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GaWx

Summer 2015 pattern discussion

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It does have lower to mid 90's next Tues thru Thur, it would have been more accurate to say 90-95 degree heat and its for 3 days....he seems to not notice the rest of the run which has temps at or below normal for most of us and is at best seasonal for this time of year.....I suppose that doesn't fit his 1993 super drought inferno narrative..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015060212&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

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When I said everyone in NC might get 3 inches of rain, I was just saying I might be wrong about the widespread rain the models were showing for this week. Just using hyperbole to make my point that I could be wrong about my opinion in regards to the rain the models were showing. 

 

Wait....What the heck are you trying to say?

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Wait....What the heck are you trying to say?

 

That I doubt the widespread rain the models were showing for NC. But I could be wrong, and saying maybe everyone will get 3 inches of rain was just an exaggeration about me maybe being wrong. 

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It's just as I thought along the I-85 corridor in SC today. Not a storm in sight for the GSP metro so far. If things don't change, it'll be yet another busted 70% chance of rain.

 

Welp...~50% coverage so far. I imagine with new cells developing and storm motions...we'll see 70% or greater coverage when all is said and done. Just a guess. 

 

post-866-0-51210200-1433273290_thumb.png

 

 

Good thing we didn't go with a 20 pop yesterday, huh? 

 

post-866-0-09318400-1433273345_thumb.png

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Amazing to see someone arguing with one of the best mets on this entire board...during the summer about pops. Seriously? In other news on the other side of I-85 in CLT it looks like were ramping up for some heavy stuff. 

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That I doubt the widespread rain the models were showing for NC. But I could be wrong, and saying maybe everyone will get 3 inches of rain was just an exaggeration about me maybe being wrong. 

 

I think this stems from the fact that you don't look at the models and only read what other people write about them.  Models have not been showing a widespread heavy rain event.  They have been showing a wetter pattern with enhanced chances of showers and thunderstorms.  People post precipitation maps, which you see, that shows big areas of greens and blues and purples and oranges.  But if you understand the mechanism behind what's driving precipitation chances (in this case showers and storms rather than a big synoptic scale widespread rain event), then it will also be evident that there will be plenty of people that see 3" of rain and plenty of people that see little to no rain.  That is the nature of showers and storms.  If you looked at what the models were showing instead of cumulative 384hr precipitation maps, you would not be confused about this.

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It does have lower to mid 90's next Tues thru Thur, it would have been more accurate to say 90-95 degree heat and its for 3 days....he seems to not notice the rest of the run which has temps at or below normal for most of us and is at best seasonal for this time of year.....I suppose that doesn't fit his 1993 super drought inferno narrative..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015060212&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

Actually June of 1993 was not too hot. The heat came in July that year and in to August. Over 30 straight days of near 100 temps here. We had under .50 inch of rain from June 1 through around Sept 15 that summer.

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Welp...~50% coverage so far. I imagine with new cells developing and storm motions...we'll see 70% or greater coverage when all is said and done. Just a guess.

85coord_lol.png

Good thing we didn't go with a 20 pop yesterday, huh?

20pop_lol.png

I was in the 80% of nothing! Right where all the clusters of 0's are in central Geenville county.

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I was in the 80% of nothing! Right where all the clusters of 0's are in central Geenville county.

 

I'm sorry about your backyard?

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Actually June of 1993 was not too hot. The heat came in July that year and in to August. Over 30 straight days of near 100 temps here. We had under .50 inch of rain from June 1 through around Sept 15 that summer.

Well the good news is you'll get more rain the first week of June 2015 than all the summer of 1993. So already you'll be doing better than 1993.  

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It's just as I thought along the I-85 corridor in SC today. Not a storm in sight for the GSP metro so far. If things don't change, it'll be yet another busted 70% chance of rain.

 

Out of curiousity, wouldn't this be a spot on hit of 30% chance of no rain?

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It's just as I thought along the I-85 corridor in SC today. Not a storm in sight for the GSP metro so far. If things don't change, it'll be yet another busted 70% chance of rain.

