wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The jig is up with the stratospheric polar vortex. HM, one of the most knowledgeable meteorologists out there, and someone who was optimistic for a SSW and polar vortex split just tweeted "cringe worthy trends this week" in regard to the stratospheric polar vortex. We are beating a dead horse with it, still zero signs of warming and we are 2 weeks away from February. Time to call it a day.... There is no tweet from HM, but I know he has soured on the possibility, not that this matters. Our own Isotherm has not soured on it, and he is way more of a strat expert than HM. The trends this week have been favorable. I am skeptical myself, but to make a statement that there "is zero signs of warming" is just ignorant and ridiculous. Then again, this is banter and you are the biggest troll in the NYC forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 There is no tweet from HM, but I know he has soured on the possibility, not that this matters. Our own Isotherm has not soured on it, and he is way more of a strat expert than HM. The trends this week have been favorable. HM has been behind on just about every single pattern evolution over the past two Winters. I am skeptical myself, but to make a statement that there "is zero signs of warming" is just ignorant and ridiculous. Then again, this is banter and you are the biggest troll in the NYC forums. Post some examples or this is going bye bye very quickly. Met bashing will not be tolerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Post some examples or this is going bye bye very quickly. Met bashing will not be tolerated. It's not even relevant. I removed the language in question above. I posted a series of facts concerning trends over the past couple of days above, troll claims there is no warming. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 There is no tweet from HM, but I know he has soured on the possibility, not that this matters. Our own Isotherm has not soured on it, and he is way more of a strat expert than HM. The trends this week have been favorable. I am skeptical myself, but to make a statement that there "is zero signs of warming" is just ignorant and ridiculous. Then again, this is banter and you are the biggest troll in the NYC forums. HM actually did tweet "cringe worthy trends this week" in response to someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Post some examples or this is going bye bye very quickly. Met bashing will not be tolerated. this might help to determine whats going on here - https://twitter.com/antmasiello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Some people on this board don't want to hear facts . You didn't say that it was 100 percent coming. You just stated what the models show. Let snowman think what he wants. Isotherm does a great job along with Dsnow and Earthlight in regards to the stratosphere. I think a another concern is how Hurricane Alex is going to effect the current pattern as it moves into the north atlantic......and no one that I noticed answered my question regarding the lag time translating down to the surface after a strat warming event..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think a another concern is how Hurricane Alex is going to effect the current pattern as it moves into the north atlantic...... I heard that the hurricane can influence the blocking pattern which might set up a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 There is no tweet from HM, but I know he has soured on the possibility, not that this matters. Our own Isotherm has not soured on it, and he is way more of a strat expert than HM. The trends this week have been favorable. I am skeptical myself, but to make a statement that there "is zero signs of warming" is just ignorant and ridiculous. Then again, this is banter and you are the biggest troll in the NYC forums. Many posters have explained to you time and time again that a PV split does not mean cold and snowy is on the way. You can hype this all you want, but again, many posters have explained that the focus on SSW is way overblown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I heard that the hurricane can influence the blocking pattern which might set up a -NAO. We have a -NAO and its warm and wet. -NAO doesnt matter when the PAC is a trainwreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Many posters have explained to you time and time again that a PV split does not mean cold and snowy is on the way. You can hype this all you want, but again, many posters have explained that the focus on SSW is way overblown.The correlation is quite high, if there's a legitimate one it's actually a very positive development. The only thing is that it's always in fantasy range and the clock's ticking for it to have a significant impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 We have a -NAO and its warm and wet. -NAO doesnt matter when the PAC is a trainwreck.We can be warm in every single blocking regime (maybe even all of them together) but it usually won't torch, the days we are torching this month are because of storms cutting to our west, it's far from a torchy pattern though overall. Sometimes luck is needed every bit as much as a decent pattern. Get a solid SSW event before January 25th and I'll get a little excited, otherwise meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The correlation is quite high, if there's a legitimate one it's actually a very positive development. The only thing is that it's always in fantasy range and the clock's ticking for it to have a significant impact. Not true at all. Don S made a great post about this, as have others. It's completely overstated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 We can be warm in every single blocking regime (maybe even all of them together) but it usually won't torch, the days we are torching this month are because of storms cutting to our west, it's far from a torchy pattern though overall. Sometimes luck is needed every bit as much as a decent pattern. Get a solid SSW event before January 25th and I'll get a little excited, otherwise meh. Correct. We