Juliancolton Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Lol...this is a re-creation...a computer enhanced fantasy. The operative word in your post is SUGGESTS winds of...no actual observation of such winds was made. This seems like a weird thing to get so passionate about. HURDAT is the best resource we have for historical context—you can't start telling people their records are wrong because you don't believe our reanalysis methods have advanced since 1983. Basic meteorology dictates that a storm which produced sustained surface winds of 47 mph at one station in the early-20th century was a lot stronger than 47 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This seems like a weird thing to get so passionate about. HURDAT is the best resource we have for historical context—you can't start telling people their records are wrong because you don't believe our reanalysis methods have advanced since 1983. Basic meteorology dictates that a storm which produced sustained surface winds of 47 mph at one station in the early-20th century was a lot stronger than 47 mph. I understand your take on the matter and certainly do not seek to ridicule you for it; my previous post nonwithstanding. However, I have a deep sense of fidelity to the concept of actual time of the event observations as the definitive guide to categorizing the storm in question. If no observations were made at the time that meet the requisite criteria for a hurricane, it cannot go down in my books as an actual hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I understand your take on the matter and certainly do not seek to ridicule you for it; my previous post nonwithstanding. However, I have a deep sense of fidelity to the concept of actual time of the event observations as the definitive guide to categorizing the storm in question. If no observations were made at the time that meet the requisite criteria for a hurricane, it cannot go down in my books as an actual hurricane. I'm rather uneasy with the concept of re-writing history based on inference rather than hard evidence. Its like that Brady Bunch episode...when the father told the kid about how innocent males sometimes go to jail because of "circumstantial evidence". Though the son, when attempting to regurgitate the colloquialism, called it "circumspecial" {Sic} Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I understand your take on the matter and certainly do not seek to ridicule you for it; my previous post nonwithstanding. However, I have a deep sense of fidelity to the concept of actual time of the event observations as the definitive guide to categorizing the storm in question. If no observations were made at the time that meet the requisite criteria for a hurricane, it cannot go down in my books as an actual hurricane. To bad it's in the books as an official hurricane!!! Explain to me how a 47mph tropical storm caused severe coastal damage such as washing away whole houses???? 80mph cane end of story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 To bad it's in the books as an official hurricane!!! Explain to me how a 47mph tropical storm caused severe coastal damage such as washing away whole houses???? 80mph cane end of story I think not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I understand your take on the matter and certainly do not seek to ridicule you for it; my previous post nonwithstanding. However, I have a deep sense of fidelity to the concept of actual time of the event observations as the definitive guide to categorizing the storm in question. If no observations were made at the time that meet the requisite criteria for a hurricane, it cannot go down in my books as an actual hurricane. I've done research on some very early HURDAT seasons, and a lot of the data does feel pretty artificial. Take this 1861 storm, for instance. The entire file is based on two ship reports, three days apart. It's a nice-looking track, but as far as I could tell, there's really nothing to confirm the two reports were related to the same system. The very next storm is even more vague. There was a record of storminess in NC sometime in October, but no track, date, or intensity could be discerned. The resulting system was sort of grandfathered into the database, with an arbitrary fix on an arbitrary date included because not enough was known about the storm to preclude its existence. Records obviously become exponentially more reliable as time goes on, but there are lots of "best guesses" and dubious extrapolations for the first ~half of the database. Still, like I said, it's the best thing we have, and it's crucial to have consistent methodology; that's what HURDAT provides first and foremost. Limiting records to what was observed is a recipe for a nice hodgepodge of fragmented TC chronologies... especially considering that as the satellite and recon era wears on, we have a growing base of data to use in building more accurate intensity models, which are being incorporated into the ongoing reanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 A little banter never hurt anyone. It's only a weather board You're right. So post it in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 the model addiction gets worse and worse Agreed. So do you have any thoughts on the next 5 days? It would be great to hear from a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 You're right. So post it in here. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 After the near to warmest May-Septemberon record, Long Beach was officially bumped up to tropical climate status. https://www.facebook.com/378345352262194/photos/a.380638145366248.87789.378345352262194/846090542154337/?type=3&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 After the near to warmest May-Septemberon record, Long Beach was officially bumped up to tropical climate status. https://www.facebook.com/378345352262194/photos/a.380638145366248.87789.378345352262194/846090542154337/?type=3&theater Your wink smiley is an obvious effort to quietly & inappropriately insert posts that clearly belong in the climate change forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Your wink smiley is an obvious effort to quietly & inappropriately insert posts that clearly belong in the climate change forum. Or he was joking because humid subtropical climate vs humid continental "(warm summers)" has been a topic of discussion here in the past as you already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Is it hipster to be a climate denier? At this point, it doesn't seem to make sense, it's on the level of witch burning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Try the Delmarva Peninsula Seriously loling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I wish it would rain already; my lawn is sort of brownish...the sprinklers went out of order in 2007...yes, 2007 it was. The problem is parts...the original manufacturer is out of business of course and my men have to fabricate replacements...takes them forever, just forever. Nothing works you know...you can't believe the problems that befall me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This next week of forecasting is going to be one hell of a test for the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Subsequent to surviving the Siege at Salem, the last 323 years have been a veritable breeze 4 me...in a relative sense. Since you were there was the great colonial hurricane really just a 47mph tropical storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Since you were there was the great colonial hurricane really just a 47mph tropical storm? All questions must be submitted on parchment and notarized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 All questions must be submitted on parchment and notarized... I'll get right on it. In the meantime how long till one of those dooms day model maps goes viral and people start freaking out over Sandy 2??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 No just no My favorite person of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'll get right on it. In the meantime how long till one of those dooms day model maps goes viral and people start freaking out over Sandy 2??????? I recall in that marvelous sequel known as Beneath the Planet of the Apes Charlton Heston speaking prophetically of a doomsday as Dr Zaius drew near...and his friend James Franciscus...when asked for assistance by the underground mutants against the marauding apes, cleverly retorted, "Go ahead and annihilate each other. I'll help no one." But perhaps the best exchange was between Franciscus and the head mutant subsequent to the "church" service...where the insane mutants paid homage to a weapon with a cobalt casing. Franciscus asked, "When may we hope to be released?" The mutant quickly replied, "Mr. Brent, you may hope whenever you wish." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 And I'm getting married Sunday... Can it not rain at all? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 And I'm getting married Sunday... Can it not rain at all? lol Congrats. Sorry man. This has got to suck for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 And I'm getting married Sunday... Can it not rain at all? lolCongrats, know the feeling, getting married next August. At least by Sunday the worst should be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Congrats, know the feeling, getting married next August. At least by Sunday the worst should be over. I thought the time frame was Sunday into Monday now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I thought the time frame was Sunday into Monday nowI guess it depends on your model of choice. I see the 18z GFS does landfall Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I guess it depends on your model of choice. I see the 18z GFS does landfall Sunday morning. Gotcha. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 LOL at the M ATL hoping the GFS is right...they can have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Whoever said that it was only a matter of time before the El Nino firehose showed up... go ahead and put a feather in your cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 LOL at the M ATL hoping the GFS is right...they can have it. Fortunately most of the models that show the hook back towards the coast have a landfall well south of our area....between NC and the Delmarva. Obviously a Delmarva landfall has big impacts even up this way but a NC landfall significantly lowers the risk of damage in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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