QFT

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Well the good news is you'll get more rain the first week of June 2015 than all the summer of 1993. So already you'll be doing better than 1993.  

Not yet. We have less than .25 here and not looking for anymore for a while.

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It's going to take a tropical system for my area here to get more than .25 of rain on any given day. They are doing everything possible to stay away from here it seems

 

You make the most ridiculous posts ever lol....looking to your west there is a better than even chance that prediction isn't going to last till midnight....

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You make the most ridiculous posts ever lol....looking to your west there is a better than even chance that prediction isn't going to last till midnight....

The radar looked MUCH BETTER than that last night, and closer too, but we got less than .25. Why should tonight be any different.

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0.03" so far today.  What a washout!

your gauge under a roof? got a monsoon yesterday in northern mooresville yesterday

 

EDIT: didnt see the "today". works killing me today haha

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The radar looked MUCH BETTER than that last night, and closer too, but we got less than .25. Why should tonight be any different.

Sounds like you're halfway there just after 2 days of the month of June.

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Sounds like you're halfway there just after 2 days of the month of June.

The question is though, when do we get more. The 18z gfs says not until maybe the weekend, if then. It also brings low 90's back well before any forecasts have that in them. As for as widespread heavy rain you can forget it. We need a tropical system to get a decent rainfall around here it seems.

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The question is though, when do we get more. The 18z gfs says not until maybe the weekend, if then. It also brings low 90's back well before any forecasts have that in them. As for as widespread heavy rain you can forget it. We need a tropical system to get a decent rainfall around here it seems.

This was never gonna be a widespread heavy rain event. Also, isn't the 18z the least accurate of all the runs, and we know how good the models have been this year. lol All this was gonna be was greatly increased rain chances daily. Its certainly has gotten wetter here the past 2 days than the majority of last month. But this was never gonna be what TX and OK got all of last month.

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I'd look for the chances of precip to drop to 20% tomorrow west of I-77 and on down to 0% Thursday and Friday. That upper low is moving east faster and farther than it was supposed to.

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The chances will be cut back though. You do not get many storms with 55 degree dewpoints and that's the kind of air coming into NC now. There will be 1 or 2 storms at best over the GSP, HKY, AVL, and ATL areas tomorrow. Should be more east of I-77. Dont let the 60% chance gsp has for it's cwa fool you. That wont verify tomorrow.

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The chances will be cut back though. You do not get many storms with 55 degree dewpoints and that's the kind of air coming into NC now. There will be 1 or 2 storms at best over the GSP, HKY, AVL, and ATL areas tomorrow. Should be more east of I-77. Dont let the 60% chance gsp has for it's cwa fool you. That wont verify tomorrow.

Im in Blythewood east of 77, and under the KCAE area, not GSP,  North Carolina or Atlanta. Im watching quite a lightning storm as i type.

 

Getting special weather and dangerous weather alerts on my phone.

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Im in Blythewood east of 77, and under the KCAE area, not GSP,  North Carolina or Atlanta. Im watching quite a lightning storm as i type.

 

Getting special weather and dangerous weather alerts on my phone.

Yeah you still have a decent chance tomorrow I think. Most other areas west of you will get downsloped and thus much drier. Yep I just looked at the radar and you do have a big storm over you. Congrats.

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Will be the second one for the day. had a storm literally blow up right over my neighborhood.

 

Big raindrops now landing on the deck.

 

Its coming down in buckets now.

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I have enjoyed my 0.98 inch of rainfall I've picked up so far today.  About to get another quarter inch in this next batch on my doorstep.  Can't wait until I pick up even more rain tomorrow and pretty much every day this week.

 

It's amazing how big of a swing this has been weatherwise:  I went from 3+ weeks without a drop to almost daily rainfall for the past week and for the foreseeable future.  GSP has been all over this new pattern.  The paid professionals have done a fantastic job getting this one right.  I see no reason to doubt their expertise going forward seeing as how their track record has been pretty stellar lately.  They got the dry right and now they've gotten the wet right.  Kudos, isohume (and your colleagues)!

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