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snowman19

Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

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I think the NAO saved my area in '66.

the AO hit rock bottom on 1/28/66 at -5.130...the nao was quite low on 1/28 at -1.562...The ao was mostly positive in Dec. 65 and mostly negative in January 66 and all of Feb. 66...March 66 was mostly positive...

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How/why would you not understand a NEG EPO modeled to the level of the European guidance suggests not have an effect on where the heights in Canada get pulled back too .

And what the response downstream HAS to be . If you place a NEG S of the Aleutians you HAVE to bend the jet off the Asian continent up and over the pole .

If the heights are centered on the west shores of HB , where does HP go as it follows the NJET ? The further west the height fiend is the more LIKELY HP will have no where to go but through the lakes towards the SE .

The back side of the ridge is where the jet will follow. The CFS is only seasonal model too far east and has been opined about already.

What gives you one response in the summer gives you the another response in the winter.

I hope you are not making the argument because there was a ridge in the GOA in the summer it has to stay like that come this winter ?

As the seasonal jet ttightens and the colder air off as Asia hits that warm water it develops as deep negative in the very area a ridge is sitting now.

Take a look at what the response of the MJO in what its phases give you JJA and check the same phases again for JFA.

Why do you think that is ? Because the seasonal feedback of the jet gives you a differences responses at different times of the year.

This has been the Genesis of the non winter argument 1st, many east based fans were sure this would focus itself In the 1.2 region. We opined early on that the guidance cleary spread the NINO west , you guys did not buy it then finally it wasn't until 3 and 3.4 boiled and 4 sat at 1c did you guys oh yeh fine its basin wide. We argued that from April the rest of the guys has to admit I'm August it was basin wide. (Basin wide was not the call by many here early on )

It only by a few of us , so some of you need to own that failure.

Then we said watch that warm water in the EPO region it's warm it will not going to get erased then came the posts well upwelling will occur and the water anamolies will be erased . A week away from.OCT and that that position is wrong too as that water is plus 4c. Now the last stand is the forcing may not head back west.

My god , you guys have been wrong about this entire process and you are now ignoring the guidance once again to make the claim that this is a non 97 type winter .

The fact that the water in the EPO region is so warm combined with such a strong ENSO event should really make people focus on both the drivers here along with the vast majority of the guidance.

I am comfortable with my 3rd position here .

Especially after seeing my first 2 turn out correct.

What are you on about? None of this rant is related to what you quoted. I was talking about the irrelevance of the warm pool in the NE Pacific.

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What are you on about? None of this rant is related to what you quoted. I was talking about the irrelevance of the warm pool in the NE Pacific.

I am not sure what you are not seeing. Think the post and subsequent posts are easy to understand.

Maybe over your head. ?

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I am not sure what you are not seeing. Think the post and subsequent posts are easy to understand.

Maybe over your head. ?

Over my head? How ironic. Look at my first post again. 

 

Not sure why you're talking about the SSTs in the NE Pacific. It's irrelevant because the Nino forcing is going to override whatever effect the SSTs have had. We're already seeing a persistent, large trough over NW Canada/part of the GOA as a product of Tropical forcing. When it retrogrades, it's not gonna be because the SSTs in the NE Pacific suddenly "started working", if they're even still there by that time.

 

Tell me... where in your response do you address this? I'm amazed by how you don't get it. I mean, your first sentence in the 'response' is this: 

 

How/why would you not understand a NEG EPO modeled to the level of the European guidance suggests not have an effect on where the heights in Canada get pulled back too .

 

 

I don't even know what you're saying. But I do know it has nothing to do with my original point.

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Posts are gonna start disappearing. This is a great thread, dont destroy it. No one is coming here to read bickering.

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Over my head? How ironic. Look at my first post again. 

 

 

Tell me... where in your response do you address this? I'm amazed by how you don't get it. I mean, your first sentence in the 'response' is this: 

 

 

I don't even know what you're saying. But I do know it has nothing to do with my original point.

The original post was a response to another who compared 97 to 15. I am not sure if the visually impaired is missing the differences

In the PAC.

The forcing moves west. You see it in the guidance and you can see why you forced in the east in 97 just by the nature of how warm the 1.2 region was east of 100.

You are warmer from 110 to 150 and R4 is near record territory.

Now please tell me you understand the significance of the euro seasonal verifying with that kind of neg S of the Aleutians

And the height field pulled west of HB with a roaring STJ.

Please tell me that combo doesn't yield a 09/10 look in the MA and not 97/98 if blocking shows up

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Tell me about it. Further west or southwest is best when it comes to the position on the Aleutian Low.

Hopefully, the other guidance wins out on this one. Even the solid -AO during January 1998

was no match for the Aleutian Low which was too strong and far east.

 

attachicon.gifJAN98.png

well its not just the Aleutian low position that skewed that top map, look at the huge difference in Greenland

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The original post was a response to another who compared 97 to 15. I am not sure if the visually impaired is missing the differences

In the PAC.

