KPITSnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Winter weather advisory today for all the ridges for several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Heavy squall coming thru Robinson Twp right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMet only goes out 144 hrs but is south. Still long ways to go before we have a good handle on this system. NAM looks very good for the clipper on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wind Chill Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 322 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-121630- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WC.Y.0005.150212T2300Z-150213T1700Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST- LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG- INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE- OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM... COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE... ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...GROVE CITY...FRANKLIN... TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...CLARION...BROOKVILLE...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...INDIANA...WASHINGTON... WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...UNIONTOWN...WEIRTON... BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT... MORGANTOWN 322 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY. * WIND CHILL...10 TO 20 BELOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURE RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING...FROM AROUND 3 ABOVE AT ZANESVILLE AND MORGANTOWN...TO AROUND 4 BELOW AT DUBOIS AND FRANKLIN. * WIND...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH DURING THE EVENING. * IMPACTS...FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WIND WILL PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL INDICES. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU DRESS PROPERLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS says what storm...Way south and east. Just where we want it so when it goes north and west we will be good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Perfect trends at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We still have the same overall pattern (+NAO +AO) we had for the storms that went North, and this is about the time if I remember correctly the models all had everything South, which for those particular storms was a good hit for us. We will live and die by the phase, to much and its cutting, to little and we are on the Northern edge. Its definitely no certainty it comes back North but if I had to guess I'd say it will to some degree. That being said, even the CMC output would be a decent 4-6 all snow storm so I would take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Still too soon to know, but I'd rather see this south at this stage than north of us. Of course that 5-7 day bullseye is just about the kiss of death, so I'm more or less anticipating another miss. From what I can tell the pattern still hasn't budged, so unless the pacific gets more favorable towards next week, I won't expect a big hit for us. Perhaps there's something I'm missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Quite a difference from 0z. Happy to not be in the bullseye every run 5-6 days out, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lets not get to ahead of ourselves. Saturday could be fun, maybe 2-4 inches? NAM is spitting out between .2 and .25 inches and ratios between 15:1 and 20:1. Maybe a strong Squall line involved too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Does anyone recall how far out the Groundhog Day storm started trending north? I know it had a bump to the south where we were actually fringed before it ended up moving the heavy snow well north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Does anyone recall how far out the Groundhog Day storm started trending north? I know it had a bump to the south where we were actually fringed before it ended up moving the heavy snow well north of us. IIRC it was in the last 48 hours before the storm hit. We actually looked to be in a decent spot for a week or so, then it all went to crap in the last two days. The NAM and I think GFS were the first two models to get the northern track correct. Still being five days out of the next system, we have no idea how it will evolve. It could be another Lake Ontario special, or it could be suppressed into Florida. Knowing our luck this one gets suppressed and we can't hit that sweet spot in the middle to get the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 IIRC it was in the last 48 hours before the storm hit. We actually looked to be in a decent spot for a week or so, then it all went to crap in the last two days. The NAM and I think GFS were the first two models to get the northern track correct. Still being five days out of the next system, we have no idea how it will evolve. It could be another Lake Ontario special, or it could be suppressed into Florida. Knowing our luck this one gets suppressed and we can't hit that sweet spot in the middle to get the snow. Thanks, that would really hurt if that ends up happening. It looks like a possibility now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lets not get to ahead of ourselves. Saturday could be fun, maybe 2-4 inches? NAM is spitting out between .2 and .25 inches and ratios between 15:1 and 20:1. Maybe a strong Squall line involved too? An intense squall line like we had one Saturday evening last year would be nice. IIRC you kinda got screwed on that one, as the line was broken up your way. Next weeks possible storm will test our patience, as it's gonna take probably until monday to get snow amounts narrowed down. That is unless of couse there is early consensus for a super suppressed, pos, ots whiff. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, that's ugly. Something tells me that this will be the one to not trend north. Or at least not north enough to do us any good. Meanwhile, Boston is going to be digging out until June. We just want one decent storm while they have way more than they want or can handle at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looking at the runs from yesterday the systems seems so much less moisture laiden. The stripe of snow in that last image is so much thinner than what we were seeing yesterday. Not encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bethel called in a 2 hour delay already for tomorrow....wouldn't be surprised if monday gets it too with the cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 An intense squall line like we had one Saturday evening last year would be nice. IIRC you kinda got screwed on that one, as the line was broken up your way. Next weeks possible storm will test our patience, as it's gonna take probably until monday to get snow amounts narrowed down. That is unless of couse there is early consensus for a super suppressed, pos, ots whiff. lol Yeah, I remember that one like it was yesterday lol. I was outside waiting for it to move through and when it finally did I was like WTF, then radar showed it broke up right over me then came back together after it passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looking at the runs from yesterday the systems seems so much less moisture laiden. The stripe of snow in that last image is so much thinner than what we were seeing yesterday. Not encouraging Hopefully the models are just not handling the phasing correctly and over doing confluence. 00z NAM doesn't inspire a lot of hope at 84 hours. I'd say if we don't see it start to come back North by Saturday at 00z you can probably hit the panic button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z GFS is way south and way OTS. I'd be shocked if it corrects enough to come all the way back as we get closer. Still going to keep an eye on it but it doesn't look good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z GFS is way south and way OTS. I'd be shocked if it corrects enough to come all the way back as we get closer. Still going to keep an eye on it but it doesn't look good at this point. I wouldn't give up until 12z Sunday. Still wont be sampled until then. We have seen many a storm disappear in the mid-range only to reappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 How about last weeks when we were in the bullseye only for it to go north north north?....now if that trend continues we should be golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am riding the UKMET train for the mid-week storm. It only goes out to 0z Monday, but it it a lot different than the GFS at the same time. IMO, this storm will not be as suppressed as the other models are currently depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 One thing we have all learned from these models this year is that the long range has been inconsistent. I think we need to go one storm at a time. Each system seems to affect the next. Even though things don't look good for next weeks storm we will see more after Saturday's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here is the latest UKMET, the precip map only goes out to 12Z Monday, but you can then see the low go slightly northeast into South Carolina on Tuesday 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here is the latest UKMET, the precip map only goes out to 12Z Monday, but you can then see the low go slightly northeast into South Carolina on Tuesday 12Z. UKMET is keying in on the first wave and has just one consolidated system. GFS and EURO have the first wave going way South, then key in on the second but its to weak and disorganized to do much (Though both were a tick NW today) . We probably want a single wave and for it to phase sooner with that baja low. Do that and heights will rise in the east and the system will come North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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