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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

MCS stuff maybe?  From afternoon LWX disco:

 

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

REPEAT MCS POTENTIAL IS THE STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING. SHOULD MCS ACTIVITY BE
QUIET...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT EAST FROM THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE BALT-WASH METRO AREAS IN THE EVENING. WENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST. IT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE BEEN A PARTICULARLY HOT DAY...SO THE AREA WILL BE
RIPE FOR MESOSCALE ACTIVITY TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MIN
TEMPS WARM...MID TO UPR 70S.

MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST. 850MB TEMPS STILL AROUND 20C RESULTING IN HOT
CONDITIONS WHERE SUN PREVAILS. MCS POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY AND COULD MESS WITH POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINE WORTH HEAT INDICES.
FOR NOW...EXPECTING AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE SUNNIEST WITH
HEAT INDICES 100-105F.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF MCS ACTIVITY...SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MIN TEMPS MILD...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY...UPR TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERITY
DEPENDS ON TIMING AND AS OF NOW THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN
POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY UPR 80S/LOW 90S. LOW TO MID 90S ARE
POSSIBLE EAST SHOULD THE FRONT BE DELAYED. WITH THE WETTER/CLOUDIER
SCENARIO THE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE GENERAL IN NATURE AS OPPOSED
TO SEVERE.

 
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Going down with the ship again?

 

LWX mentioned chance maybe late tonight and another chance at MCS in their disco for tomorrow/tomorrow night ;)

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1033 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BERMUDA HIGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT

WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END

OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

...HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE MOUNTAINS...

VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE

ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...POSSIBLY NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE

BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN

THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL CAUSE SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDICES

AROUND 105 DEGREES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH

TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES WILL BE ADEQUATE

BUT SHEAR AND FORCING MINIMAL...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE

THREAT TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM COULD MAKE IT EAST OF THE

BLUE RIDGE BUT THE CHANCES ARE MINIMAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF BUT REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE 70S WILL BE FOUND IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT NEAR 80

IN THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO.

ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID WEST

WILL TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW FAR

EAST THE STORMS CAN SURVIVE AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL IMPACT

OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS

WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE

DAY HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY LIMIT

DESTABILIZATION BY PEAK HEATING MONDAY. FCST TEMPS RANGE FROM THE

UPPER 80S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE. HEAT INDEX VALUES SEEM TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT

THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

POTENTIAL FOR MCS TO AFFECT THE AREA MON OR MON NIGHT BUT TIMING

STILL UNCERTAIN. HEIGHT FALLS ARE FCST OVER THE AREA MON AFTERNOON

ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LKS/JAMES BAY TROUGH. GFS SHOWS MAXIMUM IN

850 MB THETAE MON AFTERNOON WITH HIGH K INDICES AND PWATS AROUND

2.0 INCHES WELL IN ADVANCE OF A CDFNT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Hmmmmm

 

 

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK   

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0321 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015  
 
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION  
 
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT A BLOCKING PATTERN OF VARYING  
AMPLITUDES WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH A LARGE-SCALE  
TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL MEANDER AND PERSIST  
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AREAS DAYS  
4-5. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL CREST UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE  
ROCKIES THEN CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO BASE OF  
ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THIS REGIME WILL  
PROMOTE EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MCS  
DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE MIDDLE  
ATLANTIC AREA. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW WITH THIS PATTERN DUE IN  
LARGE PART TO POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE ANTECEDENT CONVECTION WHICH  
WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
WILL BE ON SUBSEQUENT DAYS.  
 

..DIAL.. 08/02/2015  

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND...
NORTHWESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 300 AM EDT