The forcing moves west. You see it in the guidance and you can see why you forced in the east in 97 just by the nature of how warm the 1.2 region was east of 100.

You are warmer from 110 to 150 and R4 is near record territory.

Now please tell me you understand the significance of the euro seasonal verifying with that kind of neg S of the Aleutians

And the height field pulled west of HB with a roaring STJ.

Please tell me that combo doesn't yield a 09/10 look in the MA and not 97/98 if blocking shows up

Well so far the models crashed and burned on September's forecast. They didn't even come close to getting this pattern correct

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Fine, but you still haven't answered my question. Do you still think the NE Pacific warm pool is relevant for this winter?

Sorry but whenever I try to discuss with him, it turns into this. What I don't understand is why you deleted my first post about the warm pool. I genuinely wanted to know if he still thought it's relevant for this winter. I still haven't gotten an answer.

YES for as long as it's there and then you may get a hand off to the Atlantic and the NAO as you get deeper and that may over.

But I like the look of having that NEG where the euro has it.

It all matters man . It is the basis of my winter ideas

The opposing view is nothing but the NINO matters.

I had no idea the last 20 posts alluding to the plus 4 C water in the EPO region resulting in the belief of a J-M NEG S of the Aleutians POS PNA this winter was confusing. I hope I didn't lose anyone else. ☺

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Agreed.

 

Odds favor all but one model failing miserably for the next several months because September did not go well.

I didn't even realize CFS messed up the upper air pattern until you said this and I looked it up. I think its forecast for September from the 31st is gonna turn out decent... but it had a strong ridge in the GOA. Ouch. At least it got the eastern ridge right.

 

sTeZLjf.gif

dGoCukg.gif

uesnCi5.gif

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In 2009 and 2002, the September mid level paradigm featured the inverse of the classic El Nino orientation w/ a low height anomaly south of AK near the BC coast. 2002 was a fairly close analog in the mid/upper levels to 2015. However, both of those years featured a significant transition for the mean October pattern w/ an Aleutian trough and NEPAC ridge. At this juncture, the first week of October looks La Nina-like, but it's too early to foresee most of October right now. If the pattern progressed as the models indicate, one would expect a gradual retrogression of the PACNW trough into the Aleutians with the resumption of a -EPO/Western Canadian ridge in the means. We'll see. All options are still on the table in my mind.

30u2ukl.png

 

 

2yjq71v.png

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Isotherm, I have a question. If the tropical forcing is more east based right now and if there is a lag in pattern before the forcing shifts west, don't we want to start seeing some semblance of the warmer waters really starting to move west or do we have time still? To me and im no expert, but it looks pretty warm further east

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Isotherm, I think everyone agrees that there will be extensive periods of ugliness right into the new year, so it may be tough to assume the fall pattern means much.

Obviously, I'd rather see the retrograde during the crucial month of October, but I certainly will no cancel winter if it does not.

I will add this, though......I def. would like to see it shift.

 

If we have a very mild December, odds of a dead ratter def. do increase looking back at records.

We can still have big comebacks like 1958, 1966 and 2015, but getting nearly shut out in December during a robust el nino, at least in this area, often portends a dud.

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Isotherm, I have a question. If the tropical forcing is more east based right now and if there is a lag in pattern before the forcing shifts west, don't we want to start seeing some semblance of the warmer waters really starting to move west or do we have time still? To me and im no expert, but it looks pretty warm further east

Check out the updated Sept 20 SST map from Ryan Maue

If true , gone are the the plus 4 and plus 5 C water off the SA coast and there are brighter reds now showing up around 170.

If true I would watch that as that has been the forecast . There's clearly a lag at 500 mb

But the atmosphere does not flip that quick it's possible the atmosphere will catch up to the guidance and I think that's what you are seeing.

The guidance can always be wrong but that basin went right to guidance (x the over warm R4) , but it cooled 1.2 and focused it's warmth in 3 and 3.4 .

The pattern forecast has been for this to retrograde throughout the fall.

Just like the models saw the spread west in the basin and remember the models were about 2 to 3 weeks too fast cooling the 1.2 region. However both have happened.

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Check out the updated Sept 20 SST map from Ryan Maue

If true , gone are the the plus 4 and plus 5 C water off the SA coast and there are brighter reds now showing up around 170.

If true I would watch that as that has been the forecast . There's clearly a lag at 500 mb

But the atmosphere does not flip that quick it's possible the atmosphere will catch up to the guidance and I think that's what you are seeing.

The guidance can always be wrong but that basin went right to guidance (x the over warm R4) , but it cooled 1.2 and focused it's warmth in 3 and 3.4 .

The pattern forecast has been for this to retrograde throughout the fall.

Just like the models saw the spread west in the basin and remember the models were about 2 to 3 weeks too fast cooling the 1.2 region. However both have happened.

