A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You know who this pattern is really bad for? California. After doing fairly well with precip in December, it's back to really dry this month MonthPNormUS.png nino really hasn't delivered for them outside a basically 1 week stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You know who this pattern is really bad for? California. After doing fairly well with precip in December, it's back to really dry this month MonthPNormUS.png indeed....0% of normal is not a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 This has been an awfully strange Nino winter for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 nino really hasn't delivered for them outside a basically 1 week stretch The Nino stalling probably isn't helping any. At this rate we might have trouble getting the 5 consecutive overlapping tri-monthlies of 0.5 or warmer for an official Nino. So far there's two...0.5 in SON and 0.7 in OND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You know who this pattern is really bad for? California. After doing fairly well with precip in December, it's back to really dry this month MonthPNormUS.png No kidding. Long-range models were showing another round of storms for California later in December and a short break, but it never panned out. I wouldn't mind a lousy winter around here if it meant California got dumped on all winter, and I couldn't feel too bad if California was dry but we were getting blasted, but this winter nobody is getting anything... not California, not the midwest, not the mid-Atlantic or northeast. It has just been a big ol' nothin' burger pattern. My favorite event of this winter is easily the 6" clipper a couple weeks back. We had several hours of 0.7"-0.9" per hour snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This has been an awfully strange Nino winter for sure... I know the numbers back up ENSO and it's effect on global patterns, but how many more warm la nina's and cold el nino's do we have to see before we take pause before hammering out forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Bring on spring. This lack of snow and relentless cold dry weather pattern is getting aggravating. We have yet to see a single wide spread Winter storm in the region since meteorological winter began (Dec 1st). For an El Nino its awfully quiet. Nothing on the board for the next 5-7 days. The jet stream is to progressive to allow for any phasing to occur and unless we see something change in the Atlantic (NAO/AO), I don't see why it can't continue. I can't speak for others, but in the GTA its been too dry of late. Since October, we have yet to see a month with near normal or above normal precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Bring on spring. This lack of snow and relentless cold dry weather pattern is getting aggravating. We have yet to see a single wide spread Winter storm in the region since meteorological winter began (Dec 1st). For an El Nino its awfully quiet. Nothing on the board for the next 5-7 days. The jet stream is to progressive to allow for any phasing to occur and unless we see something change in the Atlantic (NAO/AO), I don't see why it can't continue. I can't speak for others, but in the GTA its been too dry of late. Since October, we have yet to see a month with near normal or above normal precipitation. was actually nice outside today. Had the guys working outside and i was amazed how workable the ground was. I fully expected it to be concrete, but other than a little surface crust, it was relatively soft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Bring on spring. This lack of snow and relentless cold dry weather pattern is getting aggravating. We have yet to see a single wide spread Winter storm in the region since meteorological winter began (Dec 1st). For an El Nino its awfully quiet. Nothing on the board for the next 5-7 days. The jet stream is to progressive to allow for any phasing to occur and unless we see something change in the Atlantic (NAO/AO), I don't see why it can't continue. I can't speak for others, but in the GTA its been too dry of late. Since October, we have yet to see a month with near normal or above normal precipitation. 4.8" of snow at YYZ since December 11. Uh, yeah, that's pretty horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 4.8" of snow at YYZ since December 11. Uh, yeah, that's pretty horrible. I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic because you bashed on me for complaining about this Winter 2 weeks ago, lmao. And since that complaint, nothing has occurred besides cold dry air. Winter 2015-16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic because you bashed on me for complaining about this Winter 2 weeks ago, lmao. And since that complaint, nothing has occurred expect cold dry air. Winter 2015-16? Nope. No sarcasm. It sucks big time. And 2 weeks ago complaining wasn't justified (we still had + snowfall departures). Now, it is. 4.8" of snow in almost 6 weeks of winter is atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nope. No sarcasm. It sucks big time. And 2 weeks ago complaining wasn't justified (we still had + snowfall departures). Now, it is. 4.8" of snow in almost 6 weeks of winter is atrocious. i didnt realize Toronto had seen that little this month. Its like the snow gods are pissed at Toronto or something. Whats happened there compared to most of the rest of the region in recent years was really weird, so when they were off to the races this winter I figured they'd murdered the rest of the region for a change. Though they are still probably in the lead, im not so sure anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 i didnt realize Toronto had seen that little this month. Its like the snow gods are pissed at Toronto or something. Whats happened there compared to most of the rest of the region in recent years was really weird, so when they were off to the races this winter I figured they'd murdered the rest of the region for a change. Though they are still probably in the lead, im not so sure anymore. DTW will pass us shortly. Clipper pattern and clippers do nothing here. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 DTW will pass us shortly. Clipper pattern and clippers do nothing here. Ever. The Feb pattern isn't looking too hot either. Some of the early indices/analogs have the plains ridge pretty active with a mean trough over the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nope. No sarcasm. It sucks big time. And 2 weeks ago complaining wasn't justified (we still had + snowfall departures). Now, it is. 4.8" of snow in almost 6 weeks of winter is atrocious. 