franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 We can all agree that the magnitude of this heat was generally unexpected, but as a forecaster, you never call for a "record" warm month from 30-40 days out. Forecasters that tend to skew towards the mean as the general rule of thumb, since they are most likely to verify (or not bust as horribly). Honestly, the warmest December forecast I've seen from a reputable meteorologist was like +4 for RDU. The point is, the warmth was part of the plan. The pattern 15-20 days from now is generally unknown, but almost all of the analogs show a flip in January from these types of Decembers. How much of January we "waste" is very much open to debate. Canceling winter now is unwise. If we sit in the same spot on January 25th, punting is certainly a viable option. great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Long story short, Nino is going to Nino and it's Ninoing all over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 We can all agree that the magnitude of this heat was generally unexpected, but as a forecaster, you never call for a "record" warm month from 30-40 days out. Forecasters that tend to skew towards the mean as the general rule of thumb, since they are most likely to verify (or not bust as horribly). Honestly, the warmest December forecast I've seen from a reputable meteorologist was like +4 for RDU. The point is, the warmth was part of the plan. The pattern 15-20 days from now is generally unknown, but almost all of the analogs show a flip in January from these types of Decembers. How much of January we "waste" is very much open to debate. Totally agree. It would be very difficult, as a serious forecaster, to go for record cold/warmth. My bigger concern is that the drivers of the exceptional warmth were not as strongly considered in some of these seasonal forecasts. There has been a lot of talk about how typically, El Ninos feature warmer front ends and colder back ends to the winter season. Most of the analogs that were used show this. But from reading recent comments and posts from mets, it seems that this El Nino isn't behaving in the way it was expected to behave. Maybe I'm not reading that right though. If I'm wrong on that, let me know. The other thing is the intense PV, like I said before. I don't recall seeing any indication that it was expected to be in the state that it's in. So, for me, it's less about the magnitude of the warmth predicted in the seasonal forecasts and more about the overall atmosphere doing what it was expected to do. Is it? It doesn't seem like it, even though the seasonal forecasts called for this to be a warm month, which is in fact playing out as expected. Let me know if I'm off base here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Totally agree. It would be very difficult, as a serious forecaster, to go for record cold/warmth. My bigger concern is that the drivers of the exceptional warmth were not as strongly considered in some of these seasonal forecasts. There has been a lot of talk about how typically, El Ninos feature warmer front ends and colder back ends to the winter season. Most of the analogs that were used show this. But from reading recent comments and posts from mets, it seems that this El Nino isn't behaving in the way it was expected to behave. Maybe I'm not reading that right though. If I'm wrong on that, let me know. The other thing is the intense PV, like I said before. I don't recall seeing any indication that it was expected to be in the state that it's in. So, for me, it's less about the magnitude of the warmth predicted in the seasonal forecasts and more about the overall atmosphere doing what it was expected to do. Is it? It doesn't seem like it, even though the seasonal forecasts called for this to be a warm month, which is in fact playing out as expected. Let me know if I'm off base here. It's 4th and 32. , and the Clemson punter has the ball in his hands.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Bam...time to prune the garden.My image ends at the 23rd, yours is the 23rd+.... If I had a dollar for every time I saw the LR GFS today I'd be a wealthy man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Not sure it can get much worse than this, but I'll probably be proven wrong tomorrow. +5 on the AO. SMH. Signing this throughout the rest of the winter to be proven wrong time and time again LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Most of the seasonal forecasts I read indicated a warm December. I think we can all pretty much agree with that. But I don't remember reading that the monthly departures would be as warm as they appear they're going to be. Also, I don't recall reading many that suggested the current strong El Nino would be acting as much like a La Nina. I also don't recall anyone forecasting the almost record strong strat PV that is currently in place. So, when we talk about the predictions for a warm December, point taken. But in the context of the current pattern, the calls for a quick flip to winter may turn out to be in a bit of trouble. Agree, there isn't going to be any quick flip...I literally have to look at the w-QBO/solar/nino analogs to remind myself what is going to happen. Jamming Jan is flaming out, literally but FabFeb will save us This nino will drive the pattern, eventually, but the w-QBO is the puppet master this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Signing this throughout the rest of the winter to be proven wrong time and time again LOL lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Agree, there isn't going to be any quick flip...I literally have to look at the w-QBO/solar/nino analogs to remind myself what is going to happen. Jamming Jan is flaming out, literally but FabFeb will save us This nino will drive the pattern, eventually, but the w-QBO is the puppet master this winter. Yuck. Maybe the departures in early Jan will be so great that the end of the month will be very cold, in order to bring anomalies down. We can hope. Feb looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 My image ends at the 23rd, yours is the 23rd+.... If I had a dollar for every time I saw the LR GFS today I'd be a wealthy man. How about the EPS, that hold any weight...LOL #toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Most of the seasonal forecasts I read indicated a warm December. I think we can all pretty much agree with that. But I don't remember