• Member Statistics

    15,537
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gino27
    Newest Member
    Gino27
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
moneypitmike

February 17-18 Event

Recommended Posts

What!? Lol, who?

Scott(CoastalWx) was a few days ago back when this was a big NNE hit and had mixing issues in SNE, but I think Kevin is digging up old thoughts here and making them current.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The evolution is different from about 24-36 hours ago...the storm is now being focused on the leading vort energy rather than the stuff that digs deeper behind it...so there isn't as much room for this to come north....when the deeper amplifying energy comes behind it, it could cause an inverted trough light snows behind the front running system

 

That said, the front runner can still hit us, but there's little to no chance of mixing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Scooter had been up until yesterday..but he hasn't posted about it since

 

To be clear, I said at the time, I would worry more about mixing then a whiff. That was when the models had a big vortmax moving north with a parent low in the Great Lakes. Now, a weak s/w moves out ahead of the main trough and causes a low to move SE of ACK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The evolution is different from about 24-36 hours ago...the storm is now being focused on the leading vort energy rather than the stuff that digs deeper behind it...so there isn't as much room for this to come north....when the deeper amplifying energy comes behind it, it could cause an inverted trough light snows behind the front running system

 

That said, the front runner can still hit us, but there's little to no chance of mixing.

is this thread for both systems?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

is this thread for both systems?

 

 

Yes...its really the same trough..the systems are not distinct enough to really call it two seperate "events".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It doesn't seem like we'd have 2 events. This would appear to be one of those where models sort of morph it into one storm

 

 

The models don't have two events anyway...there's no baroclinic zone to work with for the 2nd shortwave...it may blossom an area of light snow or snow showers on the heals of the first one...but it's not like it's a whole seperate significant system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This will trend a bit north I think. Given the vort max track over CVG-HGR-NYC, I'd expect light snow across SNE. Heavier stuff down in NYC/PHL/DCA. 

 

Not much blocking, so this thing is in and out quick. Probably a widespread 3-6"/4-8" event in the Mid-Atl.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RGEM still looks like a scraper at the end of it's range...probably like a 1-3 type deal, though perhaps more in far SE zones like Cape and SE RI. We'll know more though once the rest of the 12z suite comes out and the RGEM will become more useful tonight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS still a scrapper 1-3" more SE areas

 

Yeah, but there's a tiny bit more proximity compared with the prior run.

 

I'm not expecting huge leaps this close in, but hey, whatever. My opinion is that the GFS can do whatever it wants right now, kind of like how David Ortiz could've stabbed his own mother in November of 2004 and we would've been like "That is a good man."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is the 72h panel of the GFS.  Lower left box you can see the spin up just off Cap Ann.

 

post-238-0-06482100-1424016806_thumb.gif

 

 

Here is the 12km NAM, you can see the same spin up a little further S and hugging the coastline.

 

post-238-0-61711000-1424016892_thumb.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.