVER THE WRN NC VICINITY INVOF THE ADVANCING FRONT
2. OVER THE FL PANHANDLE VICINITY NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
3. OVER THE FL E COAST -- ALSO INVOF A SEA-BREEZE FRONT

STORMS INITIATING OVER THE WRN NC VICINITY -- WHERE WEAK PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED --
WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...AIDED BY PRONOUNCED SPEED SHEAR WITH
HEIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL RISK AS
CELLULAR CONVECTION INITIATES...WITH SOME UPSCALE/LINEAR GROWTH
POSSIBLE WITH TIME WHICH COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...A MORE SLY/BACKED COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS INVOF THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
DEVELOPING OVER NC COULD SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR A BRIEF/ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO.

FARTHER SW...MOST CAMS SUGGEST AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE SEA-BREEZE REGIME AND SEA-BREEZE/COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION INVOF THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING
NEWD ACROSS SRN GA AND EVENTUALLY SC. THOUGH SOMEWHAT WEAKER FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THIS REGION...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL IS EXPECTED...AND ATTM APPEARING SUFFICIENT
TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA.

FINALLY...MORE ISOLATED -- BUT POSSIBLY LOCALLY SEVERE -- STORMS MAY
OCCUR INVOF THE FL E COAST AS THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY ADVANCES
GRADUALLY INLAND.

IN ALL AREAS...SEVERE RISK SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING...AS
WEAK LOW-LEVEL COOLING/STABILIZATION COMMENCES.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Already clearing out after this mornings round of storms and rain and it wont take much to get some severe storms going.....especially Triad to Charlotte then over to the Triangle since there is already sun out that way.

I really like today. Heard some mentioning it won't be as active as yesterday, I have some trouble understanding why. Guidence looks pretty good and like you said the radar is cleared out. Wake County looks to get nailed again around rush hour as it should be sunny and clear for the next 5-6 hours, could hit 80-82 at RDU if it stays completely dry.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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I really like today. Heard some mentioning it won't be as active as yesterday, I have some trouble understanding why. Guidence looks pretty good and like you said the radar is cleared out. Wake County looks to get nailed again around rush hour as it should be sunny and clear for the next 5-6 hours, could hit 80-82 at RDU if it stays completely dry.

 

Yeah cape isn't as robust as yesterday but we got the shear so that should compensate and if the sun gets going cape will be higher than forecast anyways and the cold pool aloft means big hail possible again.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Yeah cape isn't as robust as yesterday but we got the shear so that should compensate and if the sun gets going cape will be higher than forecast anyways and the cold pool aloft means big hail possible again.

Yeah cape was what, 3000-4000 yesterday? definitely lacking today. Get this cloud cover gone and we're good. Breaking through IMBY in Garner. We'll see.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Think it all depends on when the sun comes out. If it takes a while, could end up not being much today. But with the rain this morning, could end up being more humid if the sun comes out for most of the afternoon, and could end up being as bad as yesterday. Looks like that is what the SPC is counting on with the slight risk area being bigger today.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

11:20 update from NWS RAH:

 

SEVERE THREAT: WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500J/KG...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
ENERGY TO FEED OFF OF. SPEEDY FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD...WILL RESULT IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 45KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED
WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES APPROACHING 100M2/S2, SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT OVERHEAD AND AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...STORM MODE MAY BECOME MESSY QUICKLY...WITH
ALL STORM MODES POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...500-700HPA LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP AND FREEZING LEVELS
ARE ~9000FT...AND STRONG WINDS...DCAPE VALUES >800-1000J/KG. THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY SHIFT AWAY FROM HAIL AND MORE TOWARD WIND BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AS STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE
LINE..WHICH AS SUGGESTED BY THE CAMS THIS MORNING...COULD CONTAIN
BOWING SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THE TOR THREAT
WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS AND A LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY.
-SCR/WSS

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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11:20 update from NWS RAH:

 

SEVERE THREAT: WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500J/KG...ESPECIALLY

OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF

ENERGY TO FEED OFF OF. SPEEDY FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE

SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD...WILL RESULT IN DEEP

LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 45KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED

WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES APPROACHING 100M2/S2, SHOULD RESULT IN THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS

PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT OVERHEAD AND AN

UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...STORM MODE MAY BECOME MESSY QUICKLY...WITH

ALL STORM MODES POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

REGARDLESS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE

HAIL...500-700HPA LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP AND FREEZING LEVELS

ARE ~9000FT...AND STRONG WINDS...DCAPE VALUES >800-1000J/KG. THE

SEVERE THREAT MAY SHIFT AWAY FROM HAIL AND MORE TOWARD WIND BY LATE

AFTERNOON...AS STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE

LINE..WHICH AS SUGGESTED BY THE CAMS THIS MORNING...COULD CONTAIN

BOWING SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THE TOR THREAT

WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO

STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS AND A LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY.

-SCR/WSS

 

That's a pretty midwest looking setup, add the shear to sustain the updrafts and IF things do form and stay discrete there could be some nasty stuff this afternoon. If you see tops to 30-35K there will be big ass hail with it....

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Temps are slow to recover across the area today. 60's and 70's compared to 70's and low 80's this time yesterday.

Yep, still cloudy as it can be. I'm starting to wonder whether or not the sun will come out at all. If it does, temps will go up in a hurry.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Updated text from SPC:

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1114 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016   VALID 031630Z - 041200Z   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SRN   VA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO S GA/N FL...   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL VA SWD TO THE E   COAST OF FL...   ...SUMMARY...   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE   SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY.   ...PARTS OF VA/CAROLINAS TO GA/N FL THROUGH LATE EVENING...   ONGOING CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING OFF THE NC COAST...AND VISIBLE   SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD BREAKS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION   FROM CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL VA.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN   THE MID 60S FROM SE VA ACROSS NC...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S   FARTHER SW INTO SC/GA.  THE LINGERING CONVECTION WILL CLEAR ERN NC   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING REMOVES   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND BOOSTS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO ROUGHLY   500 J/KG IN CENTRAL VA AND 1000-1500 J/KG FROM SRN NC TO SC/GA.   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS   AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE   LOW LEVELS WARM/DESTABILIZE.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO FORM   FARTHER S ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM S GA INTO SC.  MIDLEVEL   FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE   ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE   OH/MS VALLEY REGION.  THE EXPECTED MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRAIGHT   HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT   ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND POTENTIALLY SPLITTING SUPERCELLS   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE   EVENING. 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1114 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016   VALID 031630Z - 041200Z   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SRN   VA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO S GA/N FL...   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL VA SWD TO THE E   COAST OF FL...   ...SUMMARY...   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE   SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY.   ...PARTS OF VA/CAROLINAS TO GA/N FL THROUGH LATE EVENING...   ONGOING CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING OFF THE NC COAST...AND VISIBLE   SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD BREAKS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION   FROM CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL VA.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN   THE MID 60S FROM SE VA ACROSS NC...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S   FARTHER SW INTO SC/GA.  THE LINGERING CONVECTION WILL CLEAR ERN NC   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING REMOVES   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND BOOSTS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO ROUGHLY   500 J/KG IN CENTRAL VA AND 1000-1500 J/KG FROM SRN NC TO SC/GA.   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS   AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE   LOW LEVELS WARM/DESTABILIZE.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO FORM   FARTHER S ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM S GA INTO SC.  MIDLEVEL   FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE   ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE   OH/MS VALLEY REGION.  THE EXPECTED MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRAIGHT   HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT   ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND POTENTIALLY SPLITTING SUPERCELLS   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE   EVENING.
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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Yep, still cloudy as it can be. I'm starting to wonder whether or not the sun will come out at all. If it does, temps will go up in a hurry.

It's going to depend on your backyard. Not widespread sun today like yesterday. I'm near 80 here and its party cloudy.
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