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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

‪#‎Blizzard‬ ‪#‎wcbs880‬ ‪#‎nycwx‬ ‪#‎liwx‬ ‪#‎ctwx‬ ‪#‎njwx‬
All 12z runs in.
>NAM- Big hit, especially L.I. & CT
>GFS, RGEM & GGEM- Still east of rest of guidance. Highest amts
over eastern Suffolk. Only moderate snowstorm City on west. Most are discarding GFS and WPC basically has thrown out its solution for not catching negative tilt developing in jet. I think its because it doesn't know where all those lows will consolidate into one and placing too much emphasis on the precip bullseye offshore.
>Euro- ever so slightly east; basically unwavering.
>HRRR & RAP- All initializing with several lows that will consolidate. Both models show n/nw track closing in on MTP and slowing down.
>Lightning strikes continue about 150 miles off Delmarva

Sticking with average 18-24". There will definite be heavier rates of 3-4" per hour in thunderstorms or banding at times which will lead to 30"+ in spots. No way of knowing where convection or banding will actually set up except to watch radar.
Somewhat lower amounts westward into western NJ but still a very significant snowfall.

A 25 mile wide bands of heavier snow already set up the length of L.I. into NJ between 78 and 80. Conditions will continue to deteriorate and all supplies and preparations should be moved to completion. If at work...LEAVE NOW or you'll end up with one of those horror stories of the nightmare commute from hell.

LIRR and MNRR will stop running by 11pm. NYC schools are closed tomorrow.
back on at 4pm on CBS New York on 880

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RutgersWx92

RutgersWx92

Posted
Posted

If I had any time off saved up I would've been on the first flight back. But I just started here so a few days in NYC for a blizzard isn't in the cards.

I thought about flying home but I just couldn't justify spending $400 for this, especially farther west in NJ where I don't think the amounts will be historic.

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jamesny

jamesny

Posted
Posted

How about NENJ?

 

ABC uses the generic Accuweather snowfall map, so it only shows a general 12-24" from NE Jersey EAST, with a 24"+ line from eastern Nassau County line to Suffolk.

 

 

He says 2-3" before dark. Also mentions that NYC is at 18" line. Very sharp cutoff of less than a foot from central Jersey west.

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NEXtreme

NEXtreme

Posted
Posted

Craig Allen On-Air Inc

4 mins · Edited ·

‪#‎Blizzard‬ ‪#‎wcbs880‬ ‪#‎nycwx‬ ‪#‎liwx‬ ‪#‎ctwx‬ ‪#‎njwx‬

All 12z runs in.

>NAM- Big hit, especially L.I. & CT

>GFS, RGEM & GGEM- Still east of rest of guidance. Highest amts

over eastern Suffolk. Only moderate snowstorm City on west. Most are discarding GFS and WPC basically has thrown out its solution for not catching negative tilt developing in jet. I think its because it doesn't know where all those lows will consolidate into one and placing too much emphasis on the precip bullseye offshore.

>Euro- ever so slightly east; basically unwavering.

>HRRR & RAP- All initializing with several lows that will consolidate. Both models show n/nw track closing in on MTP and slowing down.

>Lightning strikes continue about 150 miles off Delmarva

Sticking with average 18-24". There will definite be heavier rates of 3-4" per hour in thunderstorms or banding at times which will lead to 30"+ in spots. No way of knowing where convection or banding will actually set up except to watch radar.

Somewhat lower amounts westward into western NJ but still a very significant snowfall.

A 25 mile wide bands of heavier snow already set up the length of L.I. into NJ between 78 and 80. Conditions will continue to deteriorate and all supplies and preparations should be moved to completion. If at work...LEAVE NOW or you'll end up with one of those horror stories of the nightmare commute from hell.

LIRR and MNRR will stop running by 11pm. NYC schools are closed tomorrow.

back on at 4pm on CBS New York on 880

And he's usually conservative.

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hooralph

hooralph

Posted
Posted

There is certainly nothing official about shutting down the MTA.

 

Last two tweets:

 

.@LIRR and @MetroNorth are operating extra trains this afternoon to help you get home ahead of the #Blizzardof2015. http://ow.ly/HY5jl 

 

There will be limited @MTA subway service after 7pm. We are anticipating closing @MetroNorth and @LIRR at 11pm. #Blizzardof2015

 

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

 

‪#‎Blizzard‬ ‪#‎wcbs880‬ ‪#‎nycwx‬ ‪#‎liwx‬ ‪#‎ctwx‬ ‪#‎njwx‬

All 12z runs in.

>NAM- Big hit, especially L.I. & CT

>GFS, RGEM & GGEM- Still east of rest of guidance. Highest amts

over eastern Suffolk. Only moderate snowstorm City on west. Most are discarding GFS and WPC basically has thrown out its solution for not catching negative tilt developing in jet. I think its because it doesn't know where all those lows will consolidate into one and placing too much emphasis on the precip bullseye offshore.

>Euro- ever so slightly east; basically unwavering.

>HRRR & RAP- All initializing with several lows that will consolidate. Both models show n/nw track closing in on MTP and slowing down.

>Lightning strikes continue about 150 miles off Delmarva

Sticking with average 18-24". There will definite be heavier rates of 3-4" per hour in thunderstorms or banding at times which will lead to 30"+ in spots. No way of knowing where convection or banding will actually set up except to watch radar.

Somewhat lower amounts westward into western NJ but still a very significant snowfall.

A 25 mile wide bands of heavier snow already set up the length of L.I. into NJ between 78 and 80. Conditions will continue to deteriorate and all supplies and preparations should be moved to completion. If at work...LEAVE NOW or you'll end up with one of those horror stories of the nightmare commute from hell.

LIRR and MNRR will stop running by 11pm. NYC schools are closed tomorrow.

back on at 4pm on CBS New York on 880

 

Great discussion by Craig Allen. I very much agree with his assessment. The observed developments (storm development, emergent negative tilt to the trough, etc.) support just such a scenario.

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