Jonger Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I noticed cfs weeklies had temps near to below normal weeks 1 thru 3, then above normal week 4. Hoping the last week of January offers some snow chances as I'll be on vacation. Week 4 of the CFS has about as much skill at forecasting as Miss Cleo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 0z GFS loving the I-70 corridor for the storm next Thursday/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 0z GFS loving the I-70 corridor for the storm next Thursday/Friday. Yeah it is allowing the low to dig south and gather a lot of gulf moisture. With that being said I won't believe any run like this until inside of day 5 and then we'd still probably end up with 34 degrees and rain here in Ohio lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Week 4 of the CFS has about as much skill at forecasting as Miss Cleo. so true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 0z GFS loving the I-70 corridor for the storm next Thursday/Friday. Get the block out of the way and that ULL turns more NE, it eventually does. But yes a nice signal for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 0z GFS loving the I-70 corridor for the storm next Thursday/Friday. 0z GGEM in general agreement with the snow placement although track was a little different. Now lets see if Euro holds or caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 0z GGEM in general agreement with the snow placement although track was a little different. Now lets see if Euro holds or caves. I mean, it is 200 hours out. It's probably* not going to hold that track, but, whatever keeps you happy. Bring on the torch and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I mean, it is 200 hours out. It's probably* not going to hold that track, but, whatever keeps you happy. Bring on the torch and rain. Actually more like 180ish and Euro is the only one holding on to the "torch" idea. GFS/GGEM jumped ship over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Actually more like 180ish and Euro is the only one holding on to the "torch" idea. GFS/GGEM jumped shift over the last 24 hours. I'll go with w/e model has a torch. I've had around 14 inches this year.. I'm tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 AO looks to hold deeply negative and the NAO looks to hold on the negative side for the foreseeable future. PNA is remaining +, so I would side with more days below normal than anything. GEFS showing the heart of the cold to the west mostly. Does let up a bit 11-15 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Actually more like 180ish and Euro is the only one holding on to the "torch" idea. GFS/GGEM jumped ship over the last 24 hours. Well if the EURO is showing a torch, then it will probably end up being the opposite - with the way that model has been performing this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well if the EURO is showing a torch, then it will probably end up being the opposite - with the way that model has been performing this winter. Hopefully the Euro is out to lunch. After 180hrs it's pretty terrible if you want snow in this sub. 8-9 day storm is shown as a whimpering little rain system lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hopefully the Euro is out to lunch. After 180hrs it's pretty terrible if you want snow in this sub. 8-9 day storm is shown as a whimpering little rain system lol. Not sure what that was but it was certainly ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 AO looks to hold deeply negative and the NAO looks to hold on the negative side for the foreseeable future. PNA is remaining +, so I would side with more days below normal than anything. GEFS showing the heart of the cold to the west mostly. Does let up a bit 11-15 days out. NAO goes neutral, and the AO rises considerably, yes it will still be negative but no where near what it has been and even some ensembles take it closer to positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well if the EURO is showing a torch, then it will probably end up being the opposite - with the way that model has been performing this winter. Gets cut off from the mean flow, I don't buy it with both an active southern and northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 deeply negative? Well greater than -2. Yeah this is pretty ugly. GGEM was looking really good 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 For the next Thursday storm, alot could change. So, any solution could verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Gets cut off from the mean flow, I don't buy it with both an active southern and northern stream. Yeah this isn't the pattern for cut off's. If you remember the sleet storm low was forecasted to wander the southern Plains as a cut off for awhile and dump snow in the high Plains, but that turned out a lot different as we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 AO looks to hold deeply negative and the NAO looks to hold on the negative side for the foreseeable future. PNA is remaining +, so I would side with more days below normal than anything. As Stebo said, the AO and the NAO are both forecasted to head to neutral around the 20-21st timeframe. That being said, I'm not sure what if anything that means in real weather terms. After all the AO has been around -4 for awhile, the NAO around -2, and the PNA has been slightly positive. On paper that would mean we should be watching storms scrape us to the south and east and yet we are going to have rain tomorrow. This probably has to be one of the toughest forecast winters, (storm-wise), I can remember and every model has suffered outside of 4 days. As far as that storm next week....it's all fantasy until about 96 hours, and even then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 As Stebo said, the AO and the NAO are both forecasted to head to neutral around the 20-21st timeframe. That being said, I'm not sure what if anything that means in real weather terms. After all the AO has been around -4 for awhile, the NAO around -2, and the PNA has been slightly positive. On paper that would mean we should be watching storms scrape us to the south and east and yet we are going to have rain tomorrow. This probably has to be one of the toughest forecast winters, (storm-wise), I can remember and every model has suffered outside of 4 days. As far as that storm next week....it's all fantasy until about 96 hours, and even then..... Outside of FOUR days? How generous you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Outside of FOUR days? How generous you are yea, I was being generous.... 48h hours is probably better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 our January window is closing fast according to the euro.... That's ok, looking forward to our rock'n Feb that everyone has been pointing to since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 maybe we'll have spring this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 euro is total split stream hell at least it's not cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So we're canceling winter again? Anyways, a solid 6-8" snowpack has established itself over the area. It's beautiful outside, it smells and feels like the dead of winter. Love it. Hopefully our long range favors more of this. It seems like we continue this straight into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 yeah, it's over bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So we're canceling winter again? Anyways, a solid 6-8" snowpack has established itself over the area. It's beautiful outside, it smells and feels like the dead of winter. Love it. Hopefully our long range favors more of this. It seems like we continue this straight into Feb. Feb will be rock'n! no one is cancelling sh*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Feb will be rock'n! no one is cancelling sh*t That would be pure awesome! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 yeah, it's over bro I wholeheartedly agree. At this point we are so far along that unless it is a true late 70's style blizzard, I am ready for it to be over. Bring on an early spring and severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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