easternsnowman Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 A super nino basically means in general, that if you like snow and cold you better move to the Catskills or Poconos.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 9, 2015 Author Share Posted August 9, 2015 Reaching +2.0c or greater in the weeklies doesn't necessarily implicate that we're going to see a super Nino. In order to reach +2.0c for a trimonthly period, we need to have sustained very warm anomalies. We'll likely reach or surpass +2.0c in the weeklies, but the real question is: will that sustain itself?Yea it's pretty much a done deal for going above +2.0C on the weeklies. Do you sustain it at that level for a tri-monthly period? Obviously can't say for sure but the models are saying yes as of right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Reaching +2.0c or greater in the weeklies doesn't necessarily implicate that we're going to see a super Nino. In order to reach +2.0c for a trimonthly period, we need to have sustained very warm anomalies. We'll likely reach or surpass +2.0c in the weeklies, but the real question is: will that sustain itself? A key point. We'll have to wait to see about its sustaining itself at or above +2.0°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 At +2.6°C, the Region 1+2 anomalies are much above the guidance at this point in time. That region's large degree of unpredictability still means it can cool as the ENSO event evolves, but one can't rule out a much warmer than modeled outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Over the past month, we notice a couple changes SSTA wise: [1] The GOA warm pool has expanded northwestward. [2] The orientation of warmth in the ENSO regions has changed. A very east based Nino one month ago has already transitioned into a more basin-wide Nino event, as positive anomalies have shifted westward. Region 1+2 remains the most warm region relative to normal; however, I expect that will not be the case one month from now. [3] In the Atlantic, the tropical regions have warmed, which may allow for stronger cyclones if the pattern becomes favorable periodically in the next 1-2 months. The central Atlantic cold pool remains very strong. The NATL continues to run quite warm. July 2nd: Now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 At +2.6°C, the Region 1+2 anomalies are much above the guidance at this point in time. That region's large degree of unpredictability still means it can cool as the ENSO event evolves, but one can't rule out a much warmer than modeled outcome. Per the latest ENSO update, Nino 1+2 is at +2.6... which is only 0.1C cooler than last week. It goes... Nino 1+2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 Over the past month, we notice a couple changes SSTA wise: [1] The GOA warm pool has expanded northwestward. [2] The orientation of warmth in the ENSO regions has changed. A very east based Nino one month ago has already transitioned into a more basin-wide Nino event, as positive anomalies have shifted westward. Region 1+2 remains the most warm region relative to normal; however, I expect that will not be the case one month from now. July 2nd: Now: The SSTAs in the north Pacific usually look really sketchy on that site... not sure how reliable it actually is. The whole orientation of the SSTAs looks unrealistic to me. Here's tropicaltidbit's Also... earth.nullschool has a neat SSTA map. July 2/00z: http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/07/02/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=180.88,27.02,397 August 9/00z: http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/08/09/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=180.88,27.02,397 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Pretty safe to say now we will be at or above +2.0C by the end of this month with the warming in region 3.4 still ongoing. The current +1.9C is the warmest August reading in 3.4 since 1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 With respect to ENSO Region 1+2, here's what would happen based on the 6 cases in which the Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C or above in July during a developing or ongoing El Niño event. 1982 isn't included, as July had a +0.87°C anomaly. If the 1982-83 event were included, that event would have seen a spike in Region 1+2 anomalies over the August-December period. Dissipating El Niño cases e.g., 1983 and 1998 were not included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 The warm pool pushing east into region 3.4 is just amazing, it has a 30C isotherm with it! Let's see if it can hold together, if it does, just wow, that didn't even happen in 1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 The warm pool pushing east into region 3.4 is just amazing, it has a 30C isotherm with it! Let's see if it can hold together, if it does, just wow, that didn't even happen in 1997 As long as regions 1 and 2 have peaked and cool off in time which the models depict, it only makes it more enticing with these potential extreme warm anomalies in regions 3 and 3.4 come winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 The warm pool pushing east into region 3.4 is just amazing, it has a 30C isotherm with it! Let's see if it can hold together, if it does, just wow, that didn't even happen in 1997 Are you still sold on this being a east based Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Are you still sold on this being a east based Nino?I said basin wide Nino which it is. I was never and will never be sold on it becoming a modoki like some were suggesting a couple of months ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 I said basin wide Nino which it is. I was never and will never be sold on it becoming a modoki like some were suggesting a couple of months ago Yep, east based El Niño is out of the question now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Yep, east based El Niño is out of the question now. Thank goodness for that. Otherwise we would of been screwed for sure this winter. With a basin wide event it could go either way. Hope that EPO stays negative, and some atlantic blocking will help our cause too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Thank goodness for that. Otherwise we would of been screwed for sure this winter. With a basin wide event it could go either way. Hope that EPO stays negative, and some atlantic blocking will help our cause too.We will not see a standard modiki as you would need the water off SA to b colder than normal. That's not the case here. However the 3.4 region will be warmer than the 1.2 region but stays slightly above normal even as it deciling sharply by the time we get to Dec For our purposes this goes basin wide first then the warmest water spreads west into the 3.4 region as per most of the guidance . It should prevent this from the event from looking like 97 98 . We just don't know where the EPO will b come N D and that is a wild card here. The wet dream is having a super El Nino and it's strong STJ accompanied with turning the jet off asia funneling cold air through Canada and then down through the lakes. I don't know if we will know for a while. The forecast is for D thru M making a call in August would be foolish but there is a lot variance with upside here. I wouldn't kill this winter here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 We will not see a standard modiki as you would need the water off SA to b colder than normal. That's not the case here. However the 3.4 region will be warmer than the 1.2 region but stays slightly above normal even as it deciling sharply by the time we get to Dec For our purposes this goes basin wide first then the warmest water spreads west into the 3.4 region as per most of the guidance . It should prevent this from the event from looking like 97 98 . We just don't know where the EPO will b come N D and that is a wild card here. The wet dream is having a super El Nino and it's strong STJ accompanied with turning the jet off asia funneling cold air through Canada and then down through the lakes. I don't know if we will know for a while. The forecast is for D thru M making a call in August would be foolish but there is a lot variance with upside here. I wouldn't kill this winter here I'd imagine Nino 4's behavior is going to be just as important as Nino 1+2. If CFS is right and the Nino gets pushed east throughout winter (thus, cooling Nino 4 first), that could be trouble. Even then, it still doesn't look like an east-based Nino... but cooling from the west wouldn't help. If last month's JAMSTEC is right, which cools the Nino from the east, then game on for winter lovers. JAMSTEC's August update should be out in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I'd imagine Nino 4's behavior is going to be just as important as Nino 1+2. If CFS is right and the Nino gets pushed east throughout winter (thus, cooling Nino 4 first), that could be trouble. Even then, it still doesn't look like an east-based Nino... but cooling from the west wouldn't help. If last month's JAMSTEC is right, which cools the Nino from the east, then game on for winter lovers. JAMSTEC's August update should be out in a few days. I was just on looking for the new update . I think it will be out Thrs . I saw the Euro seasonal D-F . The J-M is not in yet ( or at least I have not seen it ) . The Euro evolves the SST similar to the July JAMSTEC . It continues to warm the 3.4 region and cool the 1.2 region . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I was just on looking for the new update . I think it will be out Thrs . I saw the Euro seasonal D-F . The J-M is not in yet ( or at least I have not seen it ) . The Euro evolves the SST similar to the July JAMSTEC . It continues to warm the 3.4 region and cool the 1.2 region . Still waiting for Nino 4 and 1+2 to dramatically warm/cool respectively... We're well on our way to being amongst the strongest Ninos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Still waiting for Nino 4 and 1+2 to dramatically warm/cool respectively... We're well on our way to being amongst the strongest Ninos Yes , but it is one variable . Check out all that WARM water in the upper region towards the EP . You did not have that in 82 or 97 . So as this event unfolds into a super event , look what`s around it when looking at the implications in the LR . Having a boiling basin wide event alone does not kill the winter if other variables are favorable . I am willing to wait and see what the EPO region looks like come N -D as well as the NA . A STJ looks to be a given . But if you combine that with high latitude blocking then you don`t slam the door on this winter . Many variables are on the table , if that 1.2 " does finally cool " then that may leave the water in the EPO region warm enough to help build that ridge . Even if it is displaced east as per the JAMSTEC then you likely see a pos PNA and we will take that too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Yes , but it is one variable . Check out all that WARM water in the upper region towards the EPO . You did not have that in 82 or 97 . So as this event unfolds into a super event , look what`s around it when looking at the implications in the LR . Having a boiling basin wide event alone does