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dmillz25

The Dog Days of Summer: August 2015 Discussion

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Guest Pamela

90 degree highs in mid September have a much different feel; however, due to the sun angle. The airmass can feel very warm and humid, but the sun loses its "bite" so to speak. Doesn't feel anywhere near as scorching.

 

 

Its all downhill after August 20th; all uphill subsequent to February 20th.

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Can't really judge that way though since averages naturally decline towards the end of August. It's hard to maintain a high mean like that towards the end of the month. We usually get a shot of autumnal weather after August 20th.

 

Even with the averages declining, the average August temperature is 75.2 in NYC. So the tenth warmest August is 77.7

or +2.5. With the warmer weather continuing into late month, NYC could finish with a +2.5 or greater.

We'll have to see what happens in the last week of the month. The last El Nino summer to finish August

at exactly 77.7 was 2002.

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Overnight guidance came in very stormy for next week. The Euro looked a little over the top with this coastal next week, and with recent track record I understand the skepticism, but the WAR ridge will be in a favorable position to get Gulf moisture up this way, so who knows. 

 

f168.gif

 

The 06z GFS even gives us some tropical love from a disturbance in the Eastern Gulf that ends up off the NJ coast in about two weeks. Yes, total fantasy, but something to break up this horrendous string of boring weather.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_49.png

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GFS fantasy.   Why bet against the summer trend?  go slightly to moderately above normal and mostly dry next week.  Maybe a boomer here or there

It hasn't been dry here, maybe in your area it has been. August has been drier but July was quite wet and stormy. The 12z GFS continued with the same look and still has the fantasy tropical system.

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It hasn't been dry here, maybe in your area it has been. August has been drier but July was quite wet and stormy. The 12z GFS continued with the same look and still has the fantasy tropical system.

yeah, very little rain here going back to July 1st.  A couple of big dumps have saved us, but bone dry has been the rule. 

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We are going to be paying the piper eventually for all this glorious weather.

How about an October 2005 redux (I think on the year?)  Rained a foot here in a week's time.

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We are going to be paying the piper eventually for all this glorious weather.

We already paid for it in February/March, we did nothing to deserve that lol.

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We already paid for it in February/March, we did nothing to deserve that lol.

Haha yeah, if anything we should be getting repaid for the cold, which in my opinion we are. Another great Friday Saturday Sunday coming up, how many is that now?

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Heat looks to be on par with the hottest temps we've seen thus far. Very close to being noteworthy but not quite hot enough.

The heat does look to last several days and we should add a bunch of 90s and easily make this an above average summer.

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At least 5 more 90 degree days for NYC out of the next 7.   Above normal temps. to continue maybe till the 28.    Only bothersome brief showers possible till 8/21. 

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