Mitchell Gaines Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS just looked a touch off with how it gets going. UKMET and EC incoming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't forget the lesson of 2/9/2013 Miller B's are very erratic. 3-6" is a real possibility http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0209.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Mitchell, what are your thoughts regarding the cut-offs? Think eastern part of bucks will still cash in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Greg - absolutely! check out my post on this very topicThanks Paul. That 12/30/2000 storm jaded me forever to a Miller Bs out here but your post provides hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 At 12Z yesterday the Euro jumped on this storm while the GFS was still in the swamp. The Euro could shift a little bit again, but I would be surprised if it will be as radical as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't forget the lesson of 2/9/2013 Miller B's are very erratic. 3-6" is a real possibility i agree. I think a forecast of 6-16 as ridiculous as that broad of a range sounds is probably a fair one for immediate PHL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't forget the lesson of 2/9/2013 Miller B's are very erratic. 3-6" is a real possibility That was in my first year at PSU main campus...that storm was brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 In my opinion QPF very rarely verifies with models more than 24hours out because there are so many mesoscale factors involved. For the 0z models tonight I will be concentrating on the EC, NAM and RGEM. Even though the EC is a global model it seems to do well close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GGEM is east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GGEM is east Big time east or a smidge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Big time east or a smidge? Like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Like the GFS Grrrr...the Euro may really piss people off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Big time east or a smidge? Like the GFS heard there's a traffic jam near that philly bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I read on another forum that the Ukie is further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 heard there's a traffic jam near that philly bridge. Getting reports of heavy volume now on NYC bridges... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 UKIE is west. With ratios that's 10-15" for Philly at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I read on another forum that the Ukie is further west. It was, it had been the east outlier, the GFS ensembles look more west, it's mostly a consensus forming, the op GFS likely had a blip run, it's becoming common on this new GFS for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Euro will show a Philly-Boston HECS and we can all stop jumping off bridges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It was, it had been the east outlier, the GFS ensembles look more west, it's mostly a consensus forming, the op GFS likely had a blip run, it's becoming common on this new GFS for that Probably the most easing post in the least amount of words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Euro will show a Philly-Boston HECS and we can all stop jumping off bridges Why are you being so nice to our forum? Keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GEFS and UKMET keep the hopes alive for a solid SECS to low end MECS 5-10" 6-12" storm in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why are you being so nice to our forum? Keep it up.I'm from Philly and I want a nNESIS top 5 storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 At work just looked extremely quickly....so everything is East today except the nam ticked west a hair as well as the UKie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GEFS .75-1.00" Philly, Bucks, Montco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Let's pray for a EURO nukejob...50 miles west - embrace the mantra! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 At work just looked extremely quickly....so everything is East today except the nam ticked west a hair as well as the UKie? the NAM did more than tick west a hair, it came a good deal west. GFS east and drier For some reason I cannot get the current GGEM, but people here are saying it is east. UKMET definitely came west not sure how "Everything" means half and half, but yes the models are still honing in and we are in the zone where it makes a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 No one in the general public seems to grasp the concept of a two part storm; people believe it's actually going to snow two straight days starting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm from Philly and I want a n NESIS top 5 storm lol Appreciate the positive vibes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 the NAM did more than tick west a hair, it came a good deal west. GFS east and drier For some reason I cannot get the current GGEM, but people here are saying it is east. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=9999&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=042 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm Gonna say euro will be east. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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