eekuasepinniW Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Feels like a big damage day to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Looking at radar trends, it appears most of the action forms east of Orh towards SE Ma and Ri It'll be well NW of there then dropping SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Early Aftn NW CT- Keene - Lakes Mid Aftn NYC Hartford NE CT Kittery SE NH NE MA Evening Boston PVD Corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 ...SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...ANDPERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERNAND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMSARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGWIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE....NEW ENGLAND...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE.THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NY/PA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATERTODAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THISREGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S HELPING TO YIELDAFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONSAGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING AFTERNOONTHUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF VT/NH/ME/MA. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDGUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVERME SUGGEST A MARGINAL RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Wiz pants tent detection just pinged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 That's pretty sweet...vivid cloud structure. Good catch for today. I'm guessing it was awfully shelfy across central NH when that complex really started bowing out around Thornton/Campton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Well defined circulation just north of buffalo. Close to the actual s/w I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Cells beginning to fire over the border and near Pittsburgh NH as well as NW Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Special statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook both mention hail as possibility I would love to see a nickel producer, but that almost never happens in my area. Even dime sized are very very rare here Yeah what is up with that? I feel when I lived in Natick I saw hail every couple years. Granted this will be only my 3rd summer in this area. A greater quantity of storms out this way though. And I'm just curious as to the point of this thread? It's annoying switching between 3 threads when there are so few posts a day..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Yeah what is up with that? I feel when I lived in Natick I saw hail every couple years. Granted this will be only my 3rd summer in this area. A greater quantity of storms out this way though. And I'm just curious as to the point of this thread? It's annoying switching between 3 threads when there are so few posts a day..... I think the title pretty much covers this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1030 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...PORTIONS OF VT...MA...CT...SERN NYCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 281530Z - 281630ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AHEADOF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THEAFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESTRONGEST STORMS. ONE OR TWO WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 16Z.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL CLEARINGIN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWD THROUGHERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S/NEAR 80AND DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER ME TO THE UPPER 60SOVER SERN NY. LATEST RAP-BASED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ONLY AMODEST AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL HEATING IS REQUIRED FOR TSTM INITIATIONIN THE VCTY OF THE SFC TROUGH. IN FACT...THE LATEST VIS IMAGERYDEPICTS AN INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MD AREA.EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURSIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40 TO 50 KTS OF SWLY EFFECTIVEBULK SHEAR AND MODERATE MLCAPE /AVERAGING 1000 TO 1500J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER/. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WPROVIDING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BOTH SUPERCELLS ANDBOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASTHE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THEMOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS.CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ONE OR TWO WW ISSUANCES WILLLIKELY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 16Z...BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/28/2015ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Hmm, boundary visible on radar just about lined up with the foothills in ME. SREF has a 5% contour for sig. tornado ingredients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Its could be an interesting afternoon later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Yeah what is up with that? I feel when I lived in Natick I saw hail every couple years. Granted this will be only my 3rd summer in this area. A greater quantity of storms out this way though. And I'm just curious as to the point of this thread? It's annoying switching between 3 threads when there are so few posts a day..... One for models, one for off topic, one for thunderstorms. Lot easier to go back and find events when things aren't mega-threaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Its could be an interesting afternoon later I like your location SW to Foothills, SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I like your location SW to Foothills, SE NH. It could get interesting later, I would like to be over by the lakes and IZG though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Happy happy birthday Jeffafa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Anyone that's been looking closely at this today.. Idea on time any renegade storm would be in and also past BDL area? Would they be out of there by 5:30-6:00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 SPC MCD #0820 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0820.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1030 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...PORTIONS OF VT...MA...CT...SERN NYCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 281530Z - 281630ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AHEADOF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THEAFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESTRONGEST STORMS. ONE OR TWO WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 16Z.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL CLEARINGIN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWD THROUGHERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S/NEAR 80AND DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER ME TO THE UPPER 60SOVER SERN NY. LATEST RAP-BASED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ONLY AMODEST AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL HEATING IS REQUIRED FOR TSTM INITIATIONIN THE VCTY OF THE SFC TROUGH. IN FACT...THE LATEST VIS IMAGERYDEPICTS AN INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MD AREA.EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURSIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40 TO 50 KTS OF SWLY EFFECTIVEBULK SHEAR AND MODERATE MLCAPE /AVERAGING 1000 TO 1500J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER/. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WPROVIDING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BOTH SUPERCELLS ANDBOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASTHE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THEMOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS.CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ONE OR TWO WW ISSUANCES WILLLIKELY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 16Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Anyone that's been looking closely at this today.. Idea on time any renegade storm would be in and also past BDL area? Would they be out of there by 5:30-6:00? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Feels like a big damage day to me. Hope you've got some extra doors and hinges ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 watch up SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 233NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1150 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSMAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-282300-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0233.150528T1550Z-150528T2300Z/MA. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLINHAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEXNORFOLK SUFFOLK WORCESTER$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Yeslike a 3:00 banger if they got one? Some of the earlier stuff I saw had stuff behind the main show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Happy happy birthday Jeffafa Thanks Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Watches are up SEL3 0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS MAINE NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTHERN VERMONT COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL 700 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT AS STORMS ORGANIZE/MATURE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOULTON MAINE TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...GOSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 EDIT: Bday boy beat me to it, happy bday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Hmm, boundary visible on radar just about lined up with the foothills in ME. SREF has a 5% contour for sig. tornado ingredients. We have a better shot today then yesterday that's for certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Great lightning strike caught in Grande Isle, Maine, yesterday. http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c82_1432820709 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 EDIT: Bday boy beat me to it, happy bday Thanks Jay, A severe cell makes a great gift.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Hmm, boundary visible on radar just about lined up with the foothills in ME. SREF has a 5% contour for sig. tornado ingredients. are we going to get anything this afternoon? Mtns seem to be generating some instability. Arg! Long range looks dry. This is getting a little ugly is it not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.