Doorman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021212/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_24.png later folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021212/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_24.png later folks that is BEAUTIFUL!!! perfect spot... too bad we are still 5-6 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021212/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_24.png later folks BM or very close... That's a great look for the coast, and locations just west of there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 18z GFS shifted the surface low East. Solid hit but ends up East of the benchmark. The good news is that it should have a ton of moisture to work with and it doesn't wrap up that quickly so even with the surface low East it should still throw back decent moisture. Looks like 6-10" areawide this run. Better than the Euro and less mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 18z GFS shifted the surface low East. Solid hit but ends up East of the benchmark. The good news is that it should have a ton of moisture to work with and it doesn't wrap up that quickly so even with the surface low East it should still throw back decent moisture. Looks like 6-10" areawide this run. Better than the Euro and less mixing issues. Its gotta stop trending east though. Does this new GFS still have a south east bias on Miller A's like the old one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Its gotta stop trending east though. Does this new GFS still have a south east bias on Miller A's like the old one?i think this is the first miller a for the new GFS so it will be telling if it has the same bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 i think this is the first miller a for the new GFS so it will be telling if it has the same biasno it's not this is the second one. The first one was last Monday when we had snow to ice to snow and it clearly did a good job with it but euro was better with the colder air aloft! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 no it's not this is the second one. The first one was last Monday when we had snow to ice to snow and it clearly did a good job with it but euro was better with the colder air aloft! That wasn't a miller A. The parent low tracked to the Ohio Valley. That's a miller B. This will be the first true miller A. The blizzard from a few weeks ago was more of a hybrid. For a true miller A you want a southern stream system ejecting out of the southwest and then a northern stream phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That wasn't a miller A. The parent low tracked to the Ohio Valley. That's a miller B. This will be the first true miller A. The blizzard from a few weeks ago was more of a hybrid. For a true miller A you want a southern stream system ejecting out of the southwest and then a northern stream phase. ur right I apologize. so this will be a good test for the GFS normally the euro is much better with this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So what if it shifted. It's not going to be exactly in the same spot every model run. I'd rather have it east than west right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So what if it shifted. It's not going to be exactly in the same spot every model run. I'd rather have it east than west right now. Its just something to watch that's all. Each run, correct me if im wrong, has shifted east. I'd be thrilled if this is what it showed on monday or if it verified. This winter has taught me to temper expectations until 36-48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Its just something to watch that's all. Each run, correct me if im wrong, has shifted east. I'd be thrilled if this is what it showed on monday or if it verified. This winter has taught me to temper expectations until 36-48 hours out.no from what I remember it's been wiggling left and right the past few runs but still have been getting hits of 4-12 inches generally speaking. Some with rain and ice! But I wouldn't worry too much until Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 no from what I remember it's been wiggling left and right the past few runs but still have been getting hits of 4-12 inches generally speaking. Some with rain and ice! But I wouldn't worry too much until Sunday! Here are the last 4 runs of the GFS in gif format at the same time frame. Notice the east shift. I'm not trying to poo-poo anything, just pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nice work 777 I will take a stab and say this is about the max we come east....with this system all three ENS have the back to back Atlantic High pressure ( a double brick wall- imo) at this point lets get another 24 hr window of runs and see if this idea holds water---then the Benchmark track from today's blend of guidance should keep NYC all snow and hopefully stay in line until showtime excuse my typos dm http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015021212&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=177.33333333333334 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015021212&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=177.33333333333334 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015021212&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=177.33333333333334 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nice work 777 I will take a stab and say this is about the max we come east....with this system all three ENS have the back to back Atlantic High pressures ( a double brick wall- imo) at this point lets get another 24 hr window of runs and see if this idea holds water---then the Benchmark track from today's blend of guidance should keep NYC all snow and hopefully stay in line until showtime excuse my typos dm http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015021212&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=177.33333333333334 en-atl.gif Thats what I am hoping for. If this continues to go east 20 miles every run than its a problem. Though, if this is the furtherst east this gets than that's perfect for most ppl on this sub-forum. Even some west of the Delaware River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One thing I note is that this does not have, at least progged as of now, the sharp cutoff that has become recently dominant in these setups. In other words, at least verbatim, it's not like 20 miles is taking you from 12" to 2" or something like that. Of course, it could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One thing I note is that this does not have, at least progged as of now, the sharp cutoff that has become recently dominant in these setups. In other words, at least verbatim, it's not like 20 miles is taking you from 12" to 2" or something like that. Of course, it could change. Very true. A nice west shift or if it just stayed in place at 0z would be reassuring. We might finally get a chance to see if the south east bias has been corrected with the upgrade one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DGEX shows sub-990mb on BM, I think this will correct a little west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just looking at the overall pattern, I'd be more concerned with p-type issues than a miss. Just based off the ridge axis at 500 mb and the jet streak orientation at 300 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just looking at the overall pattern, I'd be more concerned with p-type issues than a miss. Just based off the ridge axis at 500 mb and the jet streak orientation at 300 mb. Agree Your blizzard video was great lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Agree Your blizzard video was great lol Lol, thanks. Yeah that was uh, quite the meltdown. I am going to start hanging out in your guys' subforum a little more often. I don't think they much care for me up in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol, thanks. Yeah that was uh, quite the meltdown. I am going to start hanging out in your guys' subforum a little more often. I don't think they much care for me up in New England. Come on in the water is Luke!. Misery loves company! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Come on in the water is Luke!. Misery loves company! Are you really at 15.2" for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Are you really at 15.2" for the season? Lol no. 22 but I haven't updated it since the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg free map snow for NYC..... no extra charge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 from 10:42 am this morning WRN NOAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION ALSO LEADS TO AN INCREASINGLYFAVORABLE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE/WAA RETURN FLOW PATTERN MON-WEDINTO/OVER AMBIENT AND SLOWLY RECEEDING LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR ACROSSTHE EAST-CENTRAL US DOWNSTREAM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WAVY COLD FRONT.PENDING STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS AND SWEATING THE IMPORTANTSMALLER SCALE DETAILS...THIS OFFERS SOME PROLONGED HEAVIER PERIODSOF SNOW AND DANGEROUS/TRANSITIONAL HEAVY ICING ACROSS APOTENTIALLY LARGE THREAT AREA IN VICINITY FROM THE S-CENTRALPLAINS/MS VALLEY MON NEWD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL US AND ERN/NERN USON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING OVERALL PCPN SHIELD. WPCWEATHER/PCPN TYPE GRIDS OFFER A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION AND A MOREAMPLIFIED DAY 6/7 WPC SCENARIO LEAVES THE DOOR MORE OPEN FORPOSSIBLE TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENTS THAT COULD ADDCONVERGENCE/PCPN THREAT.SCHICHTEL he is the schic........ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ridge looks a bit further west on the the gfs so far this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS might be out to sea on this run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Going to be a whiff...we can't win this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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