Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

If that were to happen and it were to be all snow... we could be talking about ft and ft of snow

Yeah. That's if the phasing happens at the right location and the Northern Stream needs to be just as strong or there will be an early phase, late phase or no phase at all.

[easternsnowman]

It will be a great storm for interior sections, I remember 97-98 winter and the big snowstorms were in the interior. If the timing is good and there is blocking maybe the cities will cash in, odds are however those 50 miles north an west of the cities will do much better.

[donsutherland1]

The SOI went negative on July 9 and has now been negative for 35 consecutive days. Interestingly enough, in 1997, the SOI went negative on July 14 and remained negative through September 23, a stretch of 72 consecutive days.

[snowman19]

The SOI went negative on July 9 and has now been negative for 35 consecutive days. Interestingly enough, in 1997, the SOI went negative on July 14 and remained negative through September 23, a stretch of 72 consecutive days.

Don the warming going on right now in region 3.4 is just staggering. Looks like we are going to surpass where we were in 1997 come September. There is a 30C isotherm showing up at depth in that region now and the warm pool continues pressing east with the non stop wwbs and kelvins

[PB GFI]

Don the warming going on right now in region 3.4 is just staggering. Looks like we are going to surpass where we were in 1997 come September. There is a 30C isotherm showing up at depth in that region now and the warm pool continues pressing east with the non stop wwbs and kelvins

 

 

Plus 28- 30 C water is  stretching  around the globe .   WOW . 

[roardog]

It's too bad this thread isn't on the main page. There's a lot of great information In this thread. I've learned a lot from reading it, including the reason why snowman19 is five posted. lol

[snowman19]

NOAA is on the verge of barking Super El Niño, they think tri-monthly departures may exceed +2.0C in region 3.4 in their new update today: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[ClicheVortex2014]

NOAA is on the verge of barking Super El Niño, they think tri-monthly departures may exceed +2.0C in region 3.4 in heir new update today: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Sometimes I don't understand why they don't just go with a 100% chance of something happening. Like, 90% chance of Nino lasting through the winter? Or how about the tornado watch for Alabama on 4/27/11 (95% chance for issuance)... is there really a chance of it not happening?

[PB GFI]

Not  a terrible look 

 

[snowman19]

New NOAA blog on the developing El Niño if anyone wants to read: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-supercalifragilisticexpealidocious

[ClicheVortex2014]

Who's ready for the media circus?

 

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html

[snowman19]

Who's ready for the media circus?

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html

Deja vu 1997-1998

[PB GFI]

LA NINA next summer/winter - so enjoy it. 

[easternsnowman]

Living in the big cities and nearby is going to be loads of fun in the winter!

[ClicheVortex2014]

New NOAA blog on the developing El Niño if anyone wants to read: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-supercalifragilisticexpealidocious

Interesting they have the peak at late-Fall/early-winter... which means they think JAMSTEC peaks too early

[SnoSki14]

Living in the big cities and nearby is going to be loads of fun in the winter!

If you want to see a bunch of strong storms then absolutely.

[tdp146]

Who's ready for the media circus?

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html

Oh yeah. Cats out of the bag. Have been getting texts today about it from non-weather friends. I'm excited. Any extreme weather event is exciting. Even if we don't really know yet how it will translate to sensible weather.

[Yanksfan]

Living in the big cities and nearby is going to be loads of fun in the winter!

Let's hope the -EPO holds its ground. For if it does it would be game on for us not only for the snow potentials, but it would be fascinating to see the magnitude of the storms with an active northern jet and strong southern jet coexisting.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Oh yeah. Cats out of the bag. Have been getting texts today about it from non-weather friends. I'm excited. Any extreme weather event is exciting. Even if we don't really know yet how it will translate to sensible weather.

Yeah CNN, MSNBC, TWC all reported on it today. Can't wait to see all the misconceptions/pseudo-meteorological claims and terms/parodies/satire related to it. 

[Rjay]

It's too bad this thread isn't on the main page. There's a lot of great information In this thread. I've learned a lot from reading it, including the reason why snowman19 is five posted. lol

Lol

[dmillz25]

It would be great if the CA winter forecast works out as well at the summer forecast

issued back in April.

cahgt_anom.1.gif

500.gif

cahgt_anom.4.gif

Forgive if im looking at this wrong but is that a -NAO?

