Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There are no well respected posters on those torus, just uber weenies.haha trying to be positive here. We already know the outcome before it even happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Pretty impressive snow rates, albeit brief. Like any good snow weenie I watched the radar and timed my errands for work during the peak so I had an excuse to be outside walking around in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There are no well respected posters on those torus, just uber weenies. Yeah, I find it hard to believe they are very well respected, unless they are actual Mets. But to be fair, I see a lot of NWS offices discussing the possibility that the weekend storms ends up with l less amp and more progressive like some of the previous storms. If it does deepen there is nothing to stop it cutting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just drove back home from Murrysville. Have 2.5 inches of new snow I just shoveled. I am getting a heavy squall again currently, Strong winds and low visibility. Looks to be isolated on radar but look out south and east of me. It's another good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Wow even if it doesnt snow this weekend look at this cold coming for tomorrow and after the storm. 2 week temps Tomorrow night may hit record levels. Imagine this outbreak in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18z GFS depicting a nice back-end thump late in the weekend. Hard to imagine that will happen. Definitely seems to have a different look to it from 12z, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18z GFS depicting a nice back-end thump late in the weekend. Hard to imagine that will happen. Definitely seems to have a different look to it from 12z, though. from what I am reading. This is a solution that was similar to what it originally showing with focus on the 2nd wave. Only time will tell if this has credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like a big warmup in store for the weekend, finally. About time. I hope it melts off all the crud stuck behind my tires and the rain washes off all the salt on my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 from what I am reading. This is a solution that was similar to what it originally showing with focus on the 2nd wave. Only time will tell if this has credence. Even this far out, there seems to be decent agreement that liquid precip will be falling at some point. However, like you said, the second wave currently looks to be our best chance at advisory snows. stay tuned. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 6z gfs was actually suppressed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 6z gfs was actually suppressed lol.The 6z NAM as well. The NAM doesn't have as much moisture for us as the GFS. Usually, the NAM is the one that overdoes the moisture. The 12z runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 maybe it will change us to all snow then!.....rain would be a mess..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 6z gfs was actually suppressed lol. I'd rather see it trend away from the driving rain storm we had yesterday so I'll gladly take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This would make my day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 What will likely happen now is that this will be so far south by the weekend that Roanoke will be the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is south. Still looks disorganized but the further south means less rain and more snow. Good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is south. Still looks disorganized but the further south means less rain and more snow. Good trends. The nam gives us next to nothing, and like I said will happen, bullseyes Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The nam gives us next to nothing, and like I said will happen, bullseyes Roanoke. Yeah, NAM is a miss to the South. I'd still rather see VA get snow the MI so I won't complain. If its an option between 45 and rain, or 30 and overcast I'll take the later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Its only the NAM lets see what the other models say. Im baffled by how much these models flip flop. This has to drive mets absolutely insane, even the ensembles are a mess because they are based off the OPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Its only the NAM lets see what the other models say. Im baffled by how much these models flip flop. This has to drive mets absolutely insane, even the ensembles are a mess because they are based off the OPs. Not only are the models all over the place the precip totals keep changing. I still like the southern trend because if the precip comes back we will be in the snow. I would rather have a 1-3 inch all snow than the usual 1 inch of slop and dry on the back end. Let's see what the GFS, GGEM and Euro have to say. Currently getting some steady light snow that has been picking up this morning. I do see on the HRRR that snow showers will develop this afternoon again. With temps this cold I don't expect much accumulation but some people may see in inch or so in some heavier batches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just looking at maps, GFS gets a finger of .5 into SWPA, sorta odd look to it but I think that would be all snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Reduced: 88% of original size [ 800 x 600 ] - Click to view full image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 maybe it will change us to all snow then!.....rain would be a mess..... I hate cold rain, but at this point with how much salt is on my car, I wouldn't complain if we get some. Salt can destroy your vehicle and its way to cold to go wash it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Now we have a repeat of the event from Monday? Models have been so bad, but in reality a less amplified solution would be ideal for us considering we have zero blocking. Looks like the clipper from yesterday is setting the table again as a 50/50, although I'd think it would be a little further north and out of the way, bringing Saturday/Sunday event further north. If places south of here get another 12" storm I might lose my mind, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GEM seems like the outlier at the moment,. I wouldn't discount it. It always seems to verify when giving our are the warm tongue. I would be surprised if a totally suppressed solution verifies. Just watched Bernie Rayno video and he says Pgh all snow, but yesterday he said the storm track, mix for our area, was locked in... Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 38% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GEM seems like the outlier at the moment,. I wouldn't discount it. It always seems to verify when giving our are the warm tongue. I would be surprised if a totally suppressed solution verifies. Just watched Bernie Rayno video and he says Pgh all snow, but yesterday he said the storm track, mix for our area, was locked in... It is further SE though compared to 00z, so its still going in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z Euro paints 3-5" across Allegheny County for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z Euro paints 3-5" across Allegheny County for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The Gfs and NAM scares me. I just feel like this will be south of us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The Gfs and NAM scares me. I just feel like this will be south of us again. GFS gives us 4 inches of snow. NAM seems to be on it's own for the driest of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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