weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 A very potent s/w will be moving through during the afternoon hours accompanied by very cold mid-level temperatures and also a pretty favorable wind field aloft. While surface temperatures may not get out of the 60's and dewpoints will be on the lower side, there will be instability present in the mid-levels thanks to the steep lapse rates (>6.5-7 C/KM) that will be present due to the cold pool. It won't take much surface heating to yield some minor instability towards the surface either. With the s/w moving through during the day timing will be favorable for the development of showers and even thunderstorms. Given a strong wind profile aloft, and very cold mid-level temperatures, a few of these storms could contain hail and strong gusty winds. There is even the possibility of a storm or two producing severe hail (>1") or a damaging wind gust. Forecast soundings yield an inverted-v signature which will 1) work to draw down direr air aloft, mixing out the dews and 2) draw down some of these stronger winds aloft. Soundings also show a degree of turning between the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere making for some elevated helicity values. This will further aid in any hail potential. With lack of stronger instability this will probably mitigate the potential for a very brief tornado, however, a storm could really take off and take on supercell characteristics and it would be this case which would yield best chance for severe hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Nice disco Wizard. We've been all over this threat for days. Prob see mostly pea to marble with scattered nickels. Gfs shows potential for some 50 knotters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 Nice disco Wizard. We've been all over this threat for days. Prob see mostly pea to marble with scattered nickels. Gfs shows potential for some 50 knotters Thanks! I wouldn't have known if I didn't see your posts lol. Also good call on the storms last night...had no clue either until I saw your post about the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Thanks! I wouldn't have known if I didn't see your posts lol. Also good call on the storms last night...had no clue either until I saw your post about the potential. The fun time of year is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 The fun time of year is here only a few more weeks than I can get back to enjoying it again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 nice write-up wiz! any concern if the upper lvl forcing holds off til later in the afternoon / evening after peak insolation? also strong southerly low lvl winds might not be the best look with LI sound around 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 nice write-up wiz! any concern if the upper lvl forcing holds off til later in the afternoon / evening after peak insolation? also strong southerly low lvl winds might not be the best look with LI sound around 40 degrees. Cold pool setups seem to rely more on instability generated in the middle levels as opposed as towards the surface so I don't think loss of daytime heating would really mitigate this much...maybe just pretty much make the percentage of a large hail report even lower. I also don't think the southerly llvl winds would be a big factor here either...pretty much for the same reason described in the first sentence. This is how even the south coast can get big time storms during cold pool setups...sea-breeze doesn't seem to impact this type of convection much b/c the instability is more aloft (above the BL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 nice write-up wiz! any concern if the upper lvl forcing holds off til later in the afternoon / evening after peak insolation? also strong southerly low lvl winds might not be the best look with LI sound around 40 degrees.That would def be a concern if we didn't have steep lapse rates and cold air aloft. But this threat is more about dew depressions and cold core so won't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I could are a few sky lights broken....hell maybe roofs punctured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 Something to watch though is degree of surface heating...if we can get stronger heating than modeled that would also steepen the 0-3 lapse rates which would enhance wind potential as well...and of course yield some stronger sfc instability but not a great deal considering the dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I could are a few sky lights broken....hell maybe roofs punctured.bitter tone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Sensitive. I do think they'll be decent storms in ern NY and Berks....just concerned it goes NNE into VT and NH. Hopefully Wiz is knocked unconscious by hail. hopefully it kills more flowers in your yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 A few Faux severe storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 A few Faux severe stormsstandard garden variety although last night was cool to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Going to be quite a few wind damage reports right to the S coast . Bigger threat than hailers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Going to be quite a few wind damage reports right to the S coast . Bigger threat than hailersprobably unrelated to convective, windy as hell in the MW today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Boom, bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 standard garden variety although last night was cool to watch Yeah l agree. Standard garden variety but something to watch on radar while some hype pea sized hailers. Maybe October like graupel in NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Yeah l agree. Standard garden variety but something to watch on radar while some hype pea sized hailers. Maybe October like graupel in NNE?oh the wind is gonna crank big time and cold squalls will hit, big TTs windexy for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Boom, bang Fancy colors on a Vorticity map. Must mean severe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Fancy colors on a Vorticity map. Must mean severe! Purples and Dewpoint Depressions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 oh the wind is gonna crank big time and cold squalls will hit, big TTs windexy for you Honestly haven't looked at much but looping a few NCEP maps on the phone. Driving back to VT around midday....would be nice to see something exciting haha. Last nights storms were rocking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 probably unrelated to convective, windy as hell in the MW today Yeah that's pretty strong synoptic flow out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Starting at 34 degrees here. Satelitte imagery indicates Sun mixed with some clouds through early PM. A line of low topped convection will be approaching by mid to late afternoon.Surface based cape really only gets to 150-200 j/kg and some of the modeling completely weakens the Cape east of the CT river valley. Like others have alluded to, the depth of the cold pool aloft and wind fields are impressive enough to warrent the potential for some scattered hail cores and brief gusty winds in some of the strongest updrafts . I'm thinking pea sized and about 45mph is about the limit to what most could see. I'm not really keen on eastern areas with a later arrival time and possibly more convective inhibition . We'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 standard garden variety although last night was cool to watch Yea it was. We have a big skylight in our bedroom and the light show was cool to watch. The radarscope was a lot more impressive about 10 minutes before this but I couldn't remember how to do a screen shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The full sun today is going to help substantially . Some of the mesos look really nice between about 3:00-6:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22, 2015 Author Share Posted April 22, 2015 I had a dream last night tornadoes were in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Yea it was. We have a big skylight in our bedroom and the light show was cool to watch. The radarscope was a lot more impressive about 10 minutes before this but I couldn't remember how to do a screen shot. IMG_0596.jpg I was woken up a couple nights ago, pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 since the near miss in 11 i dream about them alot....i also have dreams where its suppossed to snow a lot but never does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I have dreams that one day I'll get more snow than the South Shore...but it also never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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