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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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AmericanWxFreak

AmericanWxFreak

Posted
Posted

Sure.  Surface CAPE is below, 1,000 j/kg (meh).  No cap to keep the lower levels primed.  PWATS are below 1.5 in (meh).  lapse rates, both mid and surface are around 6 C/km which is meh.  the only thing thing we have going for us is some decent downdraft CAPE and mid level winds so perhaps someone on a hilltop along I-81 gets a gusty thunderstorm but nothing widespread or of interest.

 

 

meh across the board. 

 

this is a good blog for severe soundings

 

http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-basics-of-severe-weather-sounding.html

 

Thank you both. Sounds like this isn't our day... Hoping to atleast squeeze out some T&L tonight...

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Sure.  Surface CAPE is below, 1,000 j/kg (meh).  No cap to keep the lower levels primed.  PWATS are below 1.5 in (meh).  lapse rates, both mid and surface are around 6 C/km which is meh.  the only thing thing we have going for us is some decent downdraft CAPE and mid level winds so perhaps someone on a hilltop along I-81 gets a gusty thunderstorm but nothing widespread or of interest.

 

:lmao:

 

SPC mesoanalysis suggests 2000 MLCAPE and 2500 SBCAPE just west of DCA

 

Wait a few more hours when the s/w energy will get here and increase the shear some

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

I should know this, but I don't.  Is there any chance the CAPE calculation in the above IAD sounding is off because of the truncation?  And IAD is now 84/70, so that would also bridge the sounding/mesoanalysis gap a little bit.

The sounding was truncated when I made the post but has since completed.  CAPE appears to be a smidge better around 1,300 j/kg but still is pretty meager.

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Scuddz

Scuddz

Posted
Posted

The sounding was truncated when I made the post but has since completed.  CAPE appears to be a smidge better around 1,300 j/kg but still is pretty meager.

 

 

There's that whole "height falls aloft" thing too ya know.

 

"ALL AREAS WILL HAVE IMPROVED MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS...AN

EXISTING MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT"

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

Even though the parameters actually look a little better than they previously did, very little of the hi-res guidance now does much of anything here this evening.    Perhaps they're wrong, but they all bring this lead broken line of cells into the area in a few hours but weaken it.   Then they have what's left of the Ohio system coming through a few hours later.     But there is definitely suggestion that some heavy rain is possible in the early or mid-morning hours Wednesday. 

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted

Even though the parameters actually look a little better than they previously did, very little of the hi-res guidance now does much of anything here this evening. Perhaps they're wrong, but they all bring this lead broken line of cells into the area in a few hours but weaken it. Then they have what's left of the Ohio system coming through a few hours later. But there is definitely suggestion that some heavy rain is possible in the early or mid-morning hours Wednesday.

I'll take it. We need the rain.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
550 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
THE CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
SOUTH CENTRAL BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM EDT  
 
* AT 549 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER MILLWOOD PIKE...AND MOVING  
EAST AT 20 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
WINCHESTER...MILLWOOD PIKE...BERRYVILLE...STEPHENS CITY...  
BLUEMONT...BOYCE...ALBIN...BRUCETOWN...WHITE POST...BRIGGS...CEDAR  
HILL...SUMMIT POINT...WADESVILLE...RIPPON...STRINGTOWN...  
MIDDLEWAY...MILLWOOD...GAYLORD...GREENWOOD AND CLEAR BROOK.  

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Never seen this before

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
555 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
VAC107-142204-  
/O.CAN.KLWX.SV.W.0180.000000T0000Z-150714T2215Z/  
LOUDOUN VA-  
555 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LOUDOUN COUNTY IS  
CANCELLED...  
 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS TURNED AND IS  
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOUDOUN COUNTY WITHIN THE WARNING PERIOD.  
 
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
557 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
EAST CENTRAL HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 630 PM EDT  
 
* AT 557 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STAR TANNERY...OR 10 MILES  
NORTHWEST OF STRASBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
FRONT ROYAL...STRASBURG...STAR TANNERY...NINEVEH...GRAVEL  
SPRINGS...WHITE POST...RIVERTON...BUCKTON...CAPON SPRINGS...WILDE  
ACRES...MIDDLETOWN...CLARY...CEDARVILLE...HIGH VIEW MANOR...FISHERS  
HILL...FORT VALLEY AND RELIANCE.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

mcd1419.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST WV AND WESTERN/CENTRAL VA
AND INTO MD/FAR NORTHERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 142210Z - 150015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WITH RELATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD
SPREAD ACROSS WV/FAR EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VA
AND POSSIBLY MD/FAR NORTHERN NC. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH APPEARS
PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF A
WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ENE-WSW ACROSS WV
INTO NORTHEAST KY AS OF 22Z/6PM EDT. A 43-KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY
MEASURED AT HUNTINGTON WV. THIS SQUALL LINE IS BEING AIDED BY
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES...AND ON THE
LARGER-SCALE BY AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER
OH RIVER VALLEY. REGIONAL WSR-88D-DERIVED WINDS SUGGEST THAT
MID-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF VA/NC REMAIN SOMEWHAT INHIBITED VIA EARLY-DAY
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION/RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...STRONG
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS IN VA AND FAR NORTHERN NC. WITH A VIABLE POTENTIAL FOR
SQUALL LINE-SUSTENANCE ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 07/14/2015