By no means am I directing this to you, but why the concern? Most of us on this board thinks that we will have a backloaded winter so we have time. Let the wavelengths shorten and see where we stand come November. Now here's a flip side question no one has brought up- any chance that the anticipated favorable pattern sets up earlier than expected and we end up with a cold/snowy December and beyond?

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By no means am I directing this to you, but why the concern? Most of us on this board thinks that we will have a backloaded winter so we have time. Let the wavelengths shorten and see where we stand come November. Now here's a flip side question no one has brought up- any chance that the anticipated favorable pattern sets up earlier than expected and we end up with a cold/snowy December and beyond?

I agree with point 1 there is ZERO concern and to point 2 really anything is possible as the overwhelming scenario is always possible but not likely.

We will see what this looks like come mid and late Nov , but there is Guidance that disagrees with a warm non winter.

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I didn't even realize CFS messed up the upper air pattern until you said this and I looked it up. I think its forecast for September from the 31st is gonna turn out decent... but it had a strong ridge in the GOA. Ouch. At least it got the eastern ridge right.

sTeZLjf.gif

dGoCukg.gif

uesnCi5.gif

All the models were bad with September they were showing +PNA/-EPO and we have had the exact opposite (RNA/+EPO) and it looks to continue for the foreseeable future

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I think there's a WWB ongoing now... could add complications to the Nino evolution

Surface:

33Th6P4.png

850mb:

dwdg5o5.jpg

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Oh yea, it's about to strengthen big time. Besides that massive WWB, we are entering a very strong positive IOD phase, it's already approaching +1 on the IOD scale and the SOI is poised to hit record low negative numbers soon

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I will add this, though......I def. would like to see it shift.

 

If we have a very mild December, odds of a dead ratter def. do increase looking back at records.

We can still have big comebacks like 1958, 1966 and 2015, but getting nearly shut out in December during a robust el nino, at least in this area, often portends a dud.

 

 

Agree. I would add that having a dud December with respect to snowfall increases the probability of a dud winter even further. Usually the snowier than average winters with a warm December had at least 1-2 moderate or greater events in the month of December. December 1957 was decent snowfall wise (at least in the NY area) even though temperatures finished warm. I think last December was the warmest Dec we've had relative to normal, yet still experienced a snowier than normal winter. 2004 and 1977 started slow, but their Decembers were far from blowtorches. 1965 was a very warm December, and did finished sub normal snowfall wise in this area. It's very rare that a good to great winters follow blowtorch / snowless Decembers.

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Isotherm, I have a question. If the tropical forcing is more east based right now and if there is a lag in pattern before the forcing shifts west, don't we want to start seeing some semblance of the warmer waters really starting to move west or do we have time still? To me and im no expert, but it looks pretty warm further east

 

 

You are correct that the core of warm SST anomalies are still farther east than would be desired for the winter -- the most anomalous water in region 3. However, as PB alluded to, it is a gradual process, and we have already seen the core of the warmth shift from regions 1+2 to region 3 over the past month. Region 3.4 is now quite close / approaching the levels of region 3. The key period in terms of ENSO evolution is the next 4-6 weeks (approximately). Once we reach November, the longitude at which the greatest tropical forcing develops and positive SSTA congregates should become apparent. If no improvement in orientation of forcing or SSTA occurs until December or later, then it would likely be too late (to salvage the first half of winter at least). One would like to see changes occur over the next month to 6 weeks.

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Agree. I would add that having a dud December with respect to snowfall increases the probability of a dud winter even further. Usually the snowier than average winters with a warm December had at least 1-2 moderate or greater events in the month of December. December 1957 was decent snowfall wise (at least in the NY area) even though temperatures finished warm. I think last December was the warmest Dec we've had relative to normal, yet still experienced a snowier than normal winter. 2004 and 1977 started slow, but their Decembers were far from blowtorches. 1965 was a very warm December, and did finished sub normal snowfall wise in this area. It's very rare that a good to great winters follow blowtorch / snowless Decembers.

Agreed but we've seen two warm snowless Decembers result in AVG to AB snowfall in the last 5 years. 2012 and 2014, at least for areas around North of 40. Interestingly enough, both those years also saw accumulating snow in November.

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Nino 1+2 had the largest increase on the week and the other areas heave held nearly steady.

 

26AUG2015 2.0  2.3  2.2 1.1

02SEP2015  2.2  2.4  2.1 1.0

09SEP2015  2.0  2.6  2.3 1.0
16SEP2015  2.6  2.7  2.3 1.1

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Nino 1+2 had the largest increase on the week and the other areas heave held nearly steady.

26AUG2015 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.1

02SEP2015 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.0

09SEP2015 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.0

16SEP2015 2.6 2.7 2.3 1.1

Just eyeballing today's TAO, it looks like region 1+2 is +3.0C

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Just eyeballing today's TAO, it looks like region 1+2 is +3.0C

Looks a lot more east based than previously with 1+2 and 3 having the highest anomalies. Based on what I've read, I assume it's temporary.

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