pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I'm taking the "I'll believe it when I see it" road. The trend all season has been drier and weaker and I see no reason why any of that would change now. Too many times we've been fooled into thinking that the pattern would make a major flip into a blocking regime and all Winter it's ended up either being transient or hasn't happened. Forgive me for being a debbie downer, but it's hard to ignore seasonal trends, especially when climo is becoming increasingly unfavorable each day that passes. It seems this one will be transient, so we are threading the needle so to speak. It will take a near perfect setup to get snow here post 3/20, but anything is possible I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Several quick thoughts: 1. The ensemble forecast for the rapid fall in the AO/development of blocking is extreme in magnitude (quite similar to what happened in March 1956). 2. The pattern evolution will very likely feature colder than normal readings through much of the rest of March with some milder days, once it sets in 3. The subtropical jet could become active, especially during the last 10 days of the month. 4. The above ingredients argue for an above climatological risk for accumulating snow during the last 10-15 days of the month.My guess is that cities such as Philadelphia, Newark, New York, and Boston have not seen their last accumulating snow of winter 2014-15. The 12z GFS highlighted some potential, but it's way too soon to try to pin down details other than to note that there remains potential for additional wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I think most people are still conditioned to treat mid 40s as warm based on last month, so we will manage.Based on the past week and temps near 60 you'll still hear whining with those temps, add in a good breeze and self destructive sun days, us getting deeper into March and people will be annoyed. Mornings especially when most will realize they'll have to warm up their cars with temps in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Question, If we do we see an anomalous AO drop and the development of blocking wouldn't that increase the likelihood of some type of long duration, large scale impact system, but not necessarily have any bearing on precipitation type? So in other words, wouldn't a significant rainstorm be just as likely in this upcoming pattern as a significant snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Question, If we do we see an anomalous AO drop and the development of blocking wouldn't that increase the likelihood of some type of long duration, large scale impact system, but not necessarily have any bearing on precipitation type? So in other words, wouldn't a significant rainstorm be just as likely in this upcoming pattern as a significant snowstorm? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Euro and gfs showing Teens for lows late next week for numerous nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 P types are always going to be a question mark on the coastal plain but the models are cold and are set up for something big. We have not seen this look all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 So statistically what are our chances for a snowfall 6" or greater post March 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I count (could be wrong) 3 years in which a snowfall greater than 6 inches fell after March 15th in Central Park... So 6% of years. Of course, one would think the chance of that is elevated this year, but far from a sure thing. So statistically what are our chances for a snowfall 6" or greater post March 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Question, If we do we see an anomalous AO drop and the development of blocking wouldn't that increase the likelihood of some type of long duration, large scale impact system, but not necessarily have any bearing on precipitation type? So in other words, wouldn't a significant rainstorm be just as likely in this upcoming pattern as a significant snowstorm? Definitely. It would depend where things set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Normally, I would agree with the watch and wait idea to see if it was real. That's the approach that makes sense when (ensemble)modeling has said changes out at day 10+. With that being said, this type of look has been seen before on some guidance at times this year, it has never made it inside of day 10, like it is now. Day 7 12zEPS Which, then turns into this at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Well the 18z GFS has a cutter that tries to pop a miller B but never really does. Lots of rain verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Well the 18z GFS has a cutter that tries to pop a miller B but never really does. Lots of rain verbatim. If the blocking isn't strong enough everything shifts further north, temps end up warmer, and we can forget about frozen. The 18z gfs is much warmer and further north but it's only one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 If the blocking isn't strong enough everything shifts further north, temps end up warmer, and we can forget about frozen. The 18z gfs is much warmer and further north but it's only one run. Well this is exactly my point from earlier about low confidence despite a good overall look. One run turns into two and then two into a cycle and before you know it we end up with 40's and an inch of rain like this coming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 EURO MJO No shortage of extremes going on now. