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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm Part 2


Hoosier

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+RN, literally no flakes mixing in and 38. Needless to say all the deathbed snow melted and i can't say i'm that bummed, it was fun to see.

 

props to the HRRR...wonder if some mesolow features are helping to increase onshore flow because there isn't even a little flake surviving down with these drops. Can't wait to see the gradient. 

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+RN, literally no flakes mixing in and 38. Needless to say all the deathbed snow melted and i can't say i'm that bummed, it was fun to see.

 

props to the HRRR...wonder if some mesolow features are helping to increase onshore flow because there isn't even a little flake surviving down with these drops. Can't wait to see the gradient. 

 

post-68-0-57807400-1448106592_thumb.png

 

post-68-0-82142900-1448106834_thumb.png

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Pretty solid agreement between the 11z HRRR and RAP for snow here (no mixing issues verbatim).

Still, things are cutting close...

accsnowconus.png

accsnowmw.png

4km NAM snow map looks good and no rain on ncep model time series. Things have trended in our favor the last day for sure. 6z RGEM was the best RGEM run yet. 

0.1" on elevated surfaces and some grass here. Let the fun begin.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...CHICAGOLAND...FAR E-CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 211232Z - 211630Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA IF POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS REALIZED.

DISCUSSION...MODERATE SNOW HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS FAR E-CNTRL IA...NRN IL...AND SRN WI. SEVERAL SITES ALONG THE
IL/IA BORDER REPORTING HAVE INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED HEAVY SNOW.
REFLECTIVITY HAS ALSO SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN THIS REGION. THESE
OBSERVATIONS INCREASE THE CONFIDENCE THAT OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MATURE -- WITH THE 850
AND 700 MB LOW CENTERS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY-STACKED -- AND
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY-TITLED. THIS AREA IS ALSO LOCATED IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE APPROACHING JET STREAK. IN
ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE LIFT...SOME
LAKE-ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE THE BETTER LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MESOSCALE BAND MAY LOCALLY
ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES OVER PORTIONS OF CHICAGOLAND THIS MORNING.

..MOSIER.. 11/21/2015

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LOT...

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
605 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

0545 AM     SNOW             3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT     41.75N 87.79W
11/21/2015  M1.9 INCH        COOK               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 AM     SNOW             ROMEOVILLE              41.65N 88.09W
11/21/2015  M1.0 INCH        WILL               IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0600 AM     SNOW             ROCKFORD AIRPORT        42.20N 89.10W
11/21/2015  M7.3 INCH        WINNEBAGO          IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0600 AM     SNOW             OHARE AIRPORT           41.98N 87.90W
11/21/2015  M5.4 INCH        COOK               IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
634 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015


0628 AM     SNOW             N MACHESNEY PARK        42.36N 89.04W
11/21/2015  U12.5 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

 

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DVN....

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 AM     HEAVY SNOW 2 WNW CEDARVILLE 42.39N 89.67W 11/21/2015 E10.5 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       3 NNE STOCKTON          42.39N 89.98W
11/21/2015  M9.0 INCH        JO DAVIESS         IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STILL SNOWING WITH A HALF MILE VISIBILITY.

 

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From GRR... :tomato:

 

000
FXUS63 KGRR 210829
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015
 

 

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM. HEADLINE
CONFIGURATIONS WERE CHANGED TO REFLECT MODEL TRENDS THAT HAVE SKEWED
THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

THE SFC LOW IS IN SW MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS SYNOPTIC SNOW SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MISSOURI TOWARD
LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. ALSO FGEN BANDS WERE NOTED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. UNDER THOSE BAND EARLIER THIS EVENING...3 IN/HR SNOWFALL
FELL IN SOME LOCATIONS. ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL SHOW THE 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS THE I-
94 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND THEN REORIENT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NEAR LAKE ST CLARE TO THE IRISH HILLS. IF THIS
BANDING DEVELOPS ANYTHING LIKE THE BAND IN ILLINOIS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOW EXISTS AND AN UPGRADE TO WARNING STATUS MAY BE
WARRANTED AT THAT POINT.
 FOR NOW HOWEVER...THE QPF/SNOW RATIO MIX
POINTS TOWARD A 5-7 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD BE A 1-4 INCH EVENT NORTH OF
GRAND RAPIDS BEFORE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS TONIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO -13C OVER
THE LAKE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIMITED AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 5K FT. LIFT IN
THE DGZ ALSO APPEARS LIMITED.

THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR
NORTH TO GIVE US MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

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