not kill the winter if other variables are favorable . I am willing to wait and see what the EPO region looks like come N -D as well as the NA . A STJ looks to be a given . But if you combine that with high latitude blocking then you don`t slam the door on this winter . Many variables are on the table , if that 1.2 " does finally cool " then that may leave the water in the EPO region warm enough to help build that ridge . Even if it is displaced east as per the JAMSTEC then you likely see a pos PNA and we will take that too . The GOA warm pool might not even be there in 4 months. That's a loooooong time for the currents to set up and advect cool water east, which could be quite rapid as we saw in mid-late July, and we're already seeing a -PDO signature in the west Pacific. Also, if the Aleutian low does set up in the GOA in December, it could help cool the water in the region. However... I really doubt the PDO is going to flip by the time winter is over... but all I'm saying is that it's certainly possible that the warm pool could be gone and the PDO could be cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 The GOA warm pool might not even be there in 4 months. That's a loooooong time for the currents to set up and advect cool water east, which could be quite rapid as we saw in mid-late July, and we're already seeing a -PDO signature in the west Pacific. Also, if the Aleutian low does set up in the GOA in December, it could help cool the water in the region. However... I really doubt the PDO is going to flip by the time winter is over... but all I'm saying is that it's certainly possible that the warm pool could be gone and the PDO could be cooling. Both the ( july update ) JAMSTEC and Euro seasonal displace the warmer anomalies further east , never erasing them . I have no way of knowing what the EPO region will look like come N outside of what the guidance is telling me . If I go off the guidance the 3.4 region should warm , the 1.2 region should cool and some warmer water remains just east of the EPO region . So I am inclined to buy a strong STJ this far out and leave open the possibility that - EPO/+PNA is some form is possible as we get past the 1st half of winter. I like back loaded pos enso winters , the models at 500 look better in Jan - Feb - Mar , than they do in Dec . Long ways off , but there are some hints that all is not lost . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 El Nino or near el nino winters snowfall...snowy/near average/below average...the snowier the winter the lower the ao is on average...last years near el nino had a very positive ao for a four month period...A negative AO is helpfull during most el nino years...it didn't help much in 1997-98 but it wasn't that negative in December and February...1972-73 was positive...1982-83 was near neutral for the four month period...year..........snowfall.......Dec.......Jan.........Feb........Mar....... ave 2014-15.......50.3"......+0.413...+1.092...+1.043...+1.837...+1.092...2009-10.......51.4".......-3.413... -2.587... -4.226... -0.432... -2.6642004-05.......41.0"......+1.230...+0.356... -1.271... -1.348... -0.2582003-04.......42.6"......+0.265... -1.686... -1.528...+0.318... -0.6582002-03.......49.3".......-1.592... -0.472...+0.128...+0.933... -0.2511993-94.......53.4".......-0.104... -0.288... -0.862...+1.881...+0.1571977-78.......50.7".......-0.240... -0.347... -3.014...+0.502... -0.8001968-69.......30.2".......-0.783... -2.967... -3.114... -1.582... -2.1121963-64.......44.7".......-1.178...+0.385... -0.575... -0.558... -0.4821957-58.......44.7"......+0.828... -1.438... -2.228... -2.522... -1.340 ..ten year average...-0.732middle years................................................................................1951-52.......19.7"......+1.987...+0.368... -1.747... -1.859... -0.3131965-66.......21.4"......+0.163... -3.232... -1.438... -0.911... -1.3571969-70.......25.6".......-1.856... -2.412... -1.325... -2.084... -1.9191976-77.......24.5".......-2.074... -3.767... -2.010...+0.344... -1.8771982-83.......27.2"......+0.967...+1.359... -1.806... -0.567... -0.0121986-87.......23.1"......+0.060... -1.148... -1.473... -1.746... -1.0771987-88.......19.1".......-0.534...+0.265... -1.066... -0.197... -0.3831990-91.......24.9"......+1.277...+0.723... -0.876... -0.527...+0.1491992-93.......24.5"......+1.627...+3.495...+0.184...+0.764...+1.518...nine year average...-0.586least snowy.......................................................................................1952-53.......15.1".......-1.827... -1.036... -0.249...+1.068... -0.5111953-54.......15.8"......+0.575... -0.148... -0.181...+0.246...+0.1811958-59.......13.0"...... -1.687... -2.013...+2.544...+1.442...+0.0721972-73.........2.8"......+1.238...+1.232...+0.786...+0.537...+0.9481979-80.......12.8"......+1.295... -2.066... -0.934... -1.433... -0.7871991-92.......12.6"......+1.613...+0.550...+1.222...+0.984...+1.0671994-95.......11.8"......+0.894... -0.154...+1.429...+0.393...+0.6411997-98.........5.5".......-0.071... -2.081... -0.183... -0.254... -0.6472006-07.......12.4"......+2.282...+2.034... -1.307...+1.182...+1.048...nine year average...