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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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The WPC (old HPC) must've smoked some good stuff last night.

They've jumped all in from tonight through Wednesday morning.

hpc_total_precip_ne_14.png

Jspin is going to squeeze 2ft out of that. Lol.

Avert your eyes from the latest Euro and GFS in NNE for the next weekend storm unless you enjoy the aroma of a finely smoked cirrus.

CMC bumped North, maybe it's leading the way????.....we pray.

Just need a few more bumps north. Still so much time, will be interesting to see where the models take this storm over the next 3-4 days.

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Jspin is going to squeeze 2ft out of that. Lol.

Avert your eyes from the latest Euro and GFS in NNE for the next weekend storm unless you enjoy the aroma of a finely smoked cirrus.

CMC bumped North, maybe it's leading the way????.....we pray.

Just need a few more bumps north. Still so much time, will be interesting to see where the models take this storm over the next 3-4 days.

I've become jaded about "bumping north". It just never seems to happen anymore. I've come to expect a 6" ceiling for any storm that may deign to impact us.
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I've become jaded about "bumping north". It just never seems to happen anymore. I've come to expect a 6" ceiling for any storm that may deign to impact us.

 

You and me both, haha.  I remember it seemed there were times on the forums back like 5-10 years ago when every single storm seemed to be threatening to keep ticking NW.  The folks south/east of like CON-BDL are so spoiled now they don't even fear the NW shift.  Used to be able to get them going a bit, now its no fear as we all know how this plays out ;).

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It was amazing to see the difference in snow cover from here to Waterbury. I took a drone flight near little river state park. I want to go back and fly in toward camels hump from the flea market grounds. Little river road has some good snow scenes.

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

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This looks ok... nothing real heavy but through 12z Wednesday most models have around a half inch of QPF for the northern Greens.  Could see J.Spin pull like a foot of snow by Wednesday midday.  I think Tuesday/Tuesday night is a pretty blocked flow, so that should shadow us on the east side a bit.  Western Slopes to the Spine should do real well the next couple days.

 

Tonight
Cloudy...snow...mainly after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Lows around 14. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 90 percent.
Martin Luther King Jr Day
Snow in the morning...then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs around 20. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent.
Monday Night
Snow showers likely...mainly until midnight. Additional snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Lows around 1 above. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
Tuesday
Occasional snow showers. Additional light snow accumulation. Highs around 15. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. Wind chill values as low as 20 below.
Tuesday Night
Snow showers. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows around 8 above. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
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I've been looking at the BTV WRF 4km model, and noticed that it usually has bullseyes around Jay Peak area, and Smuggs/Mansfield, and Bolton. 

 

In particular, it seems that the stretch from Smuggs to Jay has a few decently high (~3000-3600') ridgelines and peaks around Belvidiere and Eden that are favorable for W-NW upslope flow without much upstream blocking and decent aspect (roughly N-S). I just wonder if there's a localized grid function in the model that, where certain parameters are met- places where it is known to  produce more precipitation ((i.e. ski resorts)  under these conditions get a bump up in QPF, or if the model is just based upon the the terrain/aspect and all the rest.

 

I guess the question is- does the model output mirror places where ski resorts were built (naturally more snow), or it influenced by a historic dataset from these resort areas?   I'm guessing it's the former.

 

Another note- the WRF is showing greatest qpf just to the east of the crest on the latest run. 

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I've been looking at the BTV WRF 4km model, and noticed that it usually has bullseyes around Jay Peak area, and Smuggs/Mansfield, and Bolton. 

 

In particular, it seems that the stretch from Smuggs to Jay has a few decently high (~3000-3600') ridgelines and peaks around Belvidiere and Eden that are favorable for W-NW upslope flow without much upstream blocking and decent aspect (roughly N-S). I just wonder if there's a localized grid function in the model that, where certain parameters are met- places where it is known to  produce more precipitation ((i.e. ski resorts)  under these conditions get a bump up in QPF, or if the model is just based upon the the terrain/aspect and all the rest.

 

I guess the question is- does the model output mirror places where ski resorts were built (naturally more snow), or it influenced by a historic dataset from these resort areas?   I'm guessing it's the former.

 

Another note- the WRF is showing greatest qpf just to the east of the crest on the latest run. 

 

It would have nothing to do with the ski resorts, as there's no consistent data going into the models from them.  It would have to be the Mansfield COOP or the old Jay Peak COOP.  I think its purely based on its algorithm and the terrain.  Even at a very high-resolution, you have to consider the average terrain height in a given grid area, so I think Mount Mansfield and Smuggs region (out to Whiteface past Madonna) stands out to the model as a local high spot.  Along with Bolton. Jay Peak and Big Jay part of the Spine is impressive too, relative to the local valleys...so that stands out.  Same with Sugarbush-Mount Ellen part of the Spine, that's a high average elevation zone.  All those spots are where you'll see the BTV4 giving local maximums.  With observations at Mansfield and Jay for a while on a regular basis may probably helps too.

