Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Since we can't seem to get a squall line in the high heat and dews this summer..let's see if we can get some cold pool large hailers and gusty winds Friday CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 21s 21 seconds ago from earlier....speculating about some late week t-storms: http://www.capecodweather.net/technical-discussion/t-storm-speculation/ … Jumping ahead a bit…Friday may be a day for afternoon gusty showers, thunder and pea size hailers across much of New England. An upper level low will rotate east-southeast from James Bay today to the Canadian Maritimes by Friday. Model guidance is in fair agreement on a potent shortwave rotating around the upper level low and crossing New England Friday afternoon. Associated with this shortwave is a pocket of very cold air aloft – 500 mb temps on the latest NAM charts (shown) are forecast to plunge to -14 to -16C during the day on Friday (by comparison…on a day like today the 500 mb temperatures is around -6C). Similar values are showing up on the GFS and ECMWF models. 700 mb temps drop to 0 to -2C across the area (today these temps are running around 8C). As a result, the freezing level will fall down under 10,000 feet, with WBZ heights under 8500 feet(!). While the atmosphere won’t have much moisture to work with, that kind of cold aloft combined with strong July surface heating and some decent shortwave forcing is the perfect environment for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Even in a weak shear, relatively low CAPE environment, you’d likely see numerous popcorn type showers. Add in the northwest flow and very low freezing heights and you’ve got a good recipe for afternoon hailers. Something to watch in the days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Great write-up by Phil! Just went ahead and looked and it's a pretty classic cold pool setup. He isn't kidding about that s/w plunging into the region. On the GFS at least it moves right over SNE during peak heating. Typically with these setups you don't usually see high dewpoints and that looks to be the case here as well. Looks like dews will be in the lower 50's per GFS so moisture will be extremely limited but with such strong lift we'd see some activity pop. Small hail certainly a possibility (larger hail doesn't appear all that likely given lack of moisture) along with some pretty strong winds given pretty hefty dewpoint depression in the llvls and degree of shear aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Cant remember what year it was but had 3 storms with pea sized hail also one of the storms had a small area of clouds moving clockwise over my house no idea what caused it but there was no funnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Cant remember what year it was but had 3 storms with pea sized hail also one of the storms had a small area of clouds moving clockwise over my house no idea what caused it but there was no funnel 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 A few years ago my parents on the Spfld/ East Longmeadow line had a shovelable hail event that destroyed their garden. Just up the street from them at Franconia golf course it was like 5 inches deep. It was a cold pool hailer set up I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2015 Author Share Posted July 22, 2015 Not sure why BOX thinks it's only far ENE.. Setup is there for all of NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Not sure why BOX thinks it's only far ENE.. Setup is there for all of NE East is certainly favored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Cant remember what year it was but had 3 storms with pea sized hail also one of the storms had a small area of clouds moving clockwise over my house no idea what caused it but there was no funnel Used to get a few cold air funnels in Minnesota. Always a cause of excitement for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 this threat dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 In SNE pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2015 Author Share Posted July 23, 2015 this threat dead?No highest threat is E Ma but anyone can get a storm river east tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 No highest threat is E Ma but anyone can get a storm river east tomorrow Well I'll be up at Jay Peak area, looks like BTV thinks there might be a chance there for a quick downpour for their zone as well. I just want to see some hail , my great hail drought continues..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 A few years ago my parents on the Spfld/ East Longmeadow line had a shovelable hail event that destroyed their garden. Just up the street from them at Franconia golf course it was like 5 inches deep. It was a cold pool hailer set up I believe. It was two years ago. I drove through it in my brand new car. I was certain my windshield and sun roof were going to crack (they didn't). No highest threat is E Ma but anyone can get a storm river east tomorrow Meh. Maybe something on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Should I bother firing up the shield tonight? Im headed to Conway for the Sat/Sun to ride Thomas the Tank Engine... Ill likely miss anything good Sunday with my luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Should I bother firing up the shield tonight? Don't bother...it failed last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Tepid pool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 24, 2015 Author Share Posted July 24, 2015 ...NEW ENGLAND... A SEASONALLY COOL MID-LEVEL TROUGH /-13C TO -17C AT 500 MB/ WILLPIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A 30-40 KTMID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD MAINLY OVERWESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EMBEDDEDTHUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STEADILY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITHIN A MODESTLYMOIST/WEAKLY INHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE UPDRAFTS WILL BESUFFICIENTLY DEEP/BUOYANT TO ATTAIN LIGHTNING...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSERATES/OVERALL BUOYANCY...AS NOTED IN 12Z REGIONAL OBSERVEDSOUNDINGS...SHOULD GENERALLY TEMPER UPDRAFT INTENSITY/RELATED SEVEREPOTENTIAL. EVEN SO...THIS CONVECTION MAY NONETHELESS PRODUCE SOMESTRONGER WINDS GUSTS/SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Watch the back door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Woops, been posting in the general tstorm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Don't bother...it failed last time I forgot to plug the damn thing in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Tremendous cold pool sprinkles at the Pit. 73.2/55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Nice T-warned supercell NE of albany... River effect helicity at work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Nice T-warned supercell NE of albany... River effect helicity at work? Meh^2. Nice looking low level rotation but LCL heights around over 1600 meters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Meh^2. Nice looking low level rotation but LCL heights around over 1600 meters. Rotation looks a little broad too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Rotation looks a little broad too It did tighten up for a period... but yes now it's broad. Given those LCL heights it ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 It did tighten up for a period... but yes now it's broad. Given those LCL heights it ain't happening. 1600 meters is pretty damn high. How's dual pol looking for hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Probably pretty to look at, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Probably pretty to look at, though. Yup - I'm guessing quite photogenic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 That was the loudest thunder i have heard all year!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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