blackngoldrules Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Okay next Tuesday is our big storm to track. This is it. Big snow or sloppy Mix. I would bet on the latter but I will be tuned in. Stop trying to suck me back in just so I can be disappointed again! That is very cruel of you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Okay next Tuesday is our big storm to track. This is it. Big snow or sloppy Mix. I would bet on the latter but I will be tuned in. opcorn:Just checked the 6z GFS and it already has the slop approaching for that fantasy storm. That northern trend just can't be stopped, and we're still a week out. Of course, I don't take these runs seriously a week out, but just goes to show what kind of winter this has been for us with storms. We're not Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just checked the 6z GFS and it already has the slop approaching for that fantasy storm. That northern trend just can't be stopped, and we're still a week out. Of course, I don't take these runs seriously a week out, but just goes to show what kind of winter this has been for us with storms. We're not Boston. Yep, not buying that this is "our" storm. I have been seeing that slop scenario on many different models.Once they start hinting at it, we know that it is extremely rare for it to not occur. It seems all it takes is 1 model to show it, and it verifies. EURO was warm last nights run, GEM yesterday afternoon. GFS has been flipping back and forth. I see the 6z is showing a huge EC storm a couple days later which even though it is too far east of us at this point I would feel a lot more confident on it coming a lot more northwest and being substantial for us than the one Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Okay next Tuesday is our big storm to track. This is it. Big snow or sloppy Mix. I would bet on the latter but I will be tuned in. That looks like the next best shot at something significant in the precipitation department for sure. 00z GFS had a good track for our area but like we all know anything the models show this far out is just a depiction of a possible outcome. I think we should be able to squeeze out 2-4 between tonight- Thursday and Saturday-Sunday. The storms unfortunately track to our North though so there is little upside to this and I wouldn't be surprised if most had little more than a coating to an inch. I'd be looking forward to the cold if it was coming in on the heels of a 4-6 inch storm or larger. Anyways, did you see this picture on the NWS Facebook page from Boston?: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That looks like the next best shot at something significant in the precipitation department for sure. 00z GFS had a good track for our area but like we all know anything the models show this far out is just a depiction of a possible outcome. I think we should be able to squeeze out 2-4 between tonight- Thursday and Saturday-Sunday. The storms unfortunately track to our North though so there is little upside to this and I wouldn't be surprised if most had little more than a coating to an inch. I'd be looking forward to the cold if it was coming in on the heels of a 4-6 inch storm or larger. Anyways, did you see this picture on the NWS Facebook page from Boston?: They have received all of that snow, around 65 inches, on a little more than 3.25 inches of liquid. Everything has been so high ratio for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Saturday night and sunday looks interesting no?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Saturday night and sunday looks interesting no?.... What else is new...Not unless you are in NE.... Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just checked the 6z GFS and it already has the slop approaching for that fantasy storm. That northern trend just can't be stopped, and we're still a week out. Of course, I don't take these runs seriously a week out, but just goes to show what kind of winter this has been for us with storms. We're not Boston. Check out the 12z GFS. "Come one! Come all!" Will we all be sucked in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Canadian seems to look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Check out the 12z GFS. "Come one! Come all!" Will we all be sucked in? I am watching, but if you really look at it more closely. I wouldn't get too sucked in as of yet...It looks like we will be a mix for a good amount of time in the middle of the storm on the GFS. Freezing line north of AGC. At least it is potentially in the over night hours so that should help some. The Sat night clipper looks a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Models continue to point towards a potential storm early next week. Glad we have a storm to track. I hate wasting weeks at a time in winter with a bad pattern especially as we head towards mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Per a very respected poster on another forum. Take a look at 4 panel Euro on the Ewall site. Go to Hr 144 and loop through 168. You will see how very close this is to a triple phased storm. At 168 the Arctic Jet breaks off - IF IF IF that AJ stays with the two other phased pieces andIF IF IF the sw ULL comes out as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Here is the EURO for the weekend clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 EURO showing heavy snow in Central Fla next week.... I have never seen snow on a map that far south. Hope that it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Winter storm watch for south and SE ridges tomorrow. 6" + Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA315 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-122015-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-315 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWESTPENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRALPENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OFWEST VIRGINIA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.SNOW SQUALLS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY...ARE EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ENGULFS THEREGION.WIND CHILL ADVISORIES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boston wins again this weekend. Unreal what kind of run they've had in this pattern. Looks like we could get a couple inches between the two systems. I'm not even looking at the storm for early next week; it almost undoubtedly will go north by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18z GFS coming in real nice. All snow. Too bad it's 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You know how we have the "Warm Tongue of Death"? Well, I call this the, "Bullseye of Doom". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You know how we have the "Warm Tongue of Death"? Well, I call this the, "Bullseye of Doom". Some people are never happy! I agree though, until the snow is falling you have to be either worried about it shifting to hit you, or staying the bullseye for x amount of days. Its fun to see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Some people are never happy! I agree though, until the snow is falling you have to be either worried about it shifting to hit you, or staying the bullseye for x amount of days. Its fun to see though. Come on, just let me have the "Bullseye of Doom"! I don't ask for much out of life. A coined phrase that I get credit for and a snowstorm. That's about it. Lol I'm just being very cautious as always when we're still a week out. Right now, it's just pretty colors on a map. If it's still showing this a few days from now, then we can take it seriously. Even then, there will still be a lot of uncertainty as we've learned over the years. Something to track though, like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Some people are never happy! I agree though, until the snow is falling you have to be either worried about it shifting to hit you, or staying the bullseye for x amount of days. Its fun to see though. I am more confident in getting 3-4 inches tom thru Sun than I am for getting 3-4 inches on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I am more confident in getting 3-4 inches tom thru Sun than I am for getting 3-4 inches on Tuesday. Yeah, I don't blame you. 12z\18z GFS and now 00z NAM looking a bit juicier for the Saturday clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Come on, just let me have the "Bullseye of Doom"! I don't ask for much out of life. A coined phrase that I get credit for and a snowstorm. That's about it. Lol I'm just being very cautious as always when we're still a week out. Right now, it's just pretty colors on a map. If it's still showing this a few days from now, then we can take it seriously. Even then, there will still be a lot of uncertainty as we've learned over the years. Something to track though, like you said. Like we have always said before, On long range models we get 100+ inches every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Snowing pretty good here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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