Bobby Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looks like the HWRF is on a heading for the Mid-Atlantic coast as a major hurricane. So Cat 3? Yeah I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Put "HWRF" on the auto-ban list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 HWRF At Cape Hatteras by hour 105 with 117mph. winds. HWRF Inland in Virgiana at 111hrs. and still a minimal hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 HWRF landfalls at Norfolk, VA at 00z Sunday. Pressure of 939.2mb. Max winds of 102MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 the model addiction gets worse and worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt Even better...didn't want to work the rest of the day anyway, ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 the model addiction gets worse and worse It's kind of bizarre. Pages and pages of people posting extreme HWRF/GFDL/CMC solutions, all the while reminding one another not to look at those models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It's kind of bizarre. Pages and pages of people posting extreme HWRF/GFDL/CMC solutions, all the while reminding one another not to look at those models.if anyone paid attention to the hwrf outside of direct threats to our region they'd know what a garbage model it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 HWRF landfalls at Norfolk, VA at 00z Sunday. Pressure of 939.2mb. Max winds of 102MPH. I'd toss it as Norfolk, VA is another spot...like the Georgia, Delmarva & Jersey coasts, that never see a landfalling hurricane. The spots north of Florida that are high risk are the coasts of SC & NC...especially around Hatteras...Long Island, the very short south coast of Rhode Island, SE MA, and the coast of Maine...and, of course, the maritime Provinces of Canada...though its invariably extratropical by then due to the Labrador Current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'd toss it as Norfolk, VA is another spot...like the Georgia, Delmarva & Jersey coasts, that never see a landfalling hurricane. The spots north of Florida that are high risk are the coasts of SC & NC...especially around Hatteras...Long Island, the very short south coast of Rhode Island, SE MA, and the coast of Maine...and, of course, the maritime Provinces of Canada...though its invariably extratropical by then due to the Labrador Current. How many times have we seen a tropical cyclone hook NW into the coast? Once in my lifetime so far. I'm not sure you can use standard climo here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'd toss it as Norfolk, VA is another spot...like the Georgia, Delmarva & Jersey coasts, that never see a landfalling hurricane. The spots north of Florida that are high risk are the coasts of SC & NC...especially around Hatteras...Long Island, the very short south coast of Rhode Island, SE MA, and the coast of Maine...and, of course, the maritime Provinces of Canada...though its invariably extratropical by then due to the Labrador Current. But we aren't talking about a normal re curving storm. I wouldn't toss or hug anything at this point. Not much consistency out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 How many times have we seen a tropical cyclone hook NW into the coast? Once in my lifetime so far. I'm not sure you can use standard climo here. None of the scenarios are physical impossibilities. But the thing I like to stress, above all other things, is my so-called First Iron Rule of Forecasting: You can't fight climatology. The associated branch of science is the forecaster's best friend...and if he knows how to properly apply it to his forecasting duties...he will be light years ahead of those who dispense with it. Like with any other endeavor in life; you play the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 stolen from twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 None of the scenarios are physical impossibilities. But the thing I like to stress, above all other things, is my so-called First Iron Rule of Forecasting: You can't fight climatology. The associated branch of science is the forecaster's best friend...and if he knows how to properly apply it to his forecasting duties...he will be light years ahead of those who dispense with it. Like with any other endeavor in life; you play the odds. Your wrong about the 1903 vagabond hurricane. It was a cat 1 with 80mph winds at landfall in Atlantic city. It's the only true tropical hurricane to hit New Jersey in modern times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think this will make landfall somewhere from Jersey to long island area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Your wrong about the 1903 vagabond hurricane. It was a cat 1 with 80mph winds at landfall in Atlantic city. It's the only true tropical hurricane to hit New Jersey in modern times The 1903 storm you cite was a tropical storm, not a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 47 mph when making landfall at Atlantic City. It was also the only landfalling tropical storm between 1821 and Sandy on the coast of the state of New Jersey. Hurricanes have maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. *Note: I'm rather annoyed I had to re-write this; as it was apparently deleted in the process of moving it to the Banter Thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 There's just being deleted,not moved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 1903 storm you cite was a tropical storm, not a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 47 mph when making landfall at Atlantic City. It was also the only landfalling tropical storm between 1821 and Sandy on the coast of the state of New Jersey. Hurricanes have maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. *Note: I'm rather annoyed I had to re-write this; as it was apparently deleted in the process of moving it to the Banter Thread. Im annoyed i have to move posts by people who should know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 There's just being deleted,not moved Well, I suppose I just write faster than they move... Why was I born brilliant & beautiful instead of rich? If you ruminate on it; its rather hard to possess the first two traits in the contemporary West and still fail to manifest the third...one has to be a bit of a screw up to achieve that, I suppose...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Im annoyed i have to move posts by people who should know better. What was I supposed to know? My post was a reply...not an opening salvo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Oh well, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 1903 storm you cite was a tropical storm, not a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 47 mph when making landfall at Atlantic City. It was also the only landfalling tropical storm between 1821 and Sandy on the coast of the state of New Jersey. Hurricanes have maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. *Note: I'm rather annoyed I had to re-write this; as it was apparently deleted in the process of moving it to the Banter Thread. Hmm? What am I missing? 19030916, 1100, L, HU, 39.1N, 74.7W, 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 1903 storm you cite was a tropical storm, not a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 47 mph when making landfall at Atlantic City. It was also the only landfalling tropical storm between 1821 and Sandy on the coast of the state of New Jersey. Hurricanes have maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. *Note: I'm rather annoyed I had to re-write this; as it was apparently deleted in the process of moving it to the Banter Thread. Where are you getting this 47mph nonsense from? It was a cat one with 80mph winds!!!! I'm on my phone so I can't post the track and details. There were hurricane fource winds on Long Island !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 A little banter never hurt anyone. It's only a weather board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Where are you getting this 47mph nonsense from? It was a cat one with 80mph winds!!!! I'm on my phone so I can't post the track and details. There were hurricane fource winds on Long Island !!! Ludlum said so...and he knew everything. See The New Jersey Weather Book. 1983. Rutgers University Press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Hmm? What am I missing? 19030916, 1100, L, HU, 39.1N, 74.7W, 70 What does that represent? You have to give me an observation of 74 mph winds or greater observed at a station on the NJ coast in 1903. Is that suppose to represent the Atlantic City marina...as I don't think there was any airport at Pomona back then. The coordinates look close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 What does that represent? You have to give me an observation of 74 mph winds or greater observed at a station on the NJ coast in 1903 It's the date. The full HURDAT file: A peripheral pressure of 997 mb (15Z on the 16th) suggests winds of at least 53 kt from the northern wind-pressure relationship - 70 kt chosen for best track which is the same as the original HURDAT. 990 mb was analyzed as the central pressure at landfall in Jarrell et al. (1992), which suggests winds of 63 kt from the northern wind-pressure relationship. Intensity at landfall is retained as a Category 1 at New Jersey (70 kt) - which agrees with Table 6 in Neumann et al. (1999)/U.S. hurricane characterization in HURDAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It's the date. The full HURDAT file: Lol...this is a re-creation...a computer enhanced fantasy. The operative word in your post is SUGGESTS winds of...no actual observation of such winds was made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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