UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not so much a MECS maybe a SECS is more likely at this point. Again only if the nam is right.. It would be a major interior Storm, but any ticks South with a juicy solution like the nam is showing for a few runs now would be a MECS for most the city and surrounding areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not so much a MECS maybe a SECS is more likely at this point. If we're talking over an inch of liquid then MECS is on the table. I wouldn't be surprised to see models trend wetter with this given the massive moisture feed from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If we're talking over an inch of liquid then MECS is on the table. I wouldn't be surprised to see models trend wetter with this given the massive moisture feed from the south. Yes, juice up that baby! Let's get the Amazon jungle feed into this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If we're talking over an inch of liquid then MECS is on the table. I wouldn't be surprised to see models trend wetter with this given the massive moisture feed from the south. All the moisture and warm air to the south can mean this ticks north and hangs up the cold front, too. I wouldn't cash anything in yet, but someone should get a very nice event out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The snow maps are picking up the plus 1 at 700 at hour 57 and 60 in the city and LI and plus 2 in CNJ so you are seeing lower totals The 850s at KNYC at hour 57 are -2. At hour 60 - 6 , however at 700 its plus 1 . The good thing is at 18z those 700s were plus 2 to plus 4 so the NAM actually cooled . A positive here is the guidance is ticking up in terms of QPF so that will help everyone. Lastly those 700s are wrong. The NAM is making an error resolving the layer at 700 Look for that cool and come in line with the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If we're talking over an inch of liquid then MECS is on the table. I wouldn't be surprised to see models trend wetter with this given the massive moisture feed from the south. Shoot i dont it being a MECS lol. Just gotta wait and see what the gfs has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 All the moisture and warm air to the south can mean this ticks north and hangs up the cold front, too. I wouldn't cash anything in yet, but someone should get a very nice event out of this. The low would have to trend stronger or the SE ridge would need to get stronger otherwise the arctic high will keep pressing east. The seasonal trend has been for the high to keep pressing and focusing the heaviest moisture further south thus some of our NW screw zones. Anything can still happen 2+ days out though so I don't question those who are being cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The low would have to trend stronger or the SE ridge would need to get stronger otherwise the arctic high will keep pressing east. The seasonal trend has been for the high to keep pressing and focusing the heaviest moisture further south thus some of our NW screw zones. Anything can still happen 2+ days out though so I don't question those who are being cautious. Winds below 700 are weak so the push is an error. The 4k nam at 60 is colder and is snow at KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The low would have to trend stronger or the SE ridge would need to get stronger otherwise the arctic high will keep pressing east. The seasonal trend has been for the high to keep pressing and focusing the heaviest moisture further south thus some of our NW screw zones. Anything can still happen 2+ days out though so I don't question those who are being cautious. Caution is good because you have an arctic high pressing south behind the front, it's going to compress the precip field there is going to be a sharp cutoff/subsidence somewhere to the north, where that will be? Who knows at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nam did come slightly south FWIW - 540 line did come further south on 00Z, but northern areas still get slammed. 18Z at 66 hours (top) and 00Z at 60 hours (bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 At 48 the RGEM is not as far NW as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It would be nice to break double didgit totals up here for the first time all season. I'm so tired of being fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Here's a big issue on the 0z NAM: warm mid level air. This is for JFK at 60hr: 5 800 1872 -3.4 -3.7 98 0.3 -3.6 196 23 287.5 288.1 280.4 298.0 3.636 750 2386 2.6 2.6 99 0.1 2.6 224 71 299.4 300.6 288.0 317.7 6.157 700 2945 1.8 1.7 99 0.1 1.8 233 89 304.5 305.7 289.8 323.2 6.198 650 3539 -1.5 -1.8 98 0.3 -1.7 240 94 307.3 308.2 289.7 323.1 5.1 Note the bolded-the last numbers are temps at those levels. That's definitely big-time sleet. Again, ignore the clown snow maps which count sleet as snow. This has to cool down quite a bit in future runs. The warmth and moisture has to be lifted up somewhere, and the heavy precip means warm air at mid levels. It's the NAM, but watch out for this on other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Rgem at hr 48 which is 18z wed is further North then the nam.... Both are 18z wed Top is nam Bottom is rgem Both 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Both are 18z wed Top is nam Bottom is rgem Both 00z runs This view looked south to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It would be nice to break double didgit totals up here for the first time all season. I'm so tired of being fringed. Yeah man, tell me about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This view looked south to me That does look a tad South, it's odd the low placement may be South of the nam but the precip shield is juicer and further north.. Maybe picking up on the juicer solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Here's a big issue on the 0z NAM: warm mid level air. This is for JFK at 60hr: 5 800 1872 -3.4 -3.7 98 0.3 -3.6 196 23 287.5 288.1 280.4 298.0 3.63 6 750 2386 2.6 2.6 99 0.1 2.6 224 71 299.4 300.6 288.0 317.7 6.15 7 700 2945 1.8 1.7 99 0.1 1.8 233 89 304.5 305.7 289.8 323.2 6.19 8 650 3539 -1.5 -1.8 98 0.3 -1.7 240 94 307.3 308.2 289.7 323.1 5.1 Note the bolded-the last numbers are temps at those levels. That's definitely big-time sleet. Again, ignore the clown snow maps which count sleet as snow. This has to cool down quite a bit in future runs. The warmth and moisture has to be lifted up somewhere, and the heavy precip means warm air at mid levels. It's the NAM, but watch out for this on other models. Here's my backyard in Edison same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Temperature profile at 650 & 700mb is zeo on accuweather pro during those time periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Just check the forecast sounding at accuweather pro and it is just about the same. So if it was to verify it would be sleet, but the NAM is most likely a little too far north and too warm, so at this time I favor a snow forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs looks further se so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 hr 57 light snow for the area. Steady snow snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hr 60 light snow continues. Mod snow long island snj...def a shift se from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 4-8 nyc 8-10 north central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 4-8 nyc 8-10 north central nj Sounds like a little more than light snow then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sounds like a little more than light snow then. Yea it's a Pretty solid hit for city South, advisory snows north of that.. Still not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sounds like a little more than light snow then.The GFS also gives 2-3" for many areas tmrw night, so if that is factored into the 4-8, then it's a lighter snow event.....this run actually has the precip shield more expansive and a bit further north. Looks to me like 4-6" for the NYC area and 6-8" further south into NJ. Not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I hate to say it but GFS and euro are identical with that southern solution, both have the low passing over South carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The only thing that makes me a bit confident is that the euro hasnt gotten a single Storm right this year, if GGEM looks like GFS ill bite on the euro/GFS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The GFS also gives 2-3" for many areas tmrw night, so if that is factored into the 4-8, then it's a lighter snow event.....this run actually has the precip shield more expansive and a bit further north It shows .50 to .75 for late Wed night and Thur, so that's a solid 6 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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