CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Well many times there are two QPF max areas. One is normally with the LLJ, upslope, and the normal frontogenesis over areas like NY state and NNE. The other is with the meso low that can happen and enhance convection. So, it's a matter of where the meso low tracks too. I can't say if it will be over CT or SE MA. Somewhere in that area. There also can be renegade bands ahead of it too, it's not clear cut at all. If it had to guess, second max is CT to near BOS...somewhere in that area give or take. However, don't hold a gun to my head on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Well my line of thinking right or wrong is two relative max zones . SE New Eng and Berkshire into NNE. With a relative shaft zone in between. At least I put myself out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 GFS It's a plausible scenario. Certainly not definite at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Then there is the RGEM. Indicated rain more widespread thanks to digging trough. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015081012&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 And then 12KM NAM. Hmm..see a pattern here? That's right, it's that the max zones are all over the place. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015081012&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=208 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Right. It's silly for Kevin to apply the "same thing as every other event" logic. His modelology is getting quite good, finding the sometimes obscure guidance that matches his thoughts. Given the LLJ, we're almost guaranteed a SE upslope max zone. And like you say, another somewhere near the meso-low forcing. Doesn't really have a strong signal for coastal front enhancement, so that shouldn't be a factor robbing interior zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Nw zones will probaby have a longe period Of more stratiform type precip while central and eastern areas may have to wait and see where the triple point, warm front and meso low and convective elements set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Just looking at the BTV4, quite the impressive low level jet for early/mid August ripping north up eastern New York and western New England. It's got a core of 60kts at H85 moving north from BGM to ALB to BTV. Going to be a breezy day in the Champlain Valley where they can get much better mixing. Summits should also see some fairly strong winds. August11.jpg It is an unseasonably strong one I'd say, +3 anomaly or so at H8. Bufkit mixing out HIE to near 40 knot gusts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 This seems like one of those deals where see one of those landphoons on radar. Nice tight spin with convection near center of meso low and any strong winds in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 His modelology is getting quite good, finding the sometimes obscure guidance that matches his thoughts. Given the LLJ, we're almost guaranteed a SE upslope max zone. And like you say, another somewhere near the meso-low forcing. Doesn't really have a strong signal for coastal front enhancement, so that shouldn't be a factor robbing interior zones. Yeah the upslope should be good in favored spots. Might have to watch the hot tubs located on mtn streams in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 And then 12KM NAM. Hmm..see a pattern here? That's right, it's that the max zones are all over the place. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015081012&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=208 Yeah...that's 0.25" of QPF up here on that, and then another model run will have 1.75" or something. Just have to watch how the radar evolves. RGEM is just a region wide soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 It is an unseasonably strong one I'd say, +3 anomaly or so at H8. Bufkit mixing out HIE to near 40 knot gusts tomorrow. Yeah the SE downslope spots could get quite gusty if they can break the inversion around 2,000ft. We should see a fairly similar to winter-time SE flow upslope/downslope couplets in the hills/mountains. The GFS showed it quite well with the upsloping flow into the Berkshires to SVT then over to NH/Lakes Region/foothills. Minimum for LEB up through HIE/BML to the northwest of the Whites. Then another upslope/downslope couplet over the Green mountain spine and into the Champlain Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Any rain will be good rain, Been dry here over the last 4-6 weeks or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Don't look now, the 12z Euro jackpots Tolland. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Dry begets dry #persistence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Don't look now, the 12z Euro jackpots Tolland. We toss.sounds like Landphoon moves directly overhead. How much out of curiosity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 sounds like Landphoon moves directly overhead. How much out of curiosity? Near 2". Enjoy your landphoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Near 2". Enjoy your landphoon.Could you do us a favor and call it a landphoon in your afd today .. Just to start getting the term out there into circulation and public consumption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Could you do us a favor and call it a landphoon in your afd today .. Just to start getting the term out there into circulation and public consumption Give the people what they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Give the people what they want.Just like soon to be President Trump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Any rain will be good rain, Been dry here over the last 4-6 weeks or so yep, will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Give the people what they want. I prefer that you work miserymist into one next spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 I prefer that you work miserymist into one next spring. Now that has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Nice synoptic half to 2 inch region wide advertised on the Euro with embedded training leading to higher amounts in CT. Time will tell where that sets up but good drink for all. Low 70s all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 74/70 all day long tomorrow..with morning convection ..a break ..and another round of evening convection. Scattered around..winners..and losers..typical summer convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 74/70 all day long tomorrow..with morning convection ..a break ..and another round of evening convection. Scattered around..winners..and losers..typical summer convection It's going to be a little better than your typical summer convection. That kind of out-of-season LLJ should provide enough forcing to give most people a decent bath. There will be mesoscale jackpots, but it's not some binary forecast of all or nothing either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 It's going to be a little better than your typical summer convection. That kind of out-of-season LLJ should provide enough forcing to give most people a decent bath. There will be mesoscale jackpots, but it's not some binary forecast of all or nothing either. Yeah i see what you mean..but there's a few folks who have been saying/thinking this is just a general synoptic all day rain that gently soaks in. Seems like the vast majority of it is associated with big downpours and thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Yeah i see what you mean..but there's a few folks who have been saying/thinking this is just a general synoptic all day rain that gently soaks in. Seems like the vast majority of it is associated with big downpours and thunderstorms I mean expect embedded storms, but don't be surprised if there is a synoptic appeal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Wonder if GFS is into its "final-48 qpf slide" that was pretty consistent for here 2nd half of winter. Earlier runs (yesterday, this morning) gave AUG up to 1.2", but 12z down to 0.8". That amount would be fine, unless the slide were to continue/accelerate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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