IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 the euro got much warmer and drier for the weekend It still has about an inch of rain through day 6. That's to be expected since this rain is all convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 the euro got much warmer and drier for the weekend shocker. Models have consistently gotten drier this spring as we move towards a potential rain event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Today's highs TEB: 86 NYC: 86 EWR: 87 LGA: 87 JFK: 87 ISP: 82 New Brunswick: 86 TTN: 85 PHL: 88 ACY: 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 definitely not happening in Central Park. 86 possible but nothing more than that. The humidity levels are dropping and the winds will increase by the hour now so I doubt we get anything above 86 maybe Newark may hit 89. Also this weekend I think we will get rain! Half an inch is possible we really need it! Guess you were right. Props Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Guess you were right. Props For the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 For the wrong reasons. Yeah I was just talking about the high. Everything else was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Looks like I had fropa. Winds picked up and now temps have been steadily dropping. Down to 70 after a high of 87 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Sleeping with the windows open. Feels great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 57/46 out there... Feels amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Another dry red flag downslope day on tap for the region. Only a T of rainfall so far this month at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Got down to 55 here. Up to 58 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Even with the cooler temps, we should still crack 70F or be near normal for the date before going above yet again in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Great sleeping weather. I wish I was that cool at night all Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 It feels great out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Clear crisp May day. Pollen swirling around in drifts. LOL. Day 21 without rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Clear crisp May day. Pollen swirling around in drifts. LOL. Day 21 without rain here. The Euro and CMC look similar for hit or miss convection chances over the weekend. We need an old fashioned Great Lakes cutoff for a widespread soaker here. But the persistent ridge isn't making the prospects likely for that to happen soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 58/45 here... Chilly day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 The Euro and CMC look similar for hit or miss convection chances over the weekend. We need an old fashioned Great Lakes cutoff for a widespread soaker here. But the persistent ridge isn't making the prospects likely for that to happen soon. yes, another event where the models back off on widespread rain as we approach...need the rain, but would not mind it mostly missing on a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 yes, another event where the models back off on widespread rain as we approach...need the rain, but would not mind it mostly missing on a weekend. It's pretty hard to get widespread synoptic heavy rainfall this year unless you have some time of organized convection or tropical system. As Bluewave mentioned, it's going to take some blocking in the right place to produce some closed lows over the TN Valley which would give us a direct moisture feed in off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 It's pretty hard to get widespread synoptic heavy rainfall this year unless you have some time of organized convection or tropical system. As Bluewave mentioned, it's going to take some blocking in the right place to produce some closed lows over the TN Valley which would give us a direct moisture feed in off the ocean. Agree...I'd take a cold front with a line of showers at this point...can't even get that as the last 2 came through bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Agree...I'd take a cold front with a line of showers at this point...can't even get that as the last 2 came through bone dry. What's worrisome is that we are leaving the statistically wettest part of the year well below average and now entering the statistically driest part of the year. Maybe the switch flips at some point and we go above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Despite all this dry talk, we're barely in the abnormally dry category on the drought monitor. The fire danger is a concern but we've been pretty good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Its only been dry for 6 weeks...I find the dry talk and the overeagerness to predict a flip to wet sort of humorous. Some of you got too comfortable with deluges and wet springs and summers that you get befuddled at a below normal period whixh could last months not weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Its only been dry for 6 weeks...I find the dry talk and the overeagerness to predict a flip to wet sort of humorous. Some of you got too comfortable with deluges and wet springs and summers that you get befuddled at a below normal period whixh could last months not weeks I think part of the concern comes from the fact that we're about to enter the statistically driest part of the year, so while things aren't that bad now, it could be a much different story come August if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 yes, another event where the models back off on widespread rain as we approach...need the rain, but would not mind it mostly missing on a weekend. Interesting stat from the NWS today. No measurable rain (0.01" or more) at Central Park since April 22, 20 consec.days. Last time at least 20 consec. days of no rain was 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Its only been dry for 6 weeks...I find the dry talk and the overeagerness to predict a flip to wet sort of humorous. Some of you got too comfortable with deluges and wet springs and summers that you get befuddled at a below normal period whixh could last months not weeks It's the fact that drought creates drought. Especially in the high insulation season. If there is little soil miosture it is hard to create convection. Part of the reason the last two fronts went through dry. Add in the fact that it's a negative feedback cycle and there is trouble brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 It's the fact that drought creates drought. Especially in the high insulation season. If there is little soil miosture it is hard to create convection. Part of the reason the last two fronts went through dry. Add in the fact that it's a negative feedback cycle and there is trouble brewing. The GFS is yet again showing a wet, unsettled period next week. We will see if that comes to fruition or not. Verbatim Memorial Day weekend would be sunny and dry with temps in the 50's and 60's for highs with 70's possible on Memorial Day. Not beach weather but not terrible either. First glimpse from the Euro also shows highs near 70 on the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend with dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Interesting stat from the NWS today. No measurable rain (0.01" or more) at Central Park since April 22, 20 consec.days. Last time at least 20 consec. days of no rain was 2001. let's hope we don't have a winter of 01-02 incoming. Folks think this period is boring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 The GFS is yet again showing a wet, unsettled period next week. We will see if that comes to fruition or not. Verbatim Memorial Day weekend would be sunny and dry with temps in the 50's and 60's for highs with 70's possible on Memorial Day. Not beach weather but not terrible either. First glimpse from the Euro also shows highs near 70 on the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend with dry weather. 50s-60s would be great as there will be 200,000 people at my beach for the annual jones beach air show. Would be nice to keep them out and away from the water this year!! I forgot to mention before that allot of what created the dust bowl was soul moisture related. It's a pretty simple negative feedback cycle. What we need is the ridge to fully break down and allow the stj to head up this way and then it woulnt matter how dry the soil is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Glorious day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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