colonel717 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How's it looking for Allegheny County? Let's hope it keeps creeping North. My temp just hit "ZERO" Off to bed. I would be surprised if this didn't come more north, or at least have the precip shield come more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here are the SREF plumes. Many above 10 inches. Mean is 6 inches http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150215&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PIT&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=41.025243045977064&mLON=-80.82551378086805&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here are the SREF plumes. Many above 10 inches. Mean is 6 inches http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150215&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PIT&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=41.025243045977064&mLON=-80.82551378086805&mTYP=roadmap Not bad, I'd like to get rid of all of those ones under the mean. Nice surprise to see models jump on building up the first wave rather than the second one. Anyways, barring a South shift Jwilson and Mailman look to be in a good spot. Hopefully we can get this thing another 100 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM not going to get it done at 12z for those North of the M/D line. Hopefully its still playing catch up to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM not going to get it done at 12z for those North of the M/D line. Hopefully its still playing catch up to the Euro. Yes NAM did come North ever so slightly but not enough. The key will be GFS, GGEM, and Euro. If they continue North we may be okay. I still think this will be a fringe storm for those of us in the North. Currently sitting at -1 degrees. Got down to -4 sometime early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I just compared 00z at 60, 6z at 54 and 12z at 48 and you can see a subtle creeping North of the precip shield on the GFS. If that continues then we might find ourselves in a 3-5 inch swath across AGC. Right now its more like 1-3 on the GFS but its going to be damn cold. I'd love to cash in on a 4-6 inch storm with temps in the upper teens. Past performance doesn't necessarily determine future outcomes, but the last couple of storms seemed to creep North all the way up to the start of the storm but in those cases it was bad for us, fingers crossed over the next 4-6 runs we see it bump 25-50 miles north with each one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1154 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 VALID FEB 15/1200 UTC THRU FEB 19/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES LOOKING AT THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TONIGHT...THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE A BIT FLATTER THAN EVEN SHORT TERM FORECASTS FROM THE 00Z NMM/ARW...13Z HRRR...14Z RAP. HOWEVER...THESE SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT A 00Z ECMWF/UKMET BLEND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. **ALL** OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SHARPER WITH THIS FEATURE SINCE YESTERDAY...AND MAY STILL BE TRYING TO CATCH UP TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DUE TO THE CHANGES SEEN AND TRENDS...WE WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP...BEST SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH IS AGREED UPON BY THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS AND SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ratios could be 15-20:1 for the Mon Night system. Might make up for lack of liquid equivalent around PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Nam is showing us to be right on the edge of the good moisture at 700 and 850 mb. Hopefully the trend northward will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Nam is showing us to be right on the edge of the good moisture at 700 and 850 mb. Hopefully the trend northward will continue. Yeah we don't need much. I hope we can count on a North adjustment when it would work to our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah we don't need much. I hope we can count on a North adjustment when it would work to our favor. Latest NAM very tight gradient to the north. Precip field didnt come north but axis of heavier precip came north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 WVZ012-021-022-160500-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.150216T1800Z-150217T0900Z//O.CON.KPBZ.WC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-150216T1500Z/WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN351 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE MONDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW MONDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 15 BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT DUETO A COMBINATION OF SUBZERO TO SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ANDWIND 10 TO 20 MPH.* IMPACTS...FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA ARE POSSIBLE IF PRECAUTIONSARE NOT TAKEN. ON MONDAY...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW ACCUMULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As far as snow totals go... 18z GFS looks to be pretty much identical to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well this is disappointing. Figures when we need the north trend we can't get it. Looks like there may be places in Kentucky/WV/VA that get more snow in one storm than most of us have had all season. Maybe we can get another storm to hit us in the middle come later this month? That said I guess I can't complain too much considering the rain threat won't exist here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't know why you guys are all down on this event already and even posting in the banter thread....we ALWAYS get the north trend and it's there a little bit....just need one more nudge!...Im not giving up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't know why you guys are all down on this event already and even posting in the banter thread....we ALWAYS get the north trend and it's there a little bit....just need one more nudge!...Im not giving up! Not always... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21z SREF plume mean at KPIT is 4.8". 7.7" in Morgantown. 5.9" in Latrobe. 8.8" in Garrett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Dry air is a real concern at the start of the precip. I've seen these types of events many times before and twenty miles can mean the difference between 6" and a dusting. No significant shift north at this point, so we're all largely out of the game. Beggars can't be choosers ...meh. I feel like I should be less disappointed with this but I'm not. Could just be the NAM's wet bias in play, but no better than the GFS for our area despite a stronger low. Figured it would come more north, but really it didn't. Looks like 1-5" is a safe call region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So close but so far away. I thought if we were going to see any meaningful expansion of the precip shield it would be at 00z. So far the NAM is pretty disappointing in that department. Can't complain really about 2-4 inches when 24 hours ago it was going to be partly cloudy. Would be nice to see that .5 qpf line make it to i70 at least since the folks in the Southern end of the region have been screwed more often this season than those not much further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So close but so far away. I thought if we were going to see any meaningful expansion of the precip shield it would be at 00z. So far the NAM is pretty disappointing in that department. Can't complain really about 2-4 inches when 24 hours ago it was going to be partly cloudy. Would be nice to see that .5 qpf line make it to i70 at least since the folks in the Southern end of the region have been screwed more often this season than those not much further North. It looks like, as usual, the northern trend stopped. When we need it to keep on going it doesn't but when we want it to stop it doesn't like last week. Not only will we get 1-2 inches but it will come overnight which I can not stand. First of all I don't see it snow but then I have to shovel it in the morning. Don't get me wrong, some of these southern areas deserve some snow but not giving Louisville 10-15 inches while we have to wait 5 years for a storm like that. #Tiredofnickelanddimestorms This should probably be in the banter thread but that fills up faster than this one. Currently -4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It looks like, as usual, the northern trend stopped. When we need it to keep on going it doesn't but when we want it to stop it doesn't like last week. Not only will we get 1-2 inches but it will come overnight which I can not stand. First of all I don't see it snow but then I have to shovel it in the morning. Don't get me wrong, some of these southern areas deserve some snow but not giving Louisville 10-15 inches while we have to wait 5 years for a storm like that. #Tiredofnickelanddimestorms This should probably be in the banter thread but that fills up faster than this one. Currently -4. I hear ya on all of that. I knew once this thing trended so far south it wasn't coming back north far enough to give us anything significant. Just another fringe job. We get fringe jobs from all directions. As snow enthusiasts, we keep on pressing on in hopes for a big storm. The best we can do is a moderate one every once in a while, like this last one. I got about 4 inches from this last one and 5 from the other one we had. Better than last year for sure, but not the big storm we all want to see that others seem to keep getting, OK, my rant is over now too. Sometimes, you have to vent. I'm at -4 also right now, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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