3rd El Nino Winter since 2006 and all 3 have been bad for our area. Out of three this one is turning out to be the coldest, but the drought continues. Moreover, in that same timeframe, we've had 4 La Nina's and only one was bad (2011-12). However, we've had 4 atrocious Winters since 2006, which outpace any good Winters we've had since then expect 07-08. I can't even explain these overwhelming stats, but thats how bad its been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 3rd El Nino Winter since 2006 and all 3 have been bad for our area. Out of three this one is turning out to be the coldest, but the drought continues. Moreover, in that same timeframe, we've had 4 La Nina's and only one was bad (2011-12). However, we've had 4 atrocious Winters since 2006, which outpace any good Winters we've had since then expect 07-08. I can't even explain these overwhelming stats, but thats how bad its been. By my count 5 out of the last 7 years since the 06-07 season have been above normal in the snowfall department for the GTA. I leave this year out because the verdict is still up in the air although it does look like below normal anomalies are a little more likely at this point. That's not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 By my count 5 out of the last 7 years since the 06-07 season have been above normal in the snowfall department for the GTA. I leave this year out because the verdict is still up in the air although it does look like below normal anomalies are a little more likely at this point. That's not bad. Last season was amazing, but with all the missed opportunities we had, which could have made it a potential top 10 snowiest Winter on record in Toronto, kind of puts you down as SSC noted earlier. 2012-13 was decent but I wouldn't say it was amazing. About 70% of the snow that Winter came in February. 2010-11 was much better than the Winter that preceeded it, but we nickeled and dimed our way up for the most part. In addition, you can't forgot about the GHD storm fail. Statistically speaking, El Nino's are usually never good for our region. As for this Winter, its getting mighty boring. Might have to throw the towel in if nothing happens in the next 2 weeks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 No kidding. Long-range models were showing another round of storms for California later in December and a short break, but it never panned out. I wouldn't mind a lousy winter around here if it meant California got dumped on all winter, and I couldn't feel too bad if California was dry but we were getting blasted, but this winter nobody is getting anything... not California, not the midwest, not the mid-Atlantic or northeast. It has just been a big ol' nothin' burger pattern. My favorite event of this winter is easily the 6" clipper a couple weeks back. We had several hours of 0.7"-0.9" per hour snowfall. Less than 2 weeks till the 4 year anniversary of the last warning criteria event. No question we easily achieve that based on the mundane pattern continuing. Looking like it's a good possibility we make it through 4 straight winters without a legit warning criteria event. Amazing. I don't really believe in karma type crap, but I'm guessing we're gonna get smoked big time next winter. Can't stay like this forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 By my count 5 out of the last 7 years since the 06-07 season have been above normal in the snowfall department for the GTA. I leave this year out because the verdict is still up in the air although it does look like below normal anomalies are a little more likely at this point. That's not bad. 07-08 + 08-09 + at YYZ, - downtown. Very weird, tight gradient winter. 09-10 - 10-11 + 11-12 - 12-13 average 13-14 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 if euro is right, DC is the new snow town....they'll be beating most of us and new England by late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 if euro is right, DC is the new snow town....they'll be beating most of us and new England by late next week Wonder who the snow town (if any) will be at 12z? Euro has been very disappointing this year. Its days of consistency are gone (stll the best of all the models though imo). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wonder who the snow town (if any) will be at 12z? Euro has been very disappointing this year. Its days of consistency are gone (stll the best of all the models though imo). this pattern over the next week or so heavily favors the areas much further east. Not to say we can't get one or two of those pieces of enegy diving in from the nw to over perform.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 this pattern over the next week or so heavily favors the areas much further east. Not to say we can't get one or two of those pieces of enegy diving in from the nw to over perform.... Yeah, this is the winter of the clippers here. By my count tomorrow will be like our 7th clipper this winter. Clippers and a bit of LES have been almost our entire season snowfall here. With winter only half over I still think at some point a big storm or two hits the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah, this is the winter of the clippers here. meh, maybe for you, but we haven't had anything great in the clipper department either. Biggest worry, is the clippers forecasted to dive south over the next week to 10 days, dig so far they swing under us so we're left to watch action all around us. Clippers diving thru the lower OV and blowing up on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 meh, maybe for you, but we haven't had anything great in the clipper department either. Biggest worry, is the clippers forecasted to dive south over the next week to 10 days, dig so far they swing under us so we're left to watch action all around us. Clippers diving thru the lower OV and blowing up on the coast. Hopefully a super clipper gets in there somewhere if we cant get action from the SW. None of the clippers here have been special in themselves, but roll off 3 clippers in a week and it looks like a decent storm rolled through. Better than nothing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hopefully a super clipper gets in there somewhere if we cant get action from the SW. None of the clippers here have been special in themselves, but roll off 3 clippers in a week and it looks like a decent storm rolled through. Better than nothing lol. Yea. I looked at the maps this morning and wished we were back 5 years ago when the nw trend was a certainty. Silver lining is that whereas the individual euro members had virtually no big hits for the OV and lower lakes yesterday....a few have popped up on the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Winter 14/15 Official Turd Polishing Thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Winter 14/15 Official Turd Polishing Thread I'm trying to stay positive and keep my trolling gear packed away.....you're not helping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 if euro is right, DC is the new snow town....they'll be beating most of us and new England by late next week If similar trends that we've seen so far continue, it'll be a watered down version come verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Winter 14/15 Official Turd Polishing Thread Doesn't this belong in Chicago Storms medium range discussion forum that Analyzes if fallen snow or falling snow is more weather worthy? Clearly, when you invoke "turd duster" you side with fallen snow. Looks like a turd duster is on tap for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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