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
628 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 700 PM EDT  
 
* AT 628 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FRONT ROYAL...AND MOVING  
EAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
FRONT ROYAL...LINDEN...DELAPLANE...BLUEMONT...BOYCE...NINEVEH...  
MARKHAM...WHITE POST...RECTORTOWN...UPPERVILLE...RIVERSIDE...  
HOWELLSVILLE...BLUE MOUNTAIN...RIVERTON...BUCKTON...MILLWOOD...  
PARIS...ARMEL...MARSHALL AND CEDARVILLE.  
 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
634 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
VAC043-061-069-107-187-142300-  
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-150714T2300Z/  
LOUDOUN VA-FREDERICK VA-CLARKE VA-FAUQUIER VA-WARREN VA-  
634 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT  
FOR WEST CENTRAL LOUDOUN...SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK...SOUTHERN  
CLARKE...NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER AND NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES...  
 
AT 634 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE  
OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING  
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FRONT ROYAL...  
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
FRONT ROYAL...LINDEN...DELAPLANE...BLUEMONT...BOYCE...NINEVEH...  
MARKHAM...WHITE POST...RECTORTOWN...UPPERVILLE...RIVERSIDE...  
HOWELLSVILLE...BLUE MOUNTAIN...RIVERTON...BUCKTON...MILLWOOD...  
PARIS...ARMEL...MARSHALL AND CEDARVILLE.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 426  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
640 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA  
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND  
NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA  
WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA  
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA  
COASTAL WATERS  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM  
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND  
EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA...EITHER MAINTAINING  
INTENSITY OR (IF IT TEMPORARILY WEAKENS) STRENGTHENING AGAIN ONCE  
ENCOUNTERING FAVORABLE AIR MASS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.  
AS SUCH...DAMAGING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AND ISOLATED...MARGINALLY  
SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419 FOR  
METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.  

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

 
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
643 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
VAC043-061-069-107-187-142300-  
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-150714T2300Z/  
LOUDOUN VA-FREDERICK VA-CLARKE VA-FAUQUIER VA-WARREN VA-  
643 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT  
FOR WEST CENTRAL LOUDOUN...SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK...SOUTHERN  
CLARKE...NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER AND NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES...  
 
AT 643 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE  
OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING  
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LINDEN...OR 8  
MILES NORTHEAST OF FRONT ROYAL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
DELAPLANE...BLUEMONT...WHITE POST...RECTORTOWN...UPPERVILLE...  
MILLWOOD...PARIS...HOWELLSVILLE...BLUE MOUNTAIN...MARSHALL AND  
BETHEL.  
 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
645 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTH CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  
GREENE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 715 PM EDT  
 
* AT 645 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF  
MASSANUTTEN...OR 14 MILES EAST OF HARRISONBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT  
25 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
MADISON...STANARDSVILLE...MASSANUTTEN...ELKTON...SAINT GEORGE...  
HANEYTOWN...MCMULLEN...SWIFT RUN...ROCKY BAR...QUINQUE...SHELBY...  
SHADY GROVE...AMICUS...DYKE...MISSION HOME...WOLFTOWN...  
BURTONVILLE...NEWTOWN...LYDIA AND PRATTS

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
658 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 730 PM EDT  
 
* AT 657 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DELAPLANE...OR 12 MILES EAST  
OF FRONT ROYAL...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
THE PLAINS...MIDDLEBURG...LINDEN...DELAPLANE...BOYCE...MARKHAM...  
RECTORTOWN...BRIGGS...UPPERVILLE...PHILOMONT...HOWELLSVILLE...BLUE  
MOUNTAIN...ASHVILLE...ALDIE...MILLWOOD...SAINT LOUIS...HALFWAY...  
PARIS...MARSHALL AND BROAD RUN.  

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
EASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHWESTERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 800 PM EDT  
 
* AT 711 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STANARDSVILLE...OR 7 MILES  
WEST OF MADISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
CULPEPER...ORANGE...MADISON...STANARDSVILLE...SOMERSET...  
BRIGHTWOOD...MCMULLEN...RAPIDAN...QUINQUE...SHELBY...OAKPARK...  
MONTPELIER STATION...TWYMANS MILL...FORDSVILLE...MADISON MILLS...  
MITCHELLS...LEON...MONTFORD...OLD SOMERSET AND LOCUST DALE.  
 

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

    well, it looks like there is still a healthy amount of cape east of the mountains, so in theory the main line will intensify after it crosses - the box does go until 1AM.   But the shear is still really weak, so it's hard to think that widespread severe is a concern unless that ramps up.    HRRR does bring a line through DC around midnight.

 

Are we expecting some sort of quick development in the next couple hours? Pretty tame out there...

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