MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Going to be a whiff...we can't win this winter Calm down. 100+ hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Still gives the area a light to moderate snowfall. GFS is right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Don't worry, Doorman will take us to the promise land with this storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sub 990 outside the bm 2-4/3-6 type deal costal sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sub 990 outside the bm 2-4/3-6 type deal costal sections Perfect spot this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Haha the low jumped 250 miles south this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It can't whiff. That surface high off the Iberian Peninsula precludes such a scenario. (all in good fun—we have every reason to stay the course.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 A lot of optimists on here. Realize that this thing started off as an inland runner near Buffalo!. 6 straight runs all moving 50+ miles with each run. ( some 100+ miles). This thing may be over Bermuda by tuesday-wednesday with this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the sentence "the only real threat" should be removed from this thread" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Naturally, after I said p-type issues should be the biggest concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ggem is a whiff...brutal. Story of this winter flat and weak or north/progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z Ukie for next week Ggem is a whiff...brutal. Story of this winter flat and weak or north/progressive This winter hasn't been bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Relax Cats resolution issues-imo check this comp it lost all three markers???? we don't give in so fast.... the system is at 992mb op run at that my progs are from the ENS blend I did state to give this another 24hr window-YES?? spot check the ENS when they come out bet ya feel better then btw the Winter Flights will also help tighten things up --good or bad a very busy day out there http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&nontasked=2015 dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ggem is a whiff...brutal. Story of this winter flat and weak or north/progressive It'd be nice to get the northern stream less involved so the southern stream shortwave can amplify. Of course, then we run the risk of warmth. I guess we can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We cannot win this year. Luckily we have time with this one. Strong odds Central Park reaches or goes over their seasonal snow fall avg this weekend. All in all a decent winter. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It'd be nice to get the northern stream less involved so the southern stream shortwave can amplify. Of course, then we run the risk of warmth. I guess we can't win. You have over 25 inches. That's great compared to people to your south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It'd be nice to get the northern stream less involved so the southern stream shortwave can amplify. Of course, then we run the risk of warmth. I guess we can't win. I have done better with front end dumps and cutters then. Northern stream disturbances. Please let this cut into tenn. I will take the 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAVGEM looks to be west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You have over 25 inches. That's great compared to people to your south. I actually have 37.1" but that's pretty bad compared to the other side of the state I live in I am basically on pace for an average season while they clean up with 150-200% of average. In other words, I know what it's like to get screwed. I had 36" in '09-'10 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DT saying he does not buy the CMC or GFS and that no low is staying suppressed on the East Coast this winter....I have to agree....central GA and AL do not see snowstorms in this sort of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DT saying he does not buy the CMC or GFS and that no low is staying suppressed on the East Coast this winter....I have to agree....central GA and AL do not see snowstorms in this sort of winter. North trend to commence lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS verbatim could be snow or ice even down here in Austin-cold air here notoriously pushes south of the 850mb zero line which causes the freezing rain/sleet outbreaks around DFW. It doesn't reach down here often but a setup like that is how it happens. There's a strong high pressing east of the Rockies as well to cool the surface. I'd love to see this city try to function with 1-3" of snow and freezing rain. You think Boston is having a hard time now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gefs mean over the benchmark...Lolz fluke, 5 day out jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2015021300&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=266.6666666666667 GEFS -ENS comp oh........ them that hug the rug anyway you cut it ...the B.M. is the red zone on back to back runs free euro look in for good measure 120 hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015021300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 00z euros another swing and a miss, low exits nearly 350 miles off the South Carolina coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro is way east totally OTS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Considering the trends this winter... this is exactly where we want it 120h out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Considering the trends this winter... this is exactly where we want it 120h out.... I wouldn't say that.. its way East of the 12z, and would literally need a 400-500 mile shift west Along with much better low placement to even scrape us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Considering the trends this winter... this is exactly where we want it 120h out.... You're just trolling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This almost isnt even real. After an inland runner going over Buffalo ( and people panicking aboutn rain for us), we had 6 straight runs moving south and or east 50-150 miles each run. Now the latest run shifts an additional 350 miles!! Not sure I've ever seen such a change in a 72 hour period. I realize it's post 100 hours for these models, but...shouldn't the models be doing a little better than this in this 120-144 hour time frame?? Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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