robPAwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 DC is only getting 2-3"...I doubt it lol toss it tbh, makes no sense reports out of dc reporting 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Here are some totals from Sterling NWS (NWS DC)...to give you some idea on how it is progressing...Obviously Virginia a large state with a good size mountain range on the western border...so take what you can from it...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC600 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 8HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATIONIS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARNSPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLEON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BALTIMORE********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTMARYLAND...ALLEGANY COUNTY...FROSTBURG 1.0 400 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTERFROSTBURG T 200 PM 2/16 PUBLIC...CALVERT COUNTY...PRINCE FREDERICK 0.2 338 PM 2/16 PUBLIC...CHARLES COUNTY...LA PLATA 0.5 419 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTER1 SW DENTSVILLE 0.3 353 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTERLA PLATA 0.1 253 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIA...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...1 SW OXON HILL 0.5 500 PM 2/16 CO-OP OBSERVER...ST. MARYS COUNTY...2 W CALLAWAY T 316 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTERLEONARDTOWN T 216 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIA2 NE BUSHWOOD T 314 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTERVIRGINIA...ALBEMARLE COUNTY...2 E FREE UNION T 1220 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTER...ARLINGTON COUNTY...REAGAN NATIONAL AIRP 0.1 400 PM 2/16 AIRPORT...AUGUSTA COUNTY...MIDDLEBROOK 3.0 500 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIACHURCHVILLE 2.3 500 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIASTUARTS DRAFT 1.5 554 PM 2/16 AMATEUR RADIO...CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...1 SSE CHARLOTTESVILL 0.6 300 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIA1 SSE CHARLOTTESVILL 0.5 538 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTERCHARLOTTESVILLE T 1145 AM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIA...CITY OF FAIRFAX...FAIRFAX T 215 PM 2/16 PUBLIC...CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG...NW FREDERICKSBURG T 126 PM 2/16 PUBLIC...CITY OF HARRISONBURG...HARRISONBURG 1.8 530 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIA...CITY OF MANASSAS...MANASSAS T 132 PM 2/16 PUBLIC...CITY OF WAYNESBORO...WAYNESBORO 1.3 500 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIA2 WSW WAYNESBORO 1.0 230 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTER...CITY OF WINCHESTER...2 S WINCHESTER T 136 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTER...CULPEPER COUNTY...1 W CULPEPER 1.0 359 PM 2/16 PUBLICCULPEPER T 1258 PM 2/16 PUBLIC...FAIRFAX COUNTY...3 SE CHANTILLY 1.0 554 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTER1 NNE HERNDON 0.5 525 PM 2/16 NWS EMPLOYEEVIENNA T 237 PM 2/16 CO-OP OBSERVER...FAUQUIER COUNTY...1 WSW NEW BALTIMORE 2.0 520 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTEROPAL 0.8 500 PM 2/16 NWS EMPLOYEEBEALETON T 126 PM 2/16 PUBLIC...FREDERICK COUNTY...3 S STEPHENSON T 315 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTER...HIGHLAND COUNTY...MUSTOE 2.4 215 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTERMUSTOE 2.0 1030 AM 2/16 COUNTY EMRG MGMT...LOUDOUN COUNTY...1 ESE HUGHESVILLE 0.5 545 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTERDULLES INTERNATIONAL 0.4 414 PM 2/16 AIRPORT...NELSON COUNTY...1 SSW ELMA 1.0 410 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTER...PAGE COUNTY...STANLEY 1.0 500 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIA1 ESE HONEYVILLE 1.0 418 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTER...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY...2 SW WOOLSEY 1.2 449 PM 2/16 PUBLIC3 NNW WOOLSEY 0.9 427 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTER3 NE NOKESVILLE 0.5 331 PM 2/16 PUBLICGAINESVILLE 0.3 322 PM 2/16 PUBLICHAYMARKET T 146 PM 2/16 PUBLIC...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...BRIDGEWATER 2.0 500 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIABERGTON 1.3 500 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIATIMBERVILLE 1.3 500 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIA...SHENANDOAH COUNTY...WOODSTOCK 3.5 538 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTER...SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY...3 NE SPOTSYLVANIA T 217 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTERTHORNBURG T 133 PM 2/16 PUBLIC...WARREN COUNTY...FRONT ROYAL 2.0 516 PM 2/16 PUBLIC1 N KARO 0.8 320 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTERWEST VIRGINIA...GRANT COUNTY...2 ESE KLINE GAP 2.0 545 PM 2/16 TRAINED SPOTTER...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...SHANKS T 115 PM 2/16 PUBLIC...HARDY COUNTY...OLD FIELDS 1.5 500 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIA...MINERAL COUNTY...KEYSER T 151 PM 2/16 PUBLIC...PENDLETON COUNTY...FRANKLIN 3.0 500 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIASUGAR GROVE 2.3 500 PM 2/16 BROADCAST MEDIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 All you "but NYC is near normal for winter" guys can suck it if we end up with another coating after being forecasted for 2-4. lol. A coating is still a solid snowfall. Besides, let's see what the 00z and 6z runs have to say before tossing in the towel. At this point, we'll still have the potential for some more snow. If it snows at 4" per hour, we could get an inch. Not sure why everyone is on edge. It's still developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 A coating is still a solid snowfall. Besides, let's see what the 00z and 6z runs have to say before tossing in the towel. At this point, we'll still have the potential for some more snow. If it snows at 4" per hour, we could get an inch. Not sure why everyone is on edge. It's still developing Lol IDK about 6z..00z yes Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Incredible. NWS still calling for 2 to 5" in Suffolk. My call is 0 to Coating.Maybe on the north shore. I think