have a strong -AO and -NAO and we have flurries to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Not true at all. Don S made a great post about this, as have others. It's completely overstated.Thanks, I'll check it out. I also learned yesterday that Nina patterns are generally more progressive than Nino ones. Of course the general patterns at any given time will still dictate how progressive it is, but I do remember some years that absolutely nothing had time to amplify to any degree and storms were zipping by at insane speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 We have a -NAO and its warm and wet. -NAO doesnt matter when the PAC is a trainwreck.Yes. A strong, overwhelming pacific signal always trumps the NAO and AO. Weather moves west to east. It's a rather simple concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yes. A strong, overwhelming pacific signal always trumps the NAO and AO. Weather moves west to east. It's a rather simple concept.Yep, it was very evident the last few years with the -EPO, although a negative -NAO and -AO have generally done well for us historically even with a less than stellar Pacific signal. It doesn't have to be 20 degrees every day to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 sometimes things don't work out due to other factors thrumping a good block...this year is so different from any other start to winter on record...I believe if the blocking comes back in February or March something major could happen...I'm just hoping for measurable snow the next two weeks...If February doesn't deliver March could be the month...Then again it could be mild and snowless...If there is no blocking in February it would be very mild...record mild...at this time I'm sticking with a much better second half of the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Regarding the snowicane, had about 14" of cement IMBY but my ex up in West Milford had around 36". Once you got passed Butler on Rt 23 it was a completely different ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It was 2' for Queens and west as well. Two feet in Queens from that storm? Show me an official report that had anywhere close to 24" inside the five boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 sometimes things don't work out due to other factors thrumping a good block...this year is so different from any other start to winter on record...I believe if the blocking comes back in February or March something major could happen...I'm just hoping for measurable snow the next two weeks...If February doesn't deliver March could be the month...Then again it could be mild and snowless...If there is no blocking in February it would be very mild...record mild...at this time I'm sticking with a much better second half of the winter...A good example is tomorrow's storm, if not for that stout ULL we would've have that HP coming down and confluence over Canada would've vastly changed the outcome of the storm, at the end of the day the players need to come together in every pattern, but you still have to play the odds. In December there was literally zero chance it was gonna snow, this month has had a few close calls but at the end of the day it's like when a player gets robbed of a home run by a leaping catch over the wall it still shows as an out on the scorecard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Two feet in Queens from that storm? Show me an official report that had anywhere close to 24" inside the five boroughs.Central Park got 21 inches, it's really not that far fetched that he got 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I remember the ski resorts in the Catskills reporting insane numbers, Belleayre and Plattekill reported over 8 feet of snow for the entire event while low elevation places like 25 miles east had pretty much all rain. I went skiing about a week later and the drive was insane as it went from no snow on the Thruway to massive snowbanks everywhere as we drove west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Two feet in Queens from that storm? Show me an official report that had anywhere close to 24" inside the five boroughs. I had 18 inches from that storm. We have a -NAO and its warm and wet. -NAO doesnt matter when the PAC is a trainwreck. I would rather have a -EPO than a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Central Park got 21 inches, it's really not that far fetched that he got 2'. Snow to light rain to heavy thundersnow at night over here. What a beautiful storm. I remember every meteorologist calling for mostly rain for NYC. I had snow in the morning while a few miles away from me to the east had rain for a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Snowicane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Regarding the EPO, it's actually negative now so it's not like that's the reason we're not getting snow tomorrow, things simply didn't come together. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png The long range look there isn't pretty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Snow to light rain to heavy thundersnow at night over here. What a beautiful storm. I remember every meteorologist calling for mostly rain for NYC. I had snow in the morning while a few miles away from me to the east had rain for a short time. It snowed heavily out my way but it was super wet with very poor ratios. Maybe 4:1 or 6:1 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Regarding the EPO, it's actually negative now so it's not like that's the reason we're not getting snow tomorrow, things simply didn't come together. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png EPO was modeled to go negative with the storm next weekend. None of the tellies are in our favor for that storm. Maybe we might get lucky since the favorable tellies didn't do anything for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Snowicane The big ones almost always have a big closed ULL with associated surface development. That's something we haven't even come close to seeing this Winter because the STJ has been way too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.