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Superstorm93

Tropical Storm Bill

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Considering we have recon heading in later today and this should be a fairly high-impact system regardless if it manages to develop, I figured this deserves its own thread now. Most of the models are showing parts of Texas getting inundated once again. 

 

There has been one thing that has caught my eye though, the hi-res models (including the newly upgraded 2km HWRF) all show 91L intensifying just before it makes landfall in Texas. This could be an interesting situation as the models, including the ECMWF, all show an upper level air pattern that would support this to maintain a decent structure well-inland. The HWRF has an Erin type of situation for Oklahoma. 

 

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My prediction: SlopGyre™

 

Effects: Bendy Trees, Water where water isn't normally.

 

Effects on this forum: North wind watching, Long radar loops, Maps with pretty colors (steve has already filled this requirement).

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Also looks like a significant rainmaker northward into the Midwest/Ohio Valley area with some models suggesting additional deepening farther inland with potential interaction/phasing with a mid-latitude system.

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My prediction: SlopGyre™

 

Effects: Bendy Trees, Water where water isn't normally.

 

Effects on this forum: North wind watching, Long radar loops, Maps with pretty colors (steve has already filled this requirement).

 

Oh c'mon James, I've always been that way  :P

 

And we could see a toned down version of Allison with this one. Really concerned about the flooding potential this could bring across most of the county. 

 

d00b454ff1ee4bc703e92f3fef0d5bc7.png

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Oh c'mon James, I've always been that way  :P

 

I know, I didn't say that it was bad.  :D  Ooohh pretty colors.

 

Anyway, obviously the biggest issue with this system is flooding, but to be honest, it's moving pretty fast for a tropical system. The background flow is fairly strong, forward speed should be around 20kts. This won't be another Allison, it's just moving too fast, I don't expect any crazy 15-20+" reports. Any 72hr. totals should be in the 10-15" range if they get train'd on. Train'ing will be on the northeast side so that the background flow is parallel with the low level flow around the cyclone. 

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I know, I didn't say that it was bad.  :D  Ooohh pretty colors.

 

Anyway, obviously the biggest issue with this system is flooding, but to be honest, it's moving pretty fast for a tropical system. The background flow is fairly strong, forward speed should be around 20kts. This won't be another Allison, it's just moving too fast, I don't expect any crazy 15-20+" reports. Any 72hr. totals should be in the 10-15" range if they get train'd on. Train'ing will be on the northeast side so that the background flow is parallel with the low level flow around the cyclone. 

 

Yeah, I definitely don't expect those unholy amounts, but they should still be impressive regardless. 

 

 

 

 

 

000

ABNT20 KNHC 141742

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough of low pressure has moved off of the Yucatan

peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The

system is accompanied by an area of thunderstorms and winds to

near gale force well to the east of the trough, but it does not yet

have a well-defined closed circulation. This weather system is

expected to move northwestward over the next couple of days across

the western Gulf of Mexico, where upper-level winds are forecast to

gradually become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation. An

Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the

system late this afternoon, with another mission planned for

Monday morning. Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of

Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For additional

information, please see High Seas forecasts as well as products

issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

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Ch-Ch-Cherry time!

 

One thing that Steve and I were talking about off forum was the potential tornado threat. Take a look at this sharrpy sounding off the NAM for Tuesday Morning. Insane amount of helicity being thrown around with good low level CAPE.

 

post-741-0-50275100-1434305497_thumb.png

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Wrt OP I did find it very interesting that models had the consolidating and intensifying as it moved over North Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. Makes me wonder if the increased soil moisture from the flooding rains are feeding back into the models as helping the issue.

Still, the good news is that it at least doesn't show it stalling.. Should move out pretty fast even though it will still result in too much rain for already drenched areas.

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GFS almost shows an Erin repeat over TX/OK.  You can see a strong tight closed h7 low for after landfall, along with a precip bullseye.

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Per the latest satellite pics, 91L has become better organized and TS force sustained winds are now being picked up by recon over a sizeable area in the E/NE sector. This should go right to a TS Bill designation and skip TD once it is finally designated (very high chance), which could be very shortly.

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Highest FL winds found by recon, over 50 knots, may have been as much as about 100 miles ENE of the center. I don't know if this is yet tightly organized enough to be designated a TC. However, if it is, it would almost definitely be designated a TS.

Any other opinions?

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On the brink of being assigned TC status, but it looks like there are multiple LLCs, so that may hold back the designation. With strongish convection flaring up, I can see consolidation in the next few hours around 25.5 and 26N

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The NHC held off on naming the system with a Special Tropical Weather Outlook released about 15 minutes ago.   Still time through later and into tomorrow.

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to report on results of the
aircraft reconnaissance mission.