the south shore especially extreme south shore is still good for 2-4. All the February 2010 references are ridiculous. I will say though following the trend i could see a nice band (the northern most band that has decent rates) setting up over central jersey and giving someone there 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Maybe on the north shore. I think the south shore especially extreme south shore is still good for 2-4. All the February 2010 references are ridiculous. I will say though following the trend in could see a nice band (the northern most band that has decent rates) setting up over central jersey and giving someone there 6" Interestingly that snowfall map was just updated again 7 minutes ago so it apparently is reflective of current thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 well the forcing going on now is creeping northward and east,those bands look pretty good in central pa as it heads towards n.y.c tonight.might be interesting during the morning rush to say the least if they hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Srefs about .2 for nyc.. .25+ Middlesex south That band south of Harrisburg gives me hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 18Z GEM-LAM total precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Srefs about .2 for nyc.. .25+ Middlesex south That band south of Harrisburg gives me hope yup that is our wonder band although i suspect more bands might develop along the the greatest forcing and frontogenesis which is clearly in our area but atleast it's moving up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 PRECIP WATER VALUES---near realtime creep creep north.....they do http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=pwtr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 PRECIP WATER VALUES---near realtime creep creep north.....they do http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=pwtr Interesting.. Thinking 00z guidance shifts the precip a little more north .. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 yup that is our wonder band although i suspect more bands might develop along the the greatest forcing and frontogenesis which is clearly in our area but atleast it's moving up this way. Yes good forcing setting up along that band...in return it may dry slot in dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 SREFs finally stepping down from their 7-10" several runs. Now at 4-5" for much of the area.....with more members below that than last couple runs. Took them a while to lower the amounts, geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Interesting.. Thinking 00z guidance shifts the precip a little more north .. We'll see 0z HRRR has gotten worse precip just makes it to southern shore of LI for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 0z HRRR has gotten worse precip just makes it to southern shore of LI for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 00z rap is a tad better than HRRR brings about .10-.20" into nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 18Z GEM-LAM total precipitation gem_lam_total_precipitation.jpg The thing about the LAM...its like the JMA or those Las Vegas penny slots where you get 3 pomegranites and you get just 8 pennies back...you think you are doing good because you are in the green zone...but the green zone only yields 2 - 5 mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This thread went from "the only real threat" to "can I manage an inch?". Now, THAT is deflation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 0z HRRR has gotten worse precip just makes it to southern shore of LI for a few hours yeah i suspect the hrrr hasn't caught up yet to the trends,clearly if you look at the radar the precip is already building northeast thru central pa and moving ne past our latitude..we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 0z HRRR has gotten worse precip just makes it to southern shore of LI for a few hours Yeah but HRRR has been awful with this event so far for everyone.. I'm putting stock into maybe a 10-20 mile shift north of the precip shield, not much but enough to get NW burbs into 1-3" IMO but I very well could be wrong .. There was a ritual a long time ago some members might remember "The law of the meatball sandwich" Hopefully that law is still in effect Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That band doesn't look half as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah but HRRR has been awful with this event so far for everyone.. I'm putting stock into maybe a 10-20 mile shift north of the precip shield, not much but enough to get NW burbs into 1-3" IMO but I very well could be wrong .. There was a ritual a long time ago some members might remember "The law of the meatball sandwich" Hopefully that law is still in effect Lol How's the HRRR been awful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 New nam looks pretty good....25" to the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 0z HRRR has gotten worse precip just makes it to southern shore of LI for a few hoursi don't believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 i don't believe that. It's posted above bro, I'm just telling you what the model shows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Toss it, out of range Toss the RAP at 7 hours? But we'll seriously consider snow total maps for the entire run of the HRRR? I guess so because the precip is filling in much better than that run of it showed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 this might be a game of track the band,where ever that strong band stops it northern movement and starts due east will be the kicker.if we are lucky to be under a training band with these ratios,then there might be a nice surprise for the metro area and l.i. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Nam just came in wetter.. .25+ for nyc Heavy snow makes it into coastal Monmouth county around rush hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Toss the RAP at 7 hours? But we'll seriously consider snow total maps for the entire run of the HRRR? I guess so because the precip is filling in much better than that run of it showed! That post was extreme sarcasm dude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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