+0.212 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Both the ( july update ) JAMSTEC and Euro seasonal displace the warmer anomalies further east , never erasing them . I have no way of knowing what the EPO region will look like come N outside of what the guidance is telling me . If I go off the guidance the 3.4 region should warm , the 1.2 region should cool and some warmer water remains just east of the EPO region . So I am inclined to buy a strong STJ this far out and leave open the possibility that - EPO/+PNA is some form is possible as we get past the 1st half of winter. I like back loaded pos enso winters , the models at 500 look better in Jan - Feb - Mar , than they do in Dec . Long ways off , but there are some hints that all is not lost . Notice I said the warm pool... as in the one that's been blamed for the RRR. I never said it'll be erased... but I said it could cool. If you look through the seasons on JAMSTEC, you can see what's left of the warm pool in SEP-NOV... then through DJF, the cool water keeps pushing the warm water east. The PDO remains strong, but extreme warm pool (what we saw in 2013-14, 2014-15, and currently) is gone. The only difference between this solution and CFS is that CFS is more aggressive with this happening. Besides the guidance, I've done a bit of research and looked back at the end of previous/recent +PDO regimes... 1997 and 2004. There was a -PDO signal in the west Pacific that formed about a year before the actual PDO started weakening in both cases. Small sample size in the research, and for that reason I don't have high confidence in the result... but we've had the -PDO signal in the west Pacific since April, so that's another indication that the PDO could be about to weaken and flip. If anyone else has the resources to look at other +PDO regimes and could help add on to this research, I'd appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 The NMME looks a like the Euro seasonal . It`s SSTs are similar to the JAMSTEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 The important part is this: Bottom line we are going into a Super El Niño and the question is this, where does the main Nino forcing cell setup? Right now it is set up in the eastern subtropical Pacific. The location of this cell is almost identical to 1997-1998. Can this change in the fall/winter? Sure, absolutely. You look at the main divergence aloft to see where the main forcing is, divergence aloft = convergence and convection/thunderstorms at the surface, big latent heat release aloft, which sets up the long wave synoptic features (Aleutian Low position, EPO, etc.) latent heat release is also what powers the subtropical jet stream and in strong and super Ninos, really "juices" it and acts to weaken the northern polar jet which is powered off temp differences. We need to watch this forcing very closely come fall to see where we are headed for this upcoming winter's pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 This has the possibility to - at the very least - be a very "fascinating" winter in the sense that we don't often experience something like this. The sample size since 1950 is quite small. If this +ENSO peaks at or above +1.7c over a trimonthly period, which I believe it will, the possible analogs are a rather short list. If the Nino becomes a very strong basin wide event with greatest warmth west of 1+2, that will lessen the relevance of years like 1972, 1982, and 1997, leaving us only a couple potential analog years. Include the uncertainty regarding the modality / magnitude of other northern hemispheric indices, and you've got yourself a very interesting winter forecast. Very few years are "broad-brush", but I think this year's winter forecast will be more difficult than many expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 New August NMME is on the same page. NMME_ensemble_z200_season5.png NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png We need to watch where the actual Nino tropical convective forcing and upper level diffluence sets up this fall. Right now we have strong east based forcing, like I said it can change between now and the fall for sure but that is what is important, looking at where the actual forcing sets up not just ssts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 We need to watch where the actual Nino tropical convective forcing and upper level diffluence sets up this fall. Right now we have strong east based forcing, like I said it can change between now and the fall for sure but that is what is important, looking at where the actual forcing sets up not just ssts. Agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 This has the possibility to - at the very least - be a very "fascinating" winter in the sense that we don't often experience something like this. The sample size since 1950 is quite small. If this +ENSO peaks at or above +1.7c over a trimonthly period, which I believe it will, the possible analogs are a rather short list. If the Nino becomes a very strong basin wide event with greatest warmth west of 1+2, that will lessen the relevance of years like 1972, 1982, and 1997, leaving us only a couple potential analog years. Include the uncertainty regarding the modality / magnitude of other northern hemispheric indices, and you've got yourself a very interesting winter forecast. Very few years are "broad-brush", but I think this year's winter forecast will be more difficult than many expect.I totally agree. I can't wait to get in the cool season and watch the Nino come to life with the STJ and Aleutian low - or wherever it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Wow what a Harmonious board here this morning , a very RARE feat here . After seeing last years + AO winter performance around here , I have come to appreciate how just one piece in the GRAND puzzle can undermine analogs and forecasts . The same rule may apply here .The sample size is small ,but keep in mind the entire evolution will likely hinge on a piece that may not be seen until late fall or early winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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