reading that the monthly departures would be as warm as they appear they're going to be. Also, I don't recall reading many that suggested the current strong El Nino would be acting as much like a La Nina. I also don't recall anyone forecasting the almost record strong strat PV that is currently in place. So, when we talk about the predictions for a warm December, point taken. But in the context of the current pattern, the calls for a quick flip to winter may turn out to be in a bit of trouble.Flips shouldn't be quick, so anyone expecting New Years to come and snow to arrive January 1st is mistaken. It may take to mid or most likely late January to get into a productive pattern for snow. That doesn't mean we can't have cold shots and brief warm up periods in between, however I don't expect the heat like we have now to exist in January...and I also don't believe in wall to wall heat through February, it just doesn't happen. If people post 10-15 day gfs runs and it shows a giant ridge and Godzilla torch on the SE, that tells me nothing other than we are going as expected for December. Literally nothing has surprised so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Totally agree. It would be very difficult, as a serious forecaster, to go for record cold/warmth. My bigger concern is that the drivers of the exceptional warmth were not as strongly considered in some of these seasonal forecasts. There has been a lot of talk about how typically, El Ninos feature warmer front ends and colder back ends to the winter season. Most of the analogs that were used show this. But from reading recent comments and posts from mets, it seems that this El Nino isn't behaving in the way it was expected to behave. Maybe I'm not reading that right though. If I'm wrong on that, let me know. The other thing is the intense PV, like I said before. I don't recall seeing any indication that it was expected to be in the state that it's in. So, for me, it's less about the magnitude of the warmth predicted in the seasonal forecasts and more about the overall atmosphere doing what it was expected to do. Is it? It doesn't seem like it, even though the seasonal forecasts called for this to be a warm month, which is in fact playing out as expected. Let me know if I'm off base here. The PV is probably the thing that concerns me the most given the fact that the vast majority of Decembers with high AO numbers have been pretty poor snow producers. However, we have actually been in this stratospheric pattern since late October, and while they've recently had the tendency to stick around longer than usual, it's no coincidence that a warm fall often begets a colder winter. Punting the entirety of January doesn't make sense given it literally takes one storm in the latter part of the month to put this whole subforum close to, or above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 How about the EPS, that hold any weight...LOL #toasty Of course it does, do you think I'm hoping for cold during this time period? I'm no idiot. What's your point? I know the near Norms in the CPC image is transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Yuck. Maybe the departures in early Jan will be so great that the end of the month will be very cold, in order to bring anomalies down. We can hope. Feb looks good. These people that think the pattern is going to flip next week makes me want to wish for a complete flame out the rest of the winter. Unfortunately we will get 2-3 week period in Feb where we are BN and an event or two and we will hear the proverbial, 'see pack all you need is patience'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It's 4th and 32. , and the Clemson punter has the ball in his hands....Now that's funny! Just need one big one mid Jan for us but for the mountains it's gonna take several to get our above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Ncrain, if the mjo gets to more favorable phases, will that help us moving forward? If im reading you correctly....the pv will be tough to get displaced or split bc of west qbo? If thats true, why are we even holding any optimism? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Weenies in full panic mode! This is just too funny. It's the 14th of December people, we don't live in the Yukon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 These people that think the pattern is going to flip next week makes me want to wish for a complete flame out the rest of the winter. Unfortunately we will get 2-3 week period in Feb where we are BN and an event or two and we will hear the proverbial, 'see pack all you need is patience'... 2010-2011 flipped pretty quick in mid January. That Dec and first half of January was great and then it went to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Weenies in full panic mode! This is just too funny. It's the 14th of December people, we don't live in the Yukon. Yes. If you lived in Yukon, you'd be loving this, so far. Storms are routing wayyy north over this ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Weenies in full panic mode! This is just too funny. It's the 14th of December people, we don't live in the Yukon. Yeah, but we (most of us) don't live in Orlando either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Yes. If you lived in Yukon, you'd be loving this, so far. Storms are routing wayyy north over this ridge.I agree on the the strength of the ridge but it's still early. I wouldn't be surprised in January to see the western trough break down. Most Dec El Nino are warm, and the seasonal models and analogs have done fairly well so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Ncrain, if the mjo gets to more favorable phases, will that help us moving forward? If im reading you correctly....the pv will be tough to get displaced or split bc of west qbo? If thats true, why are we even holding any optimism? Lol Yes, yes and yes. It's the worst combination (w-Qbo/low solar) for SSW's, but with a strong nino/SAI we have that going for us that should weaken/displace this beast end of Jan into Feb. I have no clue why the MJO is so strong/active in such a strong nino, nobody would have guessed that. There is some relationships to MJO/SSW and phases 3/4 does precede SSW roughly 3-4 weeks out and a progression into phase 7 is promising for SSW but I need to dig up that info as memory is a little hazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The PV is probably the