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Feb 17 Miller A Threat


Zelocita Weather

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However..ECM buries the region the 21-22nd!

 

Can you elaborate a little?  Have huge plans next Saturday night with a few hundred folks coming to New Brunswick, NJ for a big shindig and a big storm on Saturday night would be a problem for many traveling from further away than me (I'll have no issue being 5 miles away).  Thanks.  

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Can you elaborate a little?  Have huge plans next Saturday night with a few hundred folks coming to New Brunswick, NJ for a big shindig and a big storm on Saturday night would be a problem for many traveling from further away than me (I'll have no issue being 5 miles away).  Thanks.  

 

It is 7+ days out & the EURO likes to show big snowstorms in the LR, but it shows a MECS from the SE to NE 

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It is 7+ days out & the EURO likes to show big snowstorms in the LR, but it shows a MECS from the SE to NE 

Thanks - I know it's far enough off to not panic about, but now I know I should pay attention.  While there are tons of model storms in the LR that don't pan out, it's rare for a real storm to have not been modeled as storms by at least a couple of the models in the LR.  

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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1423920599

 

 

 

 

mt holly

 

TUESDAY...DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED BUT IT SHOULD SNOW. 00Z/14 GEFS
SUPPORT AS WELL AS 03Z/14 SREF AND TELCON AT 3 AM WITH WPC D4
QPF.
THE 00Z/14 ECMWF AND GGEM DO NOT AGREE SO POPS ONLY LIKELY
ATTM. STILL UNCERTAINTY. COULD BE ADVISORY OR EVEN LOWER WARNING
CRITERIA BUT FAR FAR TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT OF AMOUNTS. A MIX
OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND MAYBE EVEN A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST.

 

 

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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1423920599

mt holly

TUESDAY...DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED BUT IT SHOULD SNOW. 00Z/14 GEFS

SUPPORT AS WELL AS 03Z/14 SREF AND TELCON AT 3 AM WITH WPC D4

[url="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF'>QPF. THE 00Z/14 ECMWF AND GGEM DO NOT AGREE SO POPS ONLY LIKELY

ATTM. STILL UNCERTAINTY. COULD BE ADVISORY OR EVEN LOWER WARNING

CRITERIA BUT FAR FAR TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT OF AMOUNTS. A MIX

OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND MAYBE EVEN A

CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

That wpc map is pretty Far East of their previous maps. I'm assuming the euro ensembles are also east

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I think this one is OTS, even if the 2nd wave down south amps up the first wave may ultimately force everything too far east, all the 12Z Models so far have come in south with the first wave towards the euro, my guess is this one is not coming back

Way too early to know ...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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