Voyager Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 good to hear...thanks guys! All over the place...but for the 12z: GFS - Southerly but north/improving from 6z. More southern NJ special. GGEM - Way south from 0z, little for everyone ECM - Way north from 0z, SECS-level storm for all More interaction with trailing energy....more amplification...more ridging eastern Greenland .... better separation between systems/sw's ... wetter system. Was a good 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 May be 3-5" TTN north on the 18Z GFS. Models seem to be trending south and less precip. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=099ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_099_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150129+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks like the st Patrick's storm from last year. That was our best snow event of the season. This system is simpler with fewer moving parts to time right compared to the other day. Good model consensus for southern zones of forecast area. Fingers crossed as ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The DGEX is a hit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'll do the Ray impersonation and say that the DGEX is an extension of the NAM. Just saying. Many runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 May be 3-5" TTN north on the 18Z GFS. Models seem to be trending south and less precip. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=099ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_099_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150129+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model How is 0.5-0.75" QPF at Trenton 3-5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 How is 0.5-0.75" QPF at Trenton 3-5"? Eh its 0.5 on the dot. Though, yeah, probably a little higher than 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Eh its 0.5 on the dot. Though, yeah, probably a little higher than 3-5. Fair enough. Didn't see the actual print out for TTN, just that it was in the 0.5" QPF color of dark blue suggesting at least 0.5". Am I reading it correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Fair enough. Didn't see the actual print out for TTN, just that it was in the 0.5" QPF color of dark blue suggesting at least 0.5". Am I reading it correctly? Probably, I was looking at the text readout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Liking the 0z NAM brings the juice north and keeps the 850's just south of Philly. Unfortunately it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 0z GFS with a north track has SEPA in the bulls eye with 8-12". Not sure if i like the trend or if I'm scared. Extremely sharp cutoff in the snow south of Kamu, riding the razors edge there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 0z GFS with a north track has SEPA in the bulls eye with 8-12". Not sure if i like the trend or if I'm scared. At least it stopped moving south :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 0z GFS with a north track has SEPA in the bulls eye with 8-12". Not sure if i like the trend or if I'm scared. Extremely sharp cutoff in the snow south of Kamu, riding the razors edge there 850 zero line bisects Philly at 84h... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 At least it stopped moving south :-) Extremely sharp cutoff in the snow south of Kamu, riding the razors edge there Just don't look south and you are super lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Solid run from Philly n&w. 7 to 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 200 mile jump north, I honestly was fearing a suppression event this winter just has no feel to what the sensible weather will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Extremely sharp cutoff in the snow south of Kamu, riding the razors edge there Just don't look south and you are super lol Don't look down! I'm hoping it winds up somewhere between 18z and 0z. I'd take some sleet for a thumping though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 200 mile jump north, I honestly was fearing a suppression event this winter just has no feel to what the sensible weather will be This one's supposed to be straightforward - it's just the track we're not sure of :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 200 mile jump north, I honestly was fearing a suppression event this winter just has no feel to what the sensible weather will be Yeah more north on the GFS and mixing issues occur. I am prepared to see various solutions for a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sorry, where's Kamu? And more FAQfully, is there a central place for translating those location codes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sorry, where's Kamu? And more FAQfully, is there a central place for translating those location codes? Kamu is in southwest Delco. You mean the airport codes? lol - glad I'm not the only one...I google the ones I 'm not sure of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM is the southern outlier at 0z. Still gets 6" snows far north as Quakertown, heaviest DC Word is UKMET has gone to Cleveland...seriously who goes to Cleveland yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 200 mile jump north, I honestly was fearing a suppression event this winter just has no feel to what the sensible weather will be CMC still suppressed and hit DCA hard, we're still well within the spread of the snow shield on the model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM is the southern outlier at 0z. Still gets 6" snows far north as Quakertown, heaviest DC Word is UKMET has gone to Cleveland...seriously who goes to Cleveland yuck Yup, it goes to CLE. It has been the most northern model for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NavGEM would argue something along the lines of the GFS track is very close, the NavGEM more or less is a slightly flatter version of the GGEM at quick glance meaning very likely its more amped than that but not like the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro looks a lot like the GFS, a little too close for comfort re: rain/snow, but looks to be mostly snow for all but most southern areas of this region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ECM trends north a big hit for us but no margin for any more north trend. Nail biter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 about 8 for PHL on Euro but as Redsky said not much margin for error, 50 miles south and you are looking at 1-3 to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Eurowx snow map most expansive snow area you will ever see 12-15" majority of PA. Mix into Philly. Good one to blow up and get framed for the hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just looking at the GFS comparison from 12z to 00z it seems like the high pressure arriving from canada is going to be the key player in determining how far north this thing comes. Here's 12z at 96 hours: Look how the high pressure is on the border of ontario and quebec, giving the storm ample cold air while not suppressing the storm at the same time. Now, Take a look at 00z at 84 hours: The high pressure arrives much later to ontario at 00z, allowing the storm to come further north. If that high is any slower to arrive then it's going to continue to trend north and warmer. That was a pretty big change from 12z and imo this will be the feature to look at to determine whether this is a snowstorm or a sloppy mix. Mets, if I'm off base here, please let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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