Thrasher Fan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The only reason I can't give up completely on this event is the fact of just how cold this air is going to be at onset. My current conditions which are not to far off what is predicted early Monday AM (low 30s and 10-15° Dew points) would give me a wetbulb of 24.02°. Why are we having such a crazy time with models when they are contradicting themselves so much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NWS had 5-10 inches for Winter Storm Watch counties in WNC earlier today. Still have the mountains in 6-7 range. Never ever assume proposed totals are right until after the storm. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 . Excitement must be tempered in our neck of the woods... So. Many things can go wrong. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The bad thing is there isn't time for southern trend... we are about 32 hrs out from this storm.. from raleigh east the trends aren't good at this point.. maybe some flurries at onset then its going to be plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nail in the coffin will come with 12z runs, I expect the Euro/UK to tick north, I like a track right up 85 over Va Beach. GFS was just awful with this event, not even close to being right at 36-48 hours. UK was very good and Euro did catch on. I won't believe models for a winter storm outside 24 hours again. This bust ranks right up there with the all time best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The bad thing is there isn't time for southern trend... we are about 32 hrs out from this storm.. from raleigh east the trends aren't good at this point.. maybe some flurries at onset then its going to be plain rain North trend ain't done yet, will tick north up until it starts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nail in the coffin will come with 12z runs, I expect the Euro/UK to tick north, I like a track right up 85 over Va Beach. GFS was just awful with this event, not even close to being right at 36-48 hours. UK was very good and Euro did catch on. I won't believe models for a winter storm outside 24 hours again. This bust ranks right up there with the all time best. 24 hour rule is hard to follow but works every time.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Went from 7 inches of snow to right about .7 inches on the SREF. This event is probably done and I don't think this weekends event is going to produce either. At least it will be cold?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm pulling for a 50 mile south trend for you guys, as I leave for Bloomington , IN in about 7 hours and would really like to not be stuck in a hotel the next 2 days twiddling my thumbs while I wait for roads to get plowed enough so I cAn work lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I really don't like this hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 North trend ain't done yet, will tick north up until it starts tomorrow. You sound like a State fan, always expecting the worst. How'd you like that game yesterday? Go Pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 All you people whining about the wrong type of frozen precip falling iyby(in the pinned thread of all places) are seriously on my last nerves. There are a TON of peeps here in the SE forum that would absolutely LOVE to have that opportunity to watch it fall from the sky and turn everything into a winter wonderland. I don't want to hear how you only want snow and are "stuck" with IP/ZR........endrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just my prediction...this eventually comes down to the HRRR and the RAP, all the models are wrong about lower level cold and from GSP to RDU we end up with big snows ....we can dream right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 All you people whining about the wrong type of frozen precip falling iyby(in the pinned thread of all places) are seriously on my last nerves. There are a TON of peeps here in the SE forum that would absolutely LOVE to have that opportunity to watch it fall from the sky and turn everything into a winter wonderland. I don't want to hear how you only want snow and are "stuck" with IP/ZR........endrant Those same peole are the ones who complained all winter about not having anything to track. Now they finally get something to really track and it does what every winter storm ever does in the south. I mean I can't on one hand in the last 5 years that were open and shut snow storms for the SE. Even last year we were worrying about these same things with that big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Don't understand all the pessimism here. Looks like around 50 miles north and south of the VA-NC border are in for some sort of winter event. Snow to sleet. Beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Holy ****!! I know y'all are watching TWC. Jim Cantore had thunder snow 6 times with this storm!!! Its hilarious how crazy he went. That probably going to be on YouTube shortly. Historic stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Don't understand all the pessimism here. Looks like around 50 miles north and south of the VA-NC border are in for some sort of winter event. Snow to sleet. Beggars can't be choosers. Checks location. Yeah, I don't live anywhere near there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So the pet club is still here this year I see, remove my observation then editorial comment yet allow your clubbers' to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Don't understand all the pessimism here. Looks like around 50 miles north and south of the VA-NC border are in for some sort of winter event. Snow to sleet. Beggars can't be choosers. lol says the guy in VA who may jackpot with these trends! Remember only 4 active posters live in VA. Though I must say I love how Jonathan complains all winter...yet last winter he was constantly in the bullseye for heavy snow while many of us were blanked that year. Hope it goes south...paybacks a b**ch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Those same peole are the ones who complained all winter about not having anything to track. Now they finally get something to really track and it does what every winter storm ever does in the south. I mean I can't on one hand in the last 5 years that were open and shut snow storms for the SE. Even last year we were worrying about these same things with that big storm. It just gets old quick, especially to those that are most often on the outside looking in......ugh Holy ****!! I know y'all are watching TWC. Jim Cantore had thunder snow 6 times with this storm!!! Its hilarious how crazy he went. That probably going to be on YouTube shortly. Historic stuff. I seen that Checks location. Yeah, I don't live anywhere near there. Me neither Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So the pet club is still here this year I see, remove my observation then editorial comment yet allow your clubbers' to stay. One more remark like this in the discussion thread and you will be on the outside looking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think it's funny how most complain about not getting anything. This is the southeast if we get anything its a bonus. We all act like we live north and should get snow everyweek. Then when we do get it we complain it's only a foot instead of 2feet. The way this winter has gone I will be happy with freezing rain or a sleet pellet.. lol we all are greedy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think it's funny how most complain about not getting anything. This is the southeast if we get anything its a bonus. We all act like we live north and should get snow everyweek. Then when we do get it we complain it's only a foot instead of 2feet. The way this winter has gone I will be happy with freezing rain or a sleet pellet.. lol we all are greedy! It's coming powderstroke!!! Ck. out Wednesday night's low! WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... .REST OF TODAY...SUNNY. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THIS MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 12 BELOW THIS MORNING. .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 14. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 7 ABOVE. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 5 ABOVE. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My son has a great analogy for tracking winter storms in the south east! https://vimeo.com/119679635 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My son has a great analogy for tracking winter storms in the south east! https://vimeo.com/119679635 Sent from my iPhone Awesome!!! Cute little fellow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My son has a great analogy for tracking winter storms in the south east! https://vimeo.com/119679635 Sent from my iPhone Great visual, Strong! We're off the tracks! Wait. There are not even any tracks remaining. Storm? What storm? Cute kid, man. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So the pet club is still here this year I see, remove my observation then editorial comment yet allow your clubbers' to stay. Yep that's exactly right and you're not in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My son has a great analogy for tracking winter storms in the south east! https://vimeo.com/119679635 Sent from my iPhone This video sums up the entire winter of 2014/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My son has a great analogy for tracking winter storms in the south east! Sent from my iPhone He's adorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yep that's exactly right and you're not in it. So I guess we shouldn't expect a donation from him anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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