 

I have no doubt that those other areas in-between get crushed just like the rest, though sometimes it is locally higher tied to the 4,000ft+ peaks.  Then again, other times it snows hard between those areas, like when Dewey or

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It would have nothing to do with the ski resorts, as there's no consistent data going into the models from them.  It would have to be the Mansfield COOP or the old Jay Peak COOP.  I think its purely based on its algorithm and the terrain.  Even at a very high-resolution, you have to consider the average terrain height in a given grid area, so I think Mount Mansfield and Smuggs region (out to Whiteface past Madonna) stands out to the model as a local high spot.  Jay Peak and Big Jay part of the Spine is fairly impressive too relative to the local valleys...so that stands out.  Same with Sugarbush-Mount Ellen part of the Spine, that's a high average elevation zone.  All those spots are where you'll see the BTV4 giving local maximums.  With observations at Mansfield and Jay for a while on a regular basis may probably helps too.

Yep, the COOP data is what I was referring to... All that good stuff. I just think about the area around Eden/Belvidere as getting a ton of snow, being pretty high elevation (not quite Smuggs/Mansfield or Jay, but Similar to the Bolton Valley area). The curiosity is in the model inputs- whether observations play a role. In the forecasted event(s) coming up over the next few days, I see a typical Mansfield and Jay Bullseye- but am curious about the ~25 miles in between of high (3k ft) elevation.

 

The high terrain in Belvidere, Eden, Montgomery, Lowell and the like- while not as prominent as the Monroe skyline or Smuggs/Mansfield, Jay, or even maybe Bolton- the tick north and benefiting from being more out-of-line with the 'Dacks and more unimpeded moisture flow- seems like this area should be, more or less, on par with Bolton-Smuggs as far as snowfall at elevation.  Just wondering if there's actually a relative snow-hole there relative to Smuggs/Mansfield to the south and Jay to the north. Or that the makings of a ski area are there and were just never built?

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Ono, Eden, Belvidere and Lowell get absolutely crushed with snow. It's a pretty remote area but it is a snow lovers nirvana.

 

Yeah, a buddy at work lives in Eden and posts a bunch of shots on social media from home.  They are usually (no surprise) much snowier than here, and they are at like 1,500ft.  Like really snowy.  I used to have to drive over what a college girlfriend from Brownington called, "Lowell Mountain pass"...I forget the name of the route, but that was almost always hairy on our drives from BTV to NEK.  Snowing and blowing snow from the open fields.

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This looks ok... nothing real heavy but through 12z Wednesday most models have around a half inch of QPF for the northern Greens.  Could see J.Spin pull like a foot of snow by Wednesday midday.  I think Tuesday/Tuesday night is a pretty blocked flow, so that should shadow us on the east side a bit.  Western Slopes to the Spine should do real well the next couple days.

 

My local forecast does sum to the 5-10” range by Tuesday night, so we’ll just have to watch and see what happens, but it does look reasonably snowy for the next few days.

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Yeah, a buddy at work lives in Eden and posts a bunch of shots on social media from home. They are usually (no surprise) much snowier than here, and they are at like 1,500ft. Like really snowy. I used to have to drive over what a college girlfriend from Brownington called, "Lowell Mountain pass"...I forget the name of the route, but that was almost always hairy on our drives from BTV to NEK. Snowing and blowing snow from the open fields.

Hazen's Notch goes from Montgomery to Lowell but is closed in winter. That's Rt. 58 I think. Further north, Rt. 105 from Richford to Jay is pretty good. 108 (I think)from Waterville to 100 in Eden is another way across. Moving east to west or vice versa in VT is pretty interesting just about anywhere.
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Hazen's Notch goes from Montgomery to Lowell but is closed in winter. That's Rt. 58 I think. Further north, Rt. 105 from Richford to Jay is pretty good. 108 (I think)from Waterville to 100 in Eden is another way across. Moving east to west or vice versa in VT is pretty interesting just about anywhere.

 

It is 58 from Lowell into Irasburg.

 

Ono, Belvedere/Eden/Cold Hollows get smoked the same. However, I think Jay/Big Jay/N. Jay always feel deeper, different woods with different wind loads.  

 

First full winter weekend here, time on the rink, xc skiing, watching people slide off the road in winter conditions. May finally be able to add first ski tour this week :)

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