Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,801
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Virtual Bible Study
    Newest Member
    Virtual Bible Study
    Joined

Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19
 Share

Recommended Posts

Actually your 1st post would hold true even for our area.

Tom made a good point away , we will def need to see a NEG AO this time around in combination with a NEG EPO to set up a better back end winter.

Last year was an anomaly POS AO regimes usually correlate to above normal temps for our area . With the 3.4 region above the 1.5 threshold early on we will be hard pressed to find winter here for the first half.

However if we slope off fast enough and the 3.4 region dips below 1.5 as the dynamical models show and are warmer than the eastern region then a back loaded winter is possible.

Lotta "ifs" there .

A NEG EPO alone will not spell a long winter in fact early on Brian is going to yell bust everyday , even as no one is calling for a wire to wire cold winter.

Hurricane season is upon us , all eyes there I guess. .

Don't have time to look it up at the moment, but I believe '97-'98 was a -EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, +PDO winter, the problem was the super east-based Nino we had in place, the STJ was just totally overwhelming. Had it not been for the crazy strong Nino, that probably would have been a decent winter
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Don't have time to look it up at the moment, but I believe '97-'98 was a -EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, +PDO winter, the problem was the super east-based Nino we had in place, the STJ was just totally overwhelming. Had it not been for the crazy strong Nino, that probably would have been a decent winter

It wasn't a -EPO winter...there was a huge vortex in the Gulf of Alaska that flooded North America with warmth. That was the main problem. The -AO/-NAO was very weak, more like neutral, and poorly placed.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per the 0Z Euro, volatility is ahead: SOI should drop back to near low -30's 7/2-3 before rapidly rising to the general vicinity of +20 by 7/6-7. Then it is predicted to fall back some but still be around +10 or maybe +teens 7/10-11.

Based on this, 7/1-11 may end up averaging not far from 0...perhaps near -1.

Per the 0Z Euro, a wild SOI ride ahead. Get ready for a very steep SOI rise over the next ~4 days to perhaps close to +20 from the current ~-35 before a fall back to ~-20's to near -30 by 7/14.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, this year has been running behind 1997. However, it does have an opportunity to make up some significant ground over the next few weeks. 1997 went quiet in late June through most of July as easterlies resumed. Subsurface anomalies weakened significantly over that period. There's currently a strong WWB ongoing, so my guess would be that the two years will be a lot closer by the end of the month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't have time to look it up at the moment, but I believe '97-'98 was a -EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, +PDO winter, the problem was the super east-based Nino we had in place, the STJ was just totally overwhelming. Had it not been for the crazy strong Nino, that probably would have been a decent winter

The El Niño may have had something to do with the AO and NAO averaging negative though as El Niños often favor more blocking than La Nina's do, so without the niño those indices may not have been as favorable. 09-10 was really not a whole lot different than 97-98, we were literally within 2-3C of being rain in the mid levels on most snow events. The insane -AO made the difference or that winter is likely a clunker, much like 97-98 many perfect storm tracks but most would have been rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2009-10 had about 35" of wet snow and 15" of powder...1963-64 was an el nino winter with mostly wet snows and a blizzard thrown in for good measure...every thing went wrong in 1972-73 and 1997-98 had no cold air at all to work with...82-83 had the one great week in February...chances are next winter is milder than the last two if the el nino is very strong...If it remains strong into next spring the second half of the winter could be interesting...If the nino fades fast during the fall and winter I like a mild ending after a cold start...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The El Niño may have had something to do with the AO and NAO averaging negative though as El Niños often favor more blocking than La Nina's do, so without the niño those indices may not have been as favorable. 09-10 was really not a whole lot different than 97-98, we were literally within 2-3C of being rain in the mid levels on most snow events. The insane -AO made the difference or that winter is likely a clunker, much like 97-98 many perfect storm tracks but most would have been rain.

Well i hope we get the blocking like we got in 09-10.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The El Niño may have had something to do with the AO and NAO averaging negative though as El Niños often favor more blocking than La Nina's do, so without the niño those indices may not have been as favorable. 09-10 was really not a whole lot different than 97-98, we were literally within 2-3C of being rain in the mid levels on most snow events. The insane -AO made the difference or that winter is likely a clunker, much like 97-98 many perfect storm tracks but most would have been rain.

Very strong/super east-based ninos are the kiss of death for winter. They just totally overwhelm any blocking
Link to comment
Share on other sites

with a strong el nino we'll need a negative arctic oscillation at times...the last two years were snowy despite not having a very negative ao at any point...

season.......low ao # and date

1979-80......-3.705.....1/24/80.......
1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81.........
1981-82......-3.804.....12/30/81.....
1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83......
1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......
1984-85......-6.226.....1/19/85......
1985-86......-3.894......2/6/86.......
1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........
1987-88......-2.314.....2/28/88......
1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89.......

.

1989-90......-3.482.....12/10/89......
1990-91......-3.381.....3/9/91.........
1991-92......-2.597.....12/4/91.......
1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.........
1993-94......-3.503.....2/24/94........
1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95..........
1995-96......-4.353.....12/19/95...
1996-97......-3.377.....12/30/96......
1997-98......-4.269.....1/10/98.......
1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99.......

