on_wx Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 00z NAM/4 km doesn't look to be backing off much for tomorrow. Some really impressive hodographs showing up around 21z E of Georgian Bay. The lack of appreciable convection today so far will likely help tomorrow and there does look to be capping early on in the day to prevent premature initiation. Edit: NAM also looking quite interesting in IA/vicinity on Thursday again. 4 km looks like it has a ton of junk through the morning though. Not much but wilderness east of Georgian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Not much but wilderness east of Georgian Also SW towards Barrie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 I got word of the severe potential in Ontario today from the news, some saying isolated tornadoes are possible. Doesn't look like MBY is going to get any of course, that's the norm! I think there will be a tornado somewhere, how strong and where is going to determine how June 10, 2015 is remembered here. I'll be watching in case something crazy happens as this is about the time of year for that. I've been tuned-out weather wise for quite a long while and I should write a little something about my thoughts in the complaint thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 4 km NAM low level shear is pretty sick in IA on Thursday, here's a sample at Fort Dodge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Model guidance has inched north with the heaviest rain on Thursday. Widespread 1-3+" across much of southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Latest Hi-Res models suggest main threat today (if anything) should mainly be in Indiana, between developing morning convection limiting daytime heating to an extent further NE and moisture advection on past runs probably being somewhat overdone. Ultimately though, the capping seems hard to overcome everywhere later today as far as widespread activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Some quality t-storm action going on right now. Woke me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Soaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 NAM's really in its own world now. It has about 3500 to 4500 J/KG of CAPE overhead around 21z, while every other model has the front south of here by that with with not nearly as much CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Pop up showers and storms around the turnpike this morning. Even a T'storm warning in NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Got about 1" of rain in 45 minutes from the earlier storm, plus a tenth or so from heavy rain showers before that. Lots of stuff popping up area wide now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 I had an alright storm this morning, it was constant rolling thunder from a line moving quickly. Some standard CC lightning. I think I may be more into it today; temperatures were boosted from 21-22ºC to 27ºC here, got put under a patchwork tornado watch (no thunderstorm watches?), and the sun came out again. I bet money there is wind damage from the line in cottage country, there always is something even the morning round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Looks like things are still primed to go here. Just had a morning storm roll through, but north of I-80 looks pretty clear at this point. Atmosphere looks like it will be able to have 3-6 hours of destabilization before storms spark up again. Already back up to 77/68 at KUSE (Wauseon). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1151 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 UPDATE 1133 AM CDT MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA. WHILE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INITIALLY SLOWED THE WARMING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THE PRECIPITATION HAS HELPED SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND AIDED IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR DAVENPORT (KDVN)...THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FREEPORT (KFEP) TO NEAR RACINE WI (KRAC). THE THERMAL RIDGE IS MOVING OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN THIS WARMER AIR DOWN. HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...THE HIGHEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR...SO CONTINUE TO TAKE CAUTION AS IT IS MUGGIER THAN IT HAS BEEN THIS FAR IN 2015. NO EVIDENCE OF ANY LAKE BREEZE ON TMDW RADAR CONSISTENT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL HOLDING ABOVE 15 KT FROM THE SW. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH WE ARE STILL CAPPED PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED LATER TODAY WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE FOCUS DOES CONTINUE TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 AFTER 4 PM...WITH A NARROW WINDOW FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-88 AFTER 3 PM. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS AXIS MAY EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT CURRENTLY IS NOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WEAK SE ORIENTED STORM MOTION VECTORS IS A CONCERN...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL THE ADDITIONAL MAIN HAZARDS GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 KT. KMD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 4 km NAM still looks rather dangerous tomorrow near the WF in Iowa, the low level shear it is projecting near the boundary is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 89/63 here....with numerous upper 60 and 70 DPs south and west of LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Still appear on track for good storms this afternoon near and south of the front in IA, IL and IN. Looking at a subtle speed max over northern IA that's caused an increase in ACCAS over eastern IA. Once the wave interacts with the frontal zone, also aided by convergence, should see storms fire. RAP and HRRR seem to be responding to this with initiation between 20-21z near the I-88 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 4 km NAM still looks rather dangerous tomorrow near the WF in Iowa, the low level shear it is projecting near the boundary is incredible. 12z 4km NAM was also lightning up the warm front in northern IL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 SPC extended the slight risk tomorrow all the way to here. I guess their expectation is the warm front is going to light up tomorrow quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 12z 4km NAM was also lightning up the warm front in northern IL as well. Plenty of directional shear but low level flow is a bit on the weak side until later in the day. Worth keeping an eye on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Tornado warned storm E of Georgian Bay in the Burk's Falls area is near warm front, with accordingly enhanced low level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 SPC extended the slight risk tomorrow all the way to here. I guess their expectation is the warm front is going to light up tomorrow quite a bit. That, or a propagating MCS tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 That, or a propagating MCS tomorrow night. Sounds like an initial area of storms in N IL moving east and then more development farther west. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SPECIFICS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR THURSDAY REMAIN UNCLEAR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY NOT BE ESPECIALLY STEEP...DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. INHIBITION MAY BE STRONG ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAR NORTH/EAST AS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AT LEAST INITIALLY ...THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE SOME STRENGTHENING OCCURS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA AND MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS. A BELT OF 30-50 KT WESTERLY MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...INCLUDING AREAS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. WITH MIXED LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000+ J/KG...THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE POST FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY INCLUDE ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AND SEVERAL EVOLVING STORM CLUSTERS. THERE APPEARS A SIGNAL IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT AN INITIAL AREA OF FORCING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING/ORGANIZING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...CONVECTION MAY INITIATE AND BECOME FOCUSED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AS WELL AS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS KANSAS...AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO THURSDAY EVENING. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY SURFACE LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Tornado warned storm E of Georgian Bay in the Burk's Falls area is near warm front, with accordingly enhanced low level shear.Thoughts on storm initiation farther southwest? Across SW Ont? Shear/cape/supercell comp look good but some people are calling a bust already?!?Sent from my SGH-I747M using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Thoughts on storm initiation farther southwest? Across SW Ont? Shear/cape/supercell comp look good but some people are calling a bust already?!? Sent from my SGH-I747M Those people aren't very smart, there will be initiation later on with the shortwave trough approaching from the west. Main question is how strong low level directional shear will be. Surface winds may tend to veer later on although it's possible that there might be mesoscale boundaries leftover from the previous convection that may lead to enhanced tornado potential (and also the synoptic warm front over east-central ON). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Those people aren't very smart, there will be initiation later on with the shortwave trough approaching from the west. Main question is how strong low level directional shear will be. Surface winds may tend to veer later on although it's possible that there might be mesoscale boundaries leftover from the previous convection that may lead to enhanced tornado potential (and also the synoptic warm front over east-central ON).Thank you for clearing that up.. I thought it was premature! Sent from my SGH-I747M using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 starting to see lake breeze CU, HRRR develops a cell overhead and takes it SE along the lake michigan shoreline...believable scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 91/66 with aggitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Some interesting storms popping up in Canada. Cell moving towards Kawartha Lakes looks like it is rotating Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 MD out. 40% chance of a watch. Basically a "we have no idea what's gonna happen" type of forecast which seems like all forecasts for NWOH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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