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating the area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico all
morning. Data from the mission indicate that the circulation
is highly elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Therefore the
system is not a tropical cyclone and advisories are not being
initiated at this time. However, the low still has the potential to
become a tropical storm at any time before it reaches the Texas
coast sometime tomorrow...

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It's clearly getting better organized looking at the vis imagery. Shear is currently ~15kts, so it should allow gradual development. TS designation is a high probability event, IMO.

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I'm not really sure why they've put off classification, honestly. It's messy, but I think we've seen messier, and I maintain that a named storm carries more weight with people, no matter how clear forecasters try to be. Either way, it looks like banding features are starting to form in earnest.

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I'm not really sure why they've put off classification, honestly. It's messy, but I think we've seen messier, and I maintain that a named storm carries more weight with people, no matter how clear forecasters try to be. Either way, it looks like banding features are starting to form in earnest.

I'm fairly sure we saw worse-looking Cat 1s in 2014. :whistle:

 

QCYMyNZ.jpg

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Kinda surprising how quickly this is getting together without a well-defined circulation. The banding features may be enough for the NHC to classify this in a couple hours.

Once that UL flow goes from cyclonic to anti-cyclonic 91L should be over some pretty warm shelf waters. Interesting little system so far.

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

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Special Message from NHC Issued 15 Jun 2015 20:08 UTC   

NHC is not planning to initiate advisories on the system in the Gulf of Mexico at 5 PM. Next aircraft will be in the system before 8 PM.

 

 

:D

 

We'll have to wait, but it certainly looks like a TC to me. Structure is there, and it has developed a small anticyclone aloft.

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Recon mission later on should be interesting.

 

All that latent heat release was able to break down that upper level low much quicker than I thought. Now we have a system with an established upper level anti-cyclone headed towards 29C shelf waters. The only limiting factors that I can see as of now are that the low level circulation is still a bit ragged and also that this is moving at a decent clip. I wouldn't be shocked to see a 60 knot system out of this when it makes landfall. Also expect it to stay together for a good day or two over land. 

 

52ab5f933305243279fd2d59cdb776d6.png

 

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pretty good-looking for an invest. 

 

had a feeder band or two move through here over the last couple hours.  muggy but pleasant outside at 85/76.

 

many grocery stores around this part of south houston are running low or out of water, batteries, and bread.  flood gates already being closed at institutions and hospitals around the medical center in preparation for tomorrow's rain.  i'm genuinely surprised and impressed how seriously the city is taking the storm given that it still hasn't been named or had warnings issued for it.  i guess everyone still remembers june 2001.

 

recon should be approaching the center within an hour... should be interesting.

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pretty good-looking for an invest. 

 

had a feeder band or two move through here over the last couple hours.  muggy but pleasant outside at 85/76.

 

many grocery stores around this part of south houston are running low or out of water, batteries, and bread.  flood gates already being closed at institutions and hospitals around the medical center in preparation for tomorrow's rain.  i'm genuinely surprised and impressed how seriously the city is taking the storm given that it still hasn't been named or had warnings issued for it.  i guess everyone still remembers june 2001.

 

recon should be approaching the center within an hour... should be interesting.

 

Honestly I think a lot of the preparation and a tad of panic is due to all the flooding we had in May. That's still fresh on the mind for a lot of folks. Either way its good to see such preparations being taken - although I have to wonder if folks aren't overdoing it a little. There's going to be flooding, rain, but not much else besides that. Some locations will see catastrophic flooding, but I don't expect that to be the majority of folks. 

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AF304 is in right now and appears to be showing a better organized system as opposed to this morning's recon. Pressures are ~1003 mb, maximum sustained winds are 40-45 knots.

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Honestly I think a lot of the preparation and a tad of panic is due to all the flooding we had in May. That's still fresh on the mind for a lot of folks. Either way its good to see such preparations being taken - although I have to wonder if folks aren't overdoing it a little. There's going to be flooding, rain, but not much else besides that. Some locations will see catastrophic flooding, but I don't expect that to be the majority of folks. 

 

doesn't help that the national media hype machine is in Houston already too... I honestly expect flooding, heck even as far north as up here in the metroplex especially around the lakes as most lakes haven't been able to release the pressure a lot as the Trinity was still so full but I don't see it being as bad as Allison.. but good to see the preps taking place for sure... you can always keep the water and batteries for the rest of the season :)

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I agree an Allison type scenario is unlikely. What does concern me is that I don't expect much if any weakening once the storm moves inland. So much moisture in place already will keep the system from weakening too much. If we end up with an Erin type repeat not only will we have to deal with more tornadoes but the threat of wind damage as well. 

 

doesn't help that the national media hype machine is in Houston already too... I honestly expect flooding, heck even as far north as up here in the metroplex especially around the lakes as most lakes haven't been able to release the pressure a lot as the Trinity was still so full but I don't see it being as bad as Allison.. but good to see the preps taking place for sure... you can always keep the water and batteries for the rest of the season :)

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