 

1999-00......-2.118.....2/18/00.......
2000-01......-4.854.....2/25/01.........
2001-02......-3.293.....12/28/01......
2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03........
2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......
2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......
2005-06......-3.569.....12/5/05........
2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07..........
2007-08......-2.468.....1/2/08..........
2008-09......-3.178.....2/3/09.........

2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09......
2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10....

2011-12......-3.451.....01/28/12......

2012-13......-5.688.....03/20/13......

2013-14......-2.605.....01/27/14......

2014-15......-1.462.....03/19/15......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First big model test of this El Nino event coming up in July. The current weekly Nino 3.4

temperature from the CPC is +1.4 C. We will get an update of this number tomorrow

which will cover the last week of June.

Weekly verifications on Nino 3.4 throughout the month of July will let us know

which cluster of models is correct in the near term. This July period is where

the two model groups are diverging. The Jamstec represents a faster

temperature rise while the POAMA shows a slower July temperature increase.

So we'll get to see which model or a compromise between the two turns

out to be correct by August 1st.

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2015.gif

poama.nino34.png

Nino 3.4 should bump up to +1.5C tomorrow based on the daily numbers. The new July model runs will be very important. It appears the POAMA is and was too low...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nino 3.4 should bump up to +1.5C tomorrow based on the daily numbers. The new July model runs will be very important. It appears the POAMA is and was too low...

 

Close to 1.5C on the update today holding the last few weeks at +1.4C. Nino 1+2 has also been steady recently

but Nino 3 ticked up a bit.

 

03JUN2015 1.9  1.4 1.2 1.2

10JUN2015  2.6  1.5 1.3 1.1

17JUN2015  2.7 1.8 1.4 1.1

24JUN2015  2.6 1.9 1.4 1.1

01JUL2015   2.7 2.0 1.4 1.0

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The July 1 weekly data showed ENSO Region 3's anomaly reaching +2.0°C. The last time that happened was the 1997-98 super El Niño event. During that event, the Region 3 anomaly first reached +2.0°C on June 25. Both the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events had monthly Region 3 anomalies of +2.0°C or above. It's still a little soon to be sure, but this most recent development may tilt the odds toward a basin-wide El Niño event. We'll have to see if Region 3's warmth is sustained or continues to increase in coming weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SSTA configuration has shifted - over the past 30 days - into a classic strong El Nino / +PDO precursor profile. The NW Pacific has seen significant cooling, as has the area surrounding Australia. The PDO will clearly register more positive when the June value comes in. Will be interesting to see the oscillation of SOI and WWB's over the next several weeks, as that will be telling insofar as our similarity to years like 1982, 1997, and 1972. To date, we've been lagging behind the "super" Nino's (>2.0c region 3.4). However, the SOI has plummeted and the 30-day running value is now under -15. This is indicative of a strong El Nino atmospheric regime. I think the July update of the IRI guidance will undoubtedly correct warmer, specifically the statistical guidance, which I thought was still too low around 1.4-1.5c peak on the June update. I continue to maintain a forecast of around +1.7 to 1.9c for the trimonthly region 3.4 maximum readings. Whether we have a chance to attain > 2.0c numbers or not depends upon the speed at which we progress in the coming weeks, and the frequency / maintenance of strong WWB's.

 

anomnight.7.6.2015.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SSTA configuration has shifted - over the past 30 days - into a classic strong El Nino / +PDO precursor profile. The NW Pacific has seen significant cooling, as has the area surrounding Australia. The PDO will clearly register more positive when the June value comes in. Will be interesting to see the oscillation of SOI and WWB's over the next several weeks, as that will be telling insofar as our similarity to years like 1982, 1997, and 1972. To date, we've been lagging behind the "super" Nino's (>2.0c region 3.4). However, the SOI has plummeted and the 30-day running value is now under -15. This is indicative of a strong El Nino atmospheric regime. I think the July update of the IRI guidance will undoubtedly correct warmer, specifically the statistical guidance, which I thought was still too low around 1.4-1.5c peak on the June update. I continue to maintain a forecast of around +1.7 to 1.9c for the trimonthly region 3.4 maximum readings. Whether we have a chance to attain > 2.0c numbers or not depends upon the speed at which we progress in the coming weeks, and the frequency / maintenance of strong WWB's.

anomnight.7.6.2015.gif

Most important, the classic cold horseshoe has developed around Austrialia and Indonesia and is continuing to strengthen. We are now clearly into a strengthening +IOD. This is only going to support more -SOI and WWBs in the next few months ahead...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really big cave to the stronger guidance in just one run on the new POAMA.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml

poama.nino34.png

OLD.png

No shock. The POAMA started out too low for July to begin with. The POAMA has been terrible so far with this event.This Nino is clearly headed for the history books alongside '72-'73, '82-'83 and '97-'98
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No shock. The POAMA started out too low for July to begin with. The POAMA has been terrible so far with this event.This Nino is clearly headed for the history books alongside '72-'73, '82-'83 and '97-'98

 

 

It's too early to make such a definitive statement. The POAMA is still in a small minority of outlier models with respect to the maximum intensity. The rapid strengthening over the past few weeks doesn't necessarily implicate the maintenance of that pace of intensification going forward, over the next few months. What I'd say we can say with a high degree of certainty: the likelihood of at least a strong El Nino (>1.5c region 3.4) trimonthly peak is fairly high at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...