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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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Ian

Ian

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Not sure about Monday but looks like a fairly active stretch ahead again. Waves of shortwaves through the week. Interesting stretch since June in particular. Not crazy high end overall but about as stormy as I can remember since I've lived here. I'd rate this season well.

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StudentOfClimatology

StudentOfClimatology

Posted
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Not sure about Monday but looks like a fairly active stretch ahead again. Waves of shortwaves through the week. Interesting stretch since June in particular. Not crazy high end overall but about as stormy as I can remember since I've lived here. I'd rate this season well.

The EML advection has been pushed back a bit as have the height falls..Tuesday maybe? Personally I really like the pattern progged early next week. Low bust potential w/ moderate SW flow aloft, lee troughing, progressive height falls, and high CAPE/warm boundary layer.

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high risk

high risk

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 Agree that next week has potential with embedded shortwaves in healthy WNW flow.   As noted by SofC, there is a pretty spectacular EML progged by a lot of guidance to advect east early next week.    At F84, the NAM has 8000+ sfc-based cape in IL/MO, and the GFS is over 7000.   The NAM is too moist in the low-levels, but even if you bring that back to reality, the potential for 6000+ appears to be very real if the lapse rates are being modeled properly.   (Off topic:  it almost reminds me of a Plainfield, IL type setup out there Monday).    Anyhow, if that EML doesn't get sufficiently overturned in the midwest and is advected towards the mid-Atlantic, watch out.

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Sparky

Sparky

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Not sure about Monday but looks like a fairly active stretch ahead again. Waves of shortwaves through the week. Interesting stretch since June in particular. Not crazy high end overall but about as stormy as I can remember since I've lived here. I'd rate this season well.

This season is good at producing rain but lowsy at producing healthy T&L storms at least in my neck.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

mcd1393.gif

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST WV...WESTERN VA...NORTHEAST TN...WESTERN
NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 132007Z - 132130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM
OF WATCH 410 INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE BOW ECHO OVER KY AND WV WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VARIOUS HI-RES CAMS INDICATE THAT THIS MCS WILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FURTHER EAST
IS FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME...A GRADUAL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KT IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING
THE ONGOING BOW ECHO AT LEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/VA AND
POSSIBLY TN/NC.

SHOULD CONVECTION REMAIN ORGANIZED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE
THREAT MAY THEN SHIFT EAST OVER PARTS OF THE VA/NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS EVENING. SOME LIMITING FACTORS FURTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT
WILL BE THE LINE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STABILIZING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED AFTER DARK WILL POSE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/13/2015


ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 414  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
620 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN VIRGINIA  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 620 PM  
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75  
MPH POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...LONG-LIVED COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE  
TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS  
OF WESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE PIEDMONT  
AREAS. SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397 FOR INITIAL METEOROLOGICAL  
DETAILS. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
 

VAC003-005-009-011-015-017-019-023-029-031-037-045-067-079-083-  

089-091-125-143-161-163-165-530-540-580-590-660-678-680-690-770-  

775-790-820-140500-  

/O.CON.KWNS.SV.A.0414.000000T0000Z-150714T0500Z/  

 

VA  

. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  

 

ALBEMARLE ALLEGHANY AMHERST  

APPOMATTOX AUGUSTA BATH  

BEDFORD BOTETOURT BUCKINGHAM  

CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE CRAIG  

FRANKLIN GREENE HALIFAX  

HENRY HIGHLAND NELSON  

PITTSYLVANIA ROANOKE ROCKBRIDGE  

ROCKINGHAM  

 

VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE  

 

BUENA VISTA CHARLOTTESVILLE COVINGTON  

DANVILLE HARRISONBURG LEXINGTON  

LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE ROANOKE  

SALEM STAUNTON WAYNESBORO  

 

 

WVC071-140500-  

/O.CON.KWNS.SV.A.0414.000000T0000Z-150714T0500Z/  

 

WV  

. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  

 

PENDLETON

 

 

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...LWX...  

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
812 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN NELSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 845 PM EDT  
 
* AT 812 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM  
WAS LOCATED NEAR SHIPMAN...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF BENT CREEK...AND  
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
NORWOOD...BUFFALO SPRINGS AND WINGINA.  

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