pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 15 at 7pm in NYC. Central Park just needs to drop under 10 before midnight so it can get 2 more single digit low days in February. That would bring NYC to 5 on the month and 5th place with more single digit potential before the month ends. Top February single digit days in NYC: 12...1875 10...1934 8.....1979 6.....1917, 1914, 1881 3......2015...so far Gonna be close for midnight. Usually when the PWSs around the city start falling off a cliff, you can expect some pretty good drops from the hourly park readings. I'm not seeing action like we saw on Sunday yet. Literally after 3pm on Sunday, things just took a nosedive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gonna be close for midnight. Usually when the PWSs around the city start falling off a cliff, you can expect some pretty good drops from the hourly park readings. I'm not seeing action like we saw on Sunday yet. Literally after 3pm on Sunday, things just took a nosedive.the CAA peaked earlier than this wave will. the coldest 850's occur around 6z on the latest nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 the CAA peaked earlier than this wave will. the coldest 850's occur around 6z on the latest nam So 1am, yea that is better timing. I guess pushing everything up about 3 hrs, we should really start to see temps falling fast right around now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Also, is it just me, or is the core of this cold push directed more to our west this go around? Today, DC and PHL have both stayed colder than us, and further to the west it barely got about 10 today (my town in VA is already close to 0 now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/8loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCowboy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/8loop.html My hometown in southern Missouri was minus 19 this morning. Broke the record for the date by 23 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Central Park dropped one degree to 14. Dew Point dropped three degrees to -6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think I have a unique perspective of this cold wave vs the last one as I was out side for both. (Work outside not just a few minutes) This one feels like a cold winter night the kind you experience every couple winters. Sunday night was on another level. It had a feel to it that was different. For me the best comparison is at the summits in Vermont with similar temp dew and wind combo. You take a deep breath through your nose and it freezes. It's not doing that out there tonight. Well see what happens later but I think the colder 850s this time just cruise over the city without that crazy CAA the other night. 6 is still solid this late in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think I have a unique perspective of this cold wave vs the last one as I was out side for both. (Work outside not just a few minutes) This one feels like a cold winter night the kind you experience every couple winters. Sunday night was on another level. It had a feel to it that was different. For me the best comparison is at the summits in Vermont with similar temp dew and wind combo. You take a deep breath through your nose and it freezes. It's not doing that out there tonight. Well see what happens later but I think the colder 850s this time just cruise over the city without that crazy CAA the other night. 6 is still solid this late in the season Because it dropped 3 degrees per hour during hours that people are awake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 still flurries and clouds in the way...when they clear out temps should drop off faster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 still flurries and clouds in the way...when they clear out temps should drop off faster... Interesting streamers from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 KNYC dropped another single degree to 13. DP dropped another three degrees to -9. Will we hit single-digits before midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nice little snow shower here in northern Monmouth county on my way home from a work assignment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Down to 12 in SW Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm up in Jeffersonville NY right now current temp... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Obviously it is not going to get this cold, but still interesting to see nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Central Park dropped two degrees to 11. DP also dropped two degrees to -11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 KNYC dropped another single degree to 13. DP dropped another three degrees to -9. Will we hit single-digits before midnight? Looking likely, down to 11 with 2 hrs yet to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Obviously it is not going to get this cold, but still interesting to see nevertheless. This isn't the surface temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18Z GFS MOS had NYC at 15 at 03Z, NAM had them at 11, so its doing much better so far, I highly doubt the NAM's 3 will verify though, but neither will the GFS 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18Z GFS MOS had NYC at 15 at 03Z, NAM had them at 11, so its doing much better so far, I highly doubt the NAM's 3 will verify though, but neither will the GFS 9. Your idea of 4 or 5 seems the most reasonable. We'll probably get to that around 3am or so and hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CAA had kicked in big time by the time I got back to the island. Winds were ripping over the train platform definitely the worst part about commuting on the south shore as our platforms are raised 30' In the air. Old snow was blowing an drifting out of a field. About as nasty as it gets to be outside. I hope cpk gets below 10 before midnight. Looks on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Your idea of 4 or 5 seems the most reasonable. We'll probably get to that around 3am or so and hold. NYC is easy to predict based on 850s, you have to make adjustment for wind and snow cover but usually -25 to -28C or so gets you to about 4-5 with WNW wind flow and either no snowpack or a stale snowpack, if the wind flow is more NW or you have fresh deep snow on the ground you can usually take it down to about 1-3. Anything less than -28C you have a legit shot at 0 or below as long as winds are not 270-290. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NYC is easy to predict based on 850s, you have to make adjustment for wind and snow cover but usually -25 to -28C or so gets you to about 4-5 with WNW wind flow and either no snowpack or a stale snowpack, if the wind flow is more NW or you have fresh deep snow on the ground you can usually take it down to about 1-3. Anything less than -28C you have a legit shot at 0 or below as long as winds are not 270-290. Yea, when there is virtually no radiational cooling, it takes out one of the variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NYC is easy to predict based on 850s, you have to make adjustment for wind and snow cover but usually -25 to -28C or so gets you to about 4-5 with WNW wind flow and either no snowpack or a stale snowpack, if the wind flow is more NW or you have fresh deep snow on the ground you can usually take it down to about 1-3. Anything less than -28C you have a legit shot at 0 or below as long as winds are not 270-290. Wouldn't -28C 850s be all-time record territory for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I know it's not this area nor would indicate what might happen in this area,Saranak Lake, (SLK) went from 0/-6 to -5/-11 in one hour http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSLK.html **** oh never mind, didn't notice obs stopped b/w 18:51 to 21:51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I know it's not this area nor would indicate what might happen in this area, Saranak Lake, (SLK) went from 0/-6 to -5/-11 in one hour http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSLK.html **** oh never mind, didn't notice obs stopped b/w 18:51 to 21:51 They also regularly go below -30. That's one of the coldest spots in the east!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I know it's not this area nor would indicate what might happen in this area, Saranak Lake, (SLK) went from 0/-6 to -5/-11 in one hour http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSLK.html **** oh never mind, didn't notice obs stopped b/w 18:51 to 21:51 It's -8/-15 in Hot Springs, VA (Bath County, SW of Staunton, near the WV border): METAR KHSP 200315Z AUTO 30020G28KT 260V320 4SM HZ OVC019 M22/M26 A2983 RMK AO2 T12221263 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wouldn't -28C 850s be all-time record territory for NYC? No, most of the 80s outbreaks where they went below 0 or EWR and nearby areas went below 0 they were -30C or less I believe...I think the Christmas 1980 one it was -32C when I looked at the reanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 10/-8 now in the park. I would be shocked if they didn't get to single digits before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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