IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NW bias in play on the Nam. Plus it's a garbage model beyond 36-48 hours. You're much better off going with the Gfs/Euro right now. It's very easy to toss a model when it doesn't show the most desirable outcome. It's a lot harder to give a legitimate scientific explanation as to your reasoning. "NW bias" & "Garbage model" leave much to be desired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's very easy to toss a model when it doesn't show the most desirable outcome. It's a lot harder to give a legitimate scientific explanation as to your reasoning. "NW bias" & "Garbage model" leave much to be desired. I think that you can't throw this NAM run out, but at the same time you have to acknowledge the NAM's tendency to overamp, especially at this range. I think what you can take out of this run is that there is going to be 1"+ QPF to work with for most of the area and that someone should get hit relatively hard. I actually think the NAM is right I want it right now (CNJ/I-95). If you take a blend with the global models, it puts the axis of heaviest precip along I-95. At this point I am more worried about suppression than I am about it ending up to far NW. It was good too see a qpf bomb as it gives us a hint that the globals especially the EURO might be underdoing the precip at this point. I'm hoping for a major storm not a significant storm so I'll roll the dice on this one and hope for more qpf to work with even if it means a risk of tainting. There's gonna be some great dynamics on this system and its certainly the type of storm that can overperform on the qpf side, however pinpointing where the heaviest axis of precip is and runs into cold air is the tricky part. There should be an axis somewhere within our region of 8"+ IMO, but I'm not sure where that sets up. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I think that you can't throw this NAM run out, but at the same time you have to acknowledge the NAM's tendency to overamp, especially at this range. I think what you can take out of this run is that there is going to be 1"+ QPF to work with for most of the area and that someone should get hit relatively hard. I actually think the NAM is right I want it right now (CNJ/I-95). If you take a blend with the global models, it puts the axis of heaviest precip along I-95. At this point I am more worried about suppression than I am about it ending up to far NW. It was good too see a qpf bomb as it gives us a hint that the globals especially the EURO might be underdoing the precip at this point. I'm hoping for a major storm not a significant storm so I'll roll the dice on this one and hope for more qpf to work with even if it means a risk of tainting. There's gonna be some great dynamics on this system and its certainly the type of storm that can overperform on the qpf side, however pinpointing where the heaviest axis of precip is and runs into cold air is the tricky part. There should be an axis somewhere within our region of 8"+ IMO, but I'm not sure where that sets up. We shall see... Where are folks seeing an increase in precipitation on the 18Z NAM? I'm looking at 24 hour precip totals from hour 84 and getting less than 1 inch QPF. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's very easy to toss a model when it doesn't show the most desirable outcome. It's a lot harder to give a legitimate scientific explanation as to your reasoning. "NW bias" & "Garbage model" leave much to be desired. The NAM tends to have an amped bias in that period, its not always the case but generally it is...I find it hard to believe anyone near the coast will have any worries in this event other than the chance of suppression which is marginally still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM tends to have an amped bias in that period, its not always the case but generally it is...I find it hard to believe anyone near the coast will have any worries in this event other than the chance of suppression which is marginally still on the table I think we're all well aware of the NAM's tendency to be over amplified in the mid-range, but in this case we're not talking about a miller A where you would look at a track over E PA and say, "this is going to come East". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's very easy to toss a model when it doesn't show the most desirable outcome. It's a lot harder to give a legitimate scientific explanation as to your reasoning. "NW bias" & "Garbage model" leave much to be desired. dude the nam literally is the worst model there is...it had me getting 30+ inches during the blizzard and had me getting 6 withe the inverted trough like 6 hours before and i got like zero...saying its a garbage model leaves nothing to be desired and never will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 dude the nam literally is the worst model there is...it had me getting 30+ inches during the blizzard and had me getting 6 withe the inverted trough like 6 hours before and i got like zero...saying its a garbage model leaves nothing to be desired and never will. Shall I go grab the Euro run which gave me 30" of snow a couple of days before the same storm? This is a storm discussion thread, let's take the model performance discussion to a different thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Shall I go grab