[Cfa]

I have a hard time wrapping my head around Canada (our source of cold air) being well above normal while the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast is below normal. It just sounds odd to me, where would the "colder than normal" air even come from if Canada is on fire (relatively speaking)?

[ClicheVortex2014]

I have a hard time wrapping my head around Canada (our source of cold air) being well above normal while the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast is below normal. It just sounds odd to me, where would the "colder than normal" air even come from if Canada is on fire (relatively speaking)?

Because Canada's "well above average" is still "well below average" for the east US. For example... Winnipeg's average high in January is -0.6F. Add 4 degrees to that, or even 10 degrees, that's still what we would call frigid air.

[Cfa]

Because Canada's "well above average" is still "well below average" for the east US.

I know, it's all relative, but I just thought a warmer (though still ice cold) Canada would mean that the cold air entering the U.S. would be more moderate than usual.

[PB GFI]

I have a hard time wrapping my head around Canada (our source of cold air) being well above normal while the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast is below normal. It just sounds odd to me, where would the "colder than normal" air even come from if Canada is on fire (relatively speaking)?

Don't look at that , those are temp anamolies , look at the 500 mb map

That air in Canada is cold enough . It's NYC cold. It may be not be below normal cold in central Canada but when you see ridges on the west coast the " cold enough " air has to get funneled SE.

So it heads through the lakes .

So relative to averages at 500 it's showing you the direction of the cold airs flow .

So what 2 below in the SE isn't all that cold here. But what's 1 SD above in Manitoba is cold enough here.

So the departures from normal  are colder relative to averages the further S you go , but that's a positive. You don't need frigid to snow.

All that blocking means you will not see many storms to the lakes.

They are forced to the east coast.

Too much blocking and you shift the wetter anamolies south as well.

So that blocky look at 500 is a what you want to see.

[Cfa]

Don't look at that , those are temp anamolies , look at the 500 mb map

That air in Canada is cold enough . It's NYC cold. It may be not be below normal cold in central Canada but when you see ridges on the west coast the " cold enough " air has to get funneled SE.

So it heads through the lakes .

So relative to averages at 500 it's showing you the direction of the cold airs flow .

So what 2 below in the SE isn't all that cold here. But what's 1 to 2 above in Manitoba is cold enough here.

So the departures from normal are colder relative to averages the further S you go , but that's a positive. You don't need frigid to snow.

All that blocking means you will not see many storms to the lakes.

They are forced to the east coast.

Too much blocking and you shift the wetter anamolies south as well.

So that blocky look at 500 is a what you want to see.

Thanks for the explanation, the maps I've seen were throwing me off a bit, but it makes more sense to me now. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out in the end.

[easternsnowman]

If you want to see a bunch of strong storms then absolutely.

The question is will they be snow.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Here's info about all 10 of the strongest Ninos; SST anomalies, 300mb meridional winds and 1000mb temp anomalies. 

 

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015/08/a-deeper-look-at-top-10-el-ninos-since.html

[donsutherland1]

Here's info about all 10 of the strongest Ninos; SST anomalies, 300mb meridional winds and 1000mb temp anomalies. 

 

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015/08/a-deeper-look-at-top-10-el-ninos-since.html

If the blog is inferring that 1997-98 was only the 4th strongest El Niño event of the 19th and 20th centuries, that is wrong. The tri-monthly ONI for 1997-98 is highest, 1982-83 is 2nd highest, and 1877-78 is 3rd highest. Using the MEI, which really assesses ENSO impact, not direct ENSO strength, 1982-83 ranks 1st, 1997-98 2nd, and 1877-78 3rd.

 

Also, one other error in the blog: ERSST v.4 goes back to 1854, not 1850 (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v4.html)

[Rittenhouse]

The question is will they be snow.

 

The real question is where these storms track. Do storms track up the Appalachians this winter, bringing heavy snow to the interior and rain for the East Coast? Do they track up the coast, bringing snow to the Northeast? Or, do they track further south and east, bringing snow to the South? There's plenty of wiggle room between these scenarios too. Last winter, NYC barely missed out on the big snows. Climatology favors the first scenario. 

 

Teleconnections and computer models can give us a rough idea a week or so out. But ultimately, we will know little until a few days before a storm hits. As last year's January blizzard demonstrated, a storm's track is not definitively known even within hours of the storm's onset. I think what is known now is that there will likely be opportunities for storm development this winter.