Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Hopefully this storm can rapidly deepen/bomb out quickly enough for another good wind event, though not really a fan of it hauling you know what into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 check out this ripping 850 transport from the gulf straight up the north friggin pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 check out this ripping 850 transport from the gulf straight up the north friggin pole great image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 check out this ripping 850 transport from the gulf straight up the north friggin pole Full blown firehose potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 ECMWF has been consistently more progressive than the GFS. That goes against conventional thinking in this type of setup though so it will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 ECMWF has been consistently more progressive than the GFS. That goes against conventional thinking in this type of setup though so it will be interesting to see what happens. yeah, slowing trend is expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Among the 12z runs, the GGEM is more like the ECMWF while the UKMET is sort of a compromise between the slower GFS and the other faster models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Hopefully this storm can rapidly deepen/bomb out quickly enough for another good wind event, though not really a fan of it hauling you know what into Canada. After the last two days, I'll pass on the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The gfs is absurd. Anywhere moisture coming off the ocean around NA is running well above normal. This inherently means evaporation will be higher than normal. Wild times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The gfs is absurd. Anywhere moisture coming off the ocean around NA is running well above normal. This inherently means evaporation will be higher than normal. Wild times Local AFD's seem to play down the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Local AFD's seem to play down the GFS Not surprising. Other models have a more progressive system and you want to be sure before talking about 5-10" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Some of the lowest CIPS scores I can remember seeing (especially farther down the list), using the Southern Plains domain at 96 hours. What's funny is that yesterday had higher scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Not in our subforum, but Monday looks to be one of the biggest threats, for Texas, since May, as Q said on Twitter per the NAM. For our forum, GFS and EURO seem to disagree, yet again. GFS seems slow with the storm while the EURO shoots it N. Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 18Z GFS has higher rains stretching even farther east, would have me getting 4 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 Not in our subforum, but Monday looks to be one of the biggest threats, for Texas, since May, as Q said on Twitter per the NAM. For our forum, GFS and EURO seem to disagree, yet again. GFS seems slow with the storm while the EURO shoots it N. Opinions? Slower is normally the way to go in very amplified patterns (and cutoffs), but I'm always a little hesitant to count out the ECMWF, and the faster solution does have other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Slower is normally the way to go in very amplified patterns (and cutoffs), but I'm always a little hesitant to count out the ECMWF, and the faster solution does have other model support. ILN favoring the Euro at this point. MODELS CONTINUE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING THE BULK OF RAIN ACROSS FCST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THIS EVENTUALLY MAY NOT BE NEEDED IF ECMWF IS CORRECT. OF COURSE IF GFS HOLDS TRUE THEN ALL POPS WOULD BE SHIFTED LATER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 ILN favoring the Euro at this point. I wonder what reason they are favoring it...is it just because it's the Euro? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I wonder what reason they are favoring it...is it just because it's the Euro? lol Probably because the background synoptics recently have been quite progressive. Even with a highly amplified system like this, it might be difficult for it to crawl along like these types of troughs/ULLs usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Not sure that I buy the slower solutions, especially with the Euro consistency and 12z Euro ensembles also leaning more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 Probably because the background synoptics recently have been quite progressive. Even with a highly amplified system like this, it might be difficult for it to crawl along like these types of troughs/ULLs usually do. See, there's a reason. Not that ILN didn't have one, but they didn't spell it out. My guess is that we might see the faster models slow down some, but I'm basically leaning on past history. Perhaps the fast solutions pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 One of the mets at IWX (Lonnie Fisher) mentioned couple of days ago that he was favoring the Euro due to the recent progressive pattern, as Andy pointed out above. However, if the trough develops like the GFS predicts, I'll take the slower solution FTW. I've seen too many fall troughs really hang up before finally ejecting to believe this one would behave any differently. Just my uneducated, anecdotal opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 00z GFS is speeding up some by the looks of it so maybe it is the start of a move toward the quicker models. The thing I keep thinking is man, if only that Canadian wave could dig farther south...we'd really blow up a huge bomb farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Looks like a big rain maker. Nice to have something to track again already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 FWIW, the record heaviest individual precip event for Chicago in the month of November is 3.60", back on November 11-13, 1881. Too early to say it will be in play but it's a possibility if an uber fast solution doesn't play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The GFS phases the cut off with the polar jet much quicker this run compared to previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Firehose of moisture on this run too. 3"+ from STL to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 Another image showing the impressive 850 mb southerly flow over a huge area...what is that, like 5,000 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 A good 4000 miles about Hoosier. CMC has a broad area of 2"+. Michigan gets more rain on this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png 3mb from being a bomb. Shame there's essentially no instability up to our latitude. But at least there'll be severe storms to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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