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/575745938058141696 Westerly wind event underway strongest in magnitude in the central Pacific since 1997 according to NCEP Reanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 No shortage of extremes going on now. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/575745938058141696 Westerly wind event underway strongest in magnitude in the central Pacific since 1997 according to NCEP Reanalysis. Yep. That's why so many have such high confidence for something to deepen on the EC during that 10 plus day period There should be a major buckling of the trough during that period and we will finally have a NEG NAO to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Yep. That's why so many have such high confidence for something to deepen on the EC during that 10 plus day period There should be a major buckling of the trough during that period and we will finally have a NEG NAO to work with. Yeah, the 12z EPS are hinting at a possible Amarillo/ Delmarva track after day 10 which would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Yeah, the 12z EPS are hinting at a possible Amarillo/ Delmarva track after day 10 which would work. ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png Very 1994 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Very 1994 ish what happened in 1994 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Any chance of an April 6 1982 type event? Do the projected indeces look similar to that setup? There was a tremendous anomalous amount of arctic air intrusion for that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 what happened in 1994 ? what happened in 1994 ? The mean Jan 94 track . SWs traveled under the block from Amarillo to the Delmarva . It would work with the air mass being forecast . The result in March might work our even better as there would be so much warm air on the southern side w cold air to the N , you could make the argument for deeper LP resulting in a nice baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 t seems this one will be transient, so we are threading the needle so to speak. It will take a near perfect setup to get snow here post 3/20, but anything is possible I suppose. I have seen lots of mild Marches, but I have seen my share of March snows over 52 years as well.Not big snows, but decent ones. I have seen significant snow in October, November, and April. I have seen one major blizzard and two significant Aprils snows. Snow at any time in March is not unusual. No one will be shocked by a late March snow. Not here in NJ. Nor would 80 degrees be shocking. I have seen both. But I have seen more snow events than 80 degree ones, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 I count (could be wrong) 3 years in which a snowfall greater than 6 inches fell after March 15th in Central Park... So 6% of years. Of course, one would think the chance of that is elevated this year, but far from a sure thing. What are the chances for the first two weeks of December? Probably higher, but not by much I would guess, and yet no one is shocked by early December snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Was there an April storm in the 70's? People have mentioned one but I don't remember it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 I have seen lots of mild Marches, but I have seen my share of March snows over 52 years as well.Not big snows, but decent ones. I have seen significant snow in October, November, and April. I have seen one major blizzard and two significant Aprils snows. Snow at any time in March is not unusual. No one will be shocked by a late March snow. Not here in NJ. Nor would 80 degrees be shocking. I have seen both. But I have seen more snow events than 80 degree ones, IIRC. 80s in March are EXCESSIVELY rare in this region, what are you talking about? An 18" blizzard in the last 5 days of March is likely more probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 80s in March are EXCESSIVELY rare in this region, what are you talking about? An 18" blizzard in the last 5 days of March is likely more probable. There were 80 degree days in 98, and also 2001? Might have been 70's. It is not shocking. It happens. In March, ANYTHING can happen. have you not heard of this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 80s in March are EXCESSIVELY rare in this region, what are you talking about? An 18" blizzard in the last 5 days of March is likely more probable. What are the actual stats? I used to be a boater and can remember several 80 degree temps in March. But yes, snow is mmore likely, that was my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 What are the actual stats? I used to be a boater and can remember several 80 degree temps in March. But yes, snow is mmore likely, that was my point. I would say it's probably 1/15 years for March 24-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 crude spag 500mb comp\GFS surface prog stops at 24hrs ref point 66hrs for Saturdays Rainstorm-GFS surface last stop at 240hrs good luck to our peeps with a snowstorm in mind ***my take*** the op runs will trend bone dry for this period transitory phenomena 10 days away look how flat and south the estimated prog is @ 240hrs http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ drier vibe http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f240_us.html you could light a candle for fun....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Anything on the 0z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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