KamuSnow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12Z Euro basically shears the storm out with minimal price snow. Fixed :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Worse case scenario would seem to be no rain so i get to keep my snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Fixed :-) Oh well forgot to edit and will dutifully correct. I still have interest in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z GFS and Nam have caved to the Euro as a sheared out POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z GFS and Nam have caved to the Euro as a sheared out POS. Still plenty of time, I wouldn't write it off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Still plenty of time, I wouldn't write it off yet. Ditto....after our last event I really don't trust any model this far out. Must drive Mets crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks like the models are in agreement on this storm... They all have no clue what is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 0Z GFS is a huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 0Z GFS is a huge hit Nice run confirmed. Be interesting to watch the event unfold the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 0Z GFS is a huge hit Awesome Ralph....here we go again!!! NAO heading negative AO heading negative MJO phase 7 PNA heading + bring it...the first 2 NAO and AO needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Sure looks nice but probably BS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Sure looks nice but probably BS...Yes BUT...Let's not forget our new Philly area "Blizzard of 2015" snow ratio conversion where 12" of modeled snow = 1" of fallen snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yes BUT... Let's not forget our new Philly area "Blizzard of 2015" snow ratio conversion where 12" of modeled snow = 1" of fallen snow Doesn't matter, the good stuff will be up in Bos by the Euro which I didn't plan on staying up for....but probably will now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yes BUT... Let's not forget our new Philly area "Blizzard of 2015" snow ratio conversion where 12" of modeled snow = 1" of fallen snow The Anti snow ratio capital of the east Philadelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Doesn't matter, the good stuff will be up in Bos by the Euro which I didn't plan on staying up for....but probably will now.You're a trooper!I'm going to "sleep it out" until the Sunday 12Z Euro (check that...I meant the Monday OZ Euro run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 the GEM is loaded with moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 looks like a miller b need to transfer before it warms up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 looks like another I95 divider maybe 15 miles south east of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Sure looks nice but probably BS... bullseye 5 days out, what could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 bullseye 5 days out, what could go wrong? Practically everything... GGEM sounds pretty decent as well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think a storm like this will be easier for the models to handle. IF it does hit like the GFS indicates timing might be okay. It seems to start around 10-1am Sunday night. So there would be enough snow on the ground Monday AM to cancel most things. If it started earlier it could be a problem for post super bowl traffic, especially with people possibly not trusting mets. this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 6z gfs still has it.....quick glance....looks even a better setup.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 6z gfs still has it.....quick glance....looks even a better setup.... Not sure it's a "better" setup....the low is weaker and farther South. This is one fear with this system. Originally 24-36 hours ago it was looking like it could mix or turn to rain (track North). Now with the PV nosing South and a strong surface HP, the system is being forced to our South. Lets hope the Euro is wrong in it's depiction of a very weak and sheared low well to the South. There is a HP out in the Atlantic which could allow for some weak ridging in the Southeast to help this bump North, but it seems that feature is moving East on latest guidance. Need that feature to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Oh well forgot to edit and will dutifully correct. I still have interest in this storm. So do I - it was mainly a comment on the Euro's 12z presentation of things over the next week or so, i.e. DRY. This winter particularly any one run of any given model needs to be taken with a large grain of salt, even the Euro apparently . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not sure it's a "better" setup....the low is weaker and farther South. This is one fear with this system. Originally 24-36 hours ago it was looking like it could mix or turn to rain (track North). Now with the PV nosing South and a strong surface HP, the system is being forced to our South. Lets hope the Euro is wrong in it's depiction of a very weak and sheared low well to the South. There is a HP out in the Atlantic which could allow for some weak ridging in the Southeast to help this bump North, but it seems that feature is moving East on latest guidance. Need that feature to stick. I hear what you are saying about the southern push but for someone at the shore who was in slop earlier and now sees a nice quick 4-8 sliding through the region I was all smiles. No doubt suppression could also work against us. I have no complaints as I look over the 10"+ in the back yard, drink my coffee and watch the birds rip through their feed. Now if I put my pocono hat on its hard to find any complaints there as well. I actually prefer the cold with minor to moderate events. I like the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Lets just keep the snow on snow coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Lets just keep the snow on snow coming. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Snow on snow is the way to be! Anyway I can freshen up the snow piles I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 for best guess place model runs on dart board, models are all over the place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Nice 1052 hp dropping south as well as the PV nosing South in eastern canada. Those are your potential grazing system to the south players. Also note the position of the surface high in the southest which moves into the far western atlantic and could act to pump the flow out of the gulf stream. Thread the needle, has nice potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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