KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I posted what my NWS Text forecast stated, like I said you have a issue call out the NWS, that is why I included a screen shot. so when you did start to call me names or run to the mods like you do everytime someone disagrees or doesn't post what you want to read you would understand where i got that info from. I'm happy we are going to get pounded. I will be up at Blue Knob boarding with my wife and kids, have fun reporting on this from your bedroom peace You know what, I was going to respond, but I'll take it to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 DT's forecasts have been so poor this year. I'd bet my life savings I don't see 10", much less six. 4-8" seems like a good call for the city. Personally I don't expect any more than 3-4" out of this locally, but maybe we'll get a more progressive system that doesn't swing north as far. That's about my only hope down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 000 FXUS61 KPBZ 202001 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 301 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING PERIOD AS UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH WARM...MOIST ADVECTION GETTING UNDERWAY IN ADVANCE OF A MIDWESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND TAP GULF MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BEGINNING IN THE PREDAWN OF SATURDAY. DESPITE THE OPEN WAVE CONFIGURATION...JET DYNAMICS...WITH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING A COUPLED CONFIGURATION...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS ASCENT ALTHOUGH OMEGA VIA WARM ADVECTION ON THE SOUTH FLANK OF THE 850 MB AND SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY OVERDONE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN A HEALTHY MOISTURE TAP...PROLONGED SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AND A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...WITH INITIAL AMOUNTS PROGGED UNDER MOST GUIDANCE. THAT WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY ALSO SUPPORT A CHANGE TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. SHOULD RAIN FALL...AND CONFIDENCE IS WOBBLY ON THE EVENTUAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE...IT WILL QUICKLY FREEZE GIVEN THE RECENT FRIGID TEMPERATURES. PROGGED ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS QUICKER TODAY...BUT A LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING CLOSE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVENTUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IN A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. MORE ON THAT LATER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD ADVECTION WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENED MIXING LAYER BY LATER SUNDAY...HENCE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. DRY ADVECTION AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INHIBITION TO KEEP MONDAY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE ALTHOUGH UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE MID WEST. CEILINGS WILL LOWER QUICKLY AT KZZV AND KHLG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW BECOMING IFR 8Z- 10Z SPREADING EAST TO KPIT BY 13Z OR SO. IFR SNOW IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS ON SATURDAY AS THAT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT MGW AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT HLG EITHER. THE MAIN THREAT FOR FZRA WOULD BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ074-076. WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-022. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ023-041. && $ 15/33 Found the bolded interesting, as it leads possibly to the potential of higher totals I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z NAM is not nearly as amped up, but still but between .75 of QPF right through AGC. It doesn't look like there would be any mixing issues either anywhere in SWPA outside of MAYBE right on the WV border. Gives us a bit of room to bump north possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah... NAM is all snow down here. Wow. Man.. I just have a hard time believing that it won't change over at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah... NAM is all snow down here. Wow. Man.. I just have a hard time believing that it won't change over at some point. Your way is pretty ridiculous. It gives you guys about 15 inches I think. NAM is almost always overdone at this range, but the important thing is that models seem to be locking in on an all snow solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just heard Jeff Verszyla on radio. He says snow accumulating between 3 to 4 inches in Pgh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just heard Jeff Verszyla on radio. He says snow accumulating between 3 to 4 inches in Pgh area. He is always too conservative in a larger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think 5-8 is a good call with a possibility of 10 if we get under some good bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think 5-8 is a good call with a possibility of 10 if we get under some good bands. I would agree, and would imagine that the KPIT NWS office would agree by their wording in the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Time to now cast. Is this moisture going to make it here as our appetizer? Its not showing up on short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah, we see this, like, never lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So... the NAM is the outlier, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 gfs_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif What's the models all showin. Snow accum. ???-also are trending more snow each 6 hrs via models. Or less???thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So... the NAM is the outlier, right? As far as the insane accumulations, yes. The GFS still hits you really well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Good hit The 12-18 light stripe keeps creeping up towards our snow dome,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Watching ABC news their simulated radar shows heavy rain tomorrow afternoon through most of OHIO and into WPa. Also WPXI shows rain into southern and eastern Allegheny County by early in the afternoon. Heavy rain thru Westmoreland. They had 2nd different model showed more of a mix well into WPA and North East Ohio by late afternoon. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Watching ABC news their simulated radar shows heavy rain tomorrow afternoon through most of OHIO and into WPa. Also WPXI shows rain into southern and eastern Allegheny County by early in the afternoon. Heavy rain thru Westmoreland. They had 2nd different model showed more of a mix well into WPA and North East Ohio by late afternoon. We shall see.I'm always concerned with these types of storms. They seem to almost always get that warm tongue into SWPA at some point. The models usually underestimate it. Like you said, we shall see. About time for the nowcasting as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Cant remember year - but there is fairly recent analog of a storm where temps started in the low single digits, with main low passing west and remaining 99% snow. Wound up with ~6" ending as a little drizzle and temps in the 30s. Can see that happening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 000 SXUS71 KPBZ 202247 RERPIT RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 0445 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 ...RECORD COLD DAY FOR PITTSBURGH PA... THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT PITTSBURGH WAS -10. THIS BROKE THE RECORD LOW OF -2 SET LAST IN 1968. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 11. THIS GIVES A MEAN TEMPERATURE OF 1 WHICH BREAKS THE RECORD COLD MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY...4 FROM 1896. ALSO, THE -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE WAS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN PITTSBURGH SO LATE IN THE WINTER SEASON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PITTSBURGH DATE BACK TO 1871. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I don't mind reading DT's stuff, but I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I told him about 10 years ago that his maps never account for warm air properly in the upper ohio valley. Think he yelled something back. High bust potential for that bullseye That said - i think someone on the very northern fringe of that is the jackpot - and of course the ridges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well snow has started here and it took no time ramping up in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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