the Euro run which gave me 30" of snow a couple of days before the same storm? This is a storm discussion thread, let's take the model performance discussion to a different thread. So many people jump on you when you're just telling them what the model shows not personally telling them that it's going to happen. It's incredibly irritating. Facepalm people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 So many people jump on you when you're just telling them what the model shows not personally telling them that it's going to happen. It's incredibly irritating. Facepalm people. Indeed, I debated not even discussing the NAM because I knew the attacks would fly when it wasn't what people wanted to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Indeed, I debated not even discussing the NAM because I knew the attacks would fly when it wasn't what people wanted to hear. no one is attacking you...u said saying the nam is garbage leaves alot to be desired...which it doesnt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 By hr 57 12am Thursday the snow rain line is south of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hr 60 light snow in the area. Early guess this run comes nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hr 63 mod snow Ttn to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 no one is attacking you...u said saying the nam is garbage leaves alot to be desired...which it doesnt lol There is no place for that in here. If you want to discuss the performance of the NAM I'll be happy to discuss it with you elsewhere. I'm trying to improve the quality of the discussion in here. One liners like "That model is garbage" adds nothing of value to the discussion, regardless of the validity of the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hr 66 heavy snow Ttn south Mod snow nyc Nw light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 15z mod snow continues. 95 jack pots because of colder temps. Se of 95 into south jersey fights sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The GFS is a huge hit for SE PA, C, SNJ, LI. 10-18" of snow on SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Over by 10am Thursday. 10-12 nyc some of that is sleet 12+ in snj but a lot of that is sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The GFS is a huge hit for SE PA, C, SNJ, LI. 10-18" of snow on SV. whats the res of the area look like? jw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Right now, it is really premature to be trying to pin down details for the wave of low pressure that is forecast to follow the Tuesday night-Wednesday system. While a messy solution is on the table, so are colder, snowier ones. Indeed, the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook states: IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. To date, March has seen 4.8" snow for NYC. By itself, that's pretty impressive for recent years. For example just one-third of years in the 2000-2014 timeframe saw 4" or more snow in March. Furthermore, 27% saw 6" or more and just 7" saw 8" or more. If the system on Tuesday night delivers consistent with most of the guidance, NYC's March snowfall will be somewhere between 5.5"-6.5". Then, if the system winds up even modestly colder than the NAM (which is not a medium-range model), 10" monthly snowfall might be reachable. The last time March saw 10" snowfall for the month was 1996 when 13.2" fell. Right now, all the snow that lies ahead should be seen as a nice bonus. The entire region has had above normal snowfall through March 1. Obviously, this winter has seen Suffolk County and New London County do best relative to normal when it comes to snowfall. Coupled with February's extreme cold, winter 2014-15 has been a very good one. December's warmth and the early lack of snowfall in January does not really change this. Hopefully, the follow-up system to Tuesday's night's one will provide a widespread and significant snowfall, but the details have yet to be worked out. There's no reason to latch onto either the snowiest or least snowy solutions right now, especially as the overall synoptic pattern is complex and small details will likely make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Sharp cut off North of Rt. 80 on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Great run for nyc Li and north central nj 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 2"+ LE total from both events from DC to the extreme south shore of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Just have my phone attm, what is it like for our area, I'm assuming way less than 10? Its a carbon copy of 12z for areas N of NYC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Its a carbon copy of 12z for areas N of NYC..Thanks. Well I guess we are starting to approach some sort of consensus here, minus the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 this storm has the potential to put me and alot of suffolk over 60 inches for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18z GFS is ripping snow in Suffolk HRS 63 - 69. This sounding is HR 60, it gets colder after this, and this is for my location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Can't wait for.the ensembles. Did this end up further north at all from 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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