thing that concerns me the most given the fact that the vast majority of Decembers with high AO numbers have been pretty poor snow producers. However, we have actually been in this stratospheric pattern since late October, and while they've recently had the tendency to stick around longer than usual, it's no coincidence that a warm fall often begets a colder winter. Totally agree. Nino's don't favor a -epo because of the typical npac nino climo pattern isn't one that produces strong and static ridging in the epo region. I looked back at the epo dailies during nino's and the results were a bias for + but pretty neutral overall. Nino seasons were mixed fairly evenly and most had at least a notable period of a favorable epo. As we learned the last 2 years, a strong -epo can overwhelm and/or offset lack of meaningful blocking. Going into this winter knowing how ninos don't favor a strong -epo, I set my sights on the the obvious...we really need help from the AO/NAO domain space to make things work...heh Warm Decembers are fine when the parts that make it warm aren't particularly hostile in general. Like a simple -pna but "ok" stuff over the pole. What we are seeing is a crazy strong PV and really persistent and anomalous low heights where we don't want to see them. This kind of stuff has legs and can last far longer than anyone wants them to. The warming and elongation showing up over the next week and a half looks transient to me. Ens means during the d10-15 period show a reconsolidation and strengthening back to square 1. It could very well take all of Jan for things to finally get right and then we have 1 month left. I hope I'm wrong but I think the signs of this possibility are growing each day. I'm sure the pna will turn + for a period in Jan but unless we get blocked flow from above the storm track will suck. I'm not trying to be a pessimist but right now all signals point overwhelmingly towards an extended rough stretch to begin Jan at the very least. If progs look the same with the PV and heights over the pole when we close out Dec then the entire month of Jan could be rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I don't remember 80s winters like this! I thought this was a throwback winter? I don't remember snowless 80s winters!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Yeah, but we (most of us) don't live in Orlando either.no we dont. I live in the western nc mtns and have yet to see a flake of snow and the ski slopes are closed. If this pattern persists till late January then I think we are in trouble. My point was most of us including the mtns see most of our winter from January -March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Weenies in full panic mode! This is just too funny. It's the 14th of December people, we don't live in the Yukon. You will flip before the pattern does, you can only hold on to hope for so long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 You will flip before the pattern does, you can only hold on to hope for so long... at least if it's not snowing it's warm instead of brutal cold. Nothing like a nice sunny day with highs in the teens or twenties and watching the leaves blow across the yard while burning gas all winter with a few light snow events to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 at least if it's not snowing it's warm instead of brutal cold. Nothing like a nice sunny day with highs in the teens or twenties and watching the leaves blow across the yard while burning gas all winter with a few light snow events to show for it. I for one am not at all frustrated, it's great outside right now and sans this weekend should continue for the next few weeks. I am guessing come end of January the frustration level will grow if we are looking at getting blanked this winter but come Valentines I am done with winter and it will be pre-emergent time. Seeing JB panic is funny.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Totally agree. Nino's don't favor a -epo because of the typical npac nino climo pattern isn't one that produces strong and static ridging in the epo region. I looked back at the epo dailies during nino's and the results were a bias for + but pretty neutral overall. Nino seasons were mixed fairly evenly and most had at least a notable period of a favorable epo. As we learned the last 2 years, a strong -epo can overwhelm and/or offset lack of meaningful blocking. Going into this winter knowing how ninos don't favor a strong -epo, I set my sights on the the obvious...we really need help from the AO/NAO domain space to make things work...heh Warm Decembers are fine when the parts that make it warm aren't particularly hostile in general. Like a simple -pna but "ok" stuff over the pole. What we are seeing is a crazy strong PV and really persistent and anomalous low heights where we don't want to see them. This kind of stuff has legs and can last far longer than anyone wants them to. The warming and elongation showing up over the next week and a half looks transient to me. Ens means during the d10-15 period show a reconsolidation and strengthening back to square 1. It could very well take all of Jan for things to finally get right and then we have 1 month left. I hope I'm wrong but I think the signs of this possibility are growing each day. I'm sure the pna will turn + for a period in Jan but unless we get blocked flow from above the storm track will suck. I'm not trying to be a pessimist but right now all signals point overwhelmingly towards an extended rough stretch to begin Jan at the very least. If progs look the same with the PV and heights over the pole when we close out Dec then the entire month of Jan could be rough. That is exactly the point I was making above. A warm December is fine. But the background state of the atmosphere is starting to get worrisome. As I said the other day, we're going to know some things about January very soon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 MJO activity has definitely impacted the patterns in both Nov and Dec thus far. The most simpleton approach (which I personally use) when using the MJO as a forward looking tool is this: Progression through 8-1-2 is the promised land. And not just some weak amplitude event near the circle of death because that makes a big difference. Nice graphic for conus temps and phases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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