* AT 234 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELK GARDEN...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KEYSER...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KEYSER...ROMNEY...ELK GARDEN...FORT ASHBY...KITZMILLER...
EMORYVILLE...BURLINGTON...RIDGEVILLE...SULPHUR CITY...REESES
MILL...NEW CREEK...HARTMANSVILLE...MOUNT PISGAH...JUNCTION...
HEADSVILLE...ANTIOCH...MCCOOLE AND RUSSELLDALE.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MDC013-021-043-040700-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-150804T0700Z/
FREDERICK MD-WASHINGTON MD-CARROLL MD-
227 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 227 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER FOUNTAINHEAD-ORCHARD HILLS...OR NEAR
HAGERSTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAGERSTOWN...THURMONT...EMMITSBURG...SMITHSBURG...LONG MEADOW...
FOUNTAINHEAD-ORCHARD HILLS...PARAMOUNT-LONG MEADOW...
WILSON-CONOCOCHEAGUE...ROBINWOOD...MAUGANSVILLE...HIGHFIELD...FORT
RITCHIE...ROCKY RIDGE...WARRENTON...GRACEHAM...LEITERSBURG...
CAVETOWN...BRIDGEPORT...CASCADE AND SABILLASVILLE.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
255 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
WESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND...  
CENTRAL MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 345 AM EDT  
 
* AT 255 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER KEYSER...AND MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
CUMBERLAND...FROSTBURG...KEYSER...LONACONING...LA VALE...  
RIDGELEY...FORT ASHBY...CORRIGANVILLE...WOLFE MILL...PINTO...  
CRESAPTOWN...BRADY...POTOMAC PARK...SPRING GAP...WILEY FORD...  
ECKHART MINES...SHORT GAP...MIDLAND...NORTH BRANCH AND PATTERSON  
CREEK.  
 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
259 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...  
NORTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...  
NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...  
 
* UNTIL 345 AM EDT  
 
* AT 259 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EMMITSBURG...AND MOVING EAST  
AT 45 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
EMMITSBURG...TANEYTOWN...HAMPSTEAD...MANCHESTER...PARKTON...  
HARNEY...LINEBORO...FREELAND...GREENMOUNT...MILLERS...MONKTON...  
BENTLEY SPRINGS...HEREFORD AND MARYLAND LINE.  
 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
306 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
NORTHEASTERN HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 345 AM EDT  
 
* AT 306 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF MOOREFIELD...AND  
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
WARDENSVILLE...STAR TANNERY...GRAVEL SPRINGS...MCCAULEY...RIO...  
INKERMAN...HAYFIELD...YELLOW SPRING...LEHEW...CAPON SPRINGS...ROCK  
ENON SPRINGS...WILDE ACRES...BEAN SETTLEMENT...HIGH VIEW...  
MIDDLETOWN...CLARY...HIGH VIEW MANOR...BAKER AND GORE.  

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

mcd1603.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WV PANHANDLE NORTHERN VA...MD...NORTHERN
DE...SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PA...NJ...SOUTHEAST NY INCLUDING MUCH OF
LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040724Z - 041030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO
PART OF SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT TO
EARLY MORNING. THE MAJOR METRO AREAS INCLUDING NEW YORK
CITY/PHILADELPHIA/BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC CAN EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
MOVE THROUGH 08-10Z. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUB-SEVERE...THOUGH THE EPISODIC STRONGER CORES WILL HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 50
KT...WHILE HAIL WILL BE AN ISOLATED...SECONDARY THREAT.

DISCUSSION...AT 0715Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST NJ...SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
PA...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE/WRN MD PANHANDLE WITH STORM
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 40 KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND
MODIFIED LWX 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION HAS
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SUGGESTING THESE STORMS ARE ELEVATED.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO EARLY MORNING. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED
STRENGTHENING OF WSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS/DEEP SHEAR WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT /PW VALUES UP TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES/ AND 850-500-MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM SUGGEST SOME STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED.
ALTHOUGH HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED
STORMS...DRY...SUB-CLOUD AIR OBSERVED IN AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS COULD
ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH OR LOCALLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS. THIS
POTENTIAL IS SIMILAR TO THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH HGR PRODUCING A
48-KT GUST AT 0630Z.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/04/2015

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1603.html

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yoda

yoda

Posted
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
344 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
THE CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 430 AM EDT  
 
* AT 343 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WINCHESTER...AND MOVING EAST  
AT 45 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
WINCHESTER...CHARLES TOWN...MILLWOOD PIKE...PURCELLVILLE...  
RANSON...BERRYVILLE...STEPHENS CITY...ROUND HILL...HARPERS FERRY...  
CORPORATION OF RANSON...BLUEMONT...BOYCE...HILLSBORO...  
NEERSVILLE...WHITE POST...BOLIVAR...PHILOMONT...MILLVILLE...SUMMIT  
POINT AND HUGHESVILLE.  

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