RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like on the NAM surface may creep just about freezing around hour 48 in extreme SWPA, but 850 stays below the whole time. Not sure about any of the other levels but given the surface is below any rain would be zr verbatim. Looking at the 500mb maps you can see that vortex in Canada is helping to squash this so it doesn't amp up and cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like on the NAM surface may creep just about freezing around hour 48 in extreme SWPA, but 850 stays below the whole time. Not sure about any of the other levels but given the surface is below any rain would be zr verbatim. Looking at the 500mb maps you can see that vortex in Canada is helping to squash this so it doesn't amp up and cut. That Vortex may be helping to squash it but the Detour sign could be the main culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Where has the stinkbugspecialist been??! Lol Thank u. I'm here. I pop In a lot and read. My older brother had heart anarism so I stayed with him for last 10 days at hospital. He ok now. But haven't wrote a lot or followed weather too much. ,,...all is good thank u for checking on me. This storm I comfused with all of them this year. U guys will figure it out. ,.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My thermometer read -9 when I walked out the door this morning. Wouldn't surprise me if that drops another degree or two. I'll have to check when I get back home later on. My truck started right up thankfully. I made sure I completely filled the tank last night. Brutal stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well, it took all winter but we finally got Nam'd. NWS mentioned convective feedback in the discussion though so don't get to excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My thermometer read -9 when I walked out the door this morning. Wouldn't surprise me if that drops another degree or two. I'll have to check when I get back home later on. My truck started right up thankfully. I made sure I completely filled the tank last night. Brutal stuff. When you think about it, it is pretty astonishing we are in the -10s on February 20th. We might break the all time coldest temperature ever recorded for this time of year. This would be brutal even by early-mid January standards. I hope it says cold til about mid March, then we can just go into 68-72 for the high every day until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's crazy that it's going to be warm enough for rain in another 36 hours??!!! I don't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well, it took all winter but we finally got Nam'd. NWS mentioned convective feedback in the discussion though so don't get to excited. The nam makes me want to cry tears of joy. For us, it reminded me of 2/5/10, at least précis amount wise. The gfs isn't bad, but the depiction of the low going up to Cleveland doesn't thrill me. I think we stay mostly frozen just because of the deep cold air, but that gfs run looks like a nasty I e storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 When you think about it, it is pretty astonishing we are in the -10s on February 20th. We might break the all time coldest temperature ever recorded for this time of year. This would be brutal even by early-mid January standards. I hope it says cold til about mid March, then we can just go into 68-72 for the high every day until May. I checked new castle...they are -19 right now. That is a significant cold outbreak for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Weather channel has us in an 8-12 range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The nam makes me want to cry tears of joy. For us, it reminded me of 2/5/10, at least précis amount wise. The gfs isn't bad, but the depiction of the low going up to Cleveland doesn't thrill me. I think we stay mostly frozen just because of the deep cold air, but that gfs run looks like a nasty I e storm. What I will say about the gfs is that by the time the warm air intrudes, the precip is almost over. We get about 6-10 inches before the change, nam is about 12-14 for the metro and 20 for extreme swpa. This has a chance to be a shock to a lot of people. I'm in shock myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not getting sucked in to the big snows. I still think we get a good amount of freezing rain which will limit the high snow totals especially south of the city. Early am SREFs have mean of 7. All are above 4 inches with max 9 inches. I think 3-5 inches before the change over is what I am expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not getting sucked in to the big snows. I still think we get a good amount of freezing rain which will limit the high snow totals especially south of the city. Early am SREFs have mean of 7. All are above 4 inches with max 9 inches. I think 3-5 inches before the change over is what I am expecting. I agree, especially with the 6z GFS showing a warmer solution. Set your expectation at 3-5 and hope to bust high due to late changeover or none at all. Today's 12z should hopefully give us a pretty good idea of what to expect. I hope we come in a touch cooler to keep it all snow or sleet and pass on the zr and plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 805 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FRIGID COLD WILL HOLD ON FOR ANOTHER DAY. SNOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND FRIGID TODAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...BEFORE UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AS WARM...MOIST ADVECTION IS INITIATED IN ADVANCE OF A MIDWESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND TAP GULF MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO SUPPRESS THE WARMER AIR AND HIGHER QPF FURTHER SOUTH AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE. IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME FEED BACK ISSUES WITH MODEL QPF THANKS TO THE STRONG OMEGA FEATURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS MAKING AN ALREADY DIFFICULT FORECAST THAT MUCH TOUGHER. WILL GO WITH ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...BUT IT DOES SEEM THAT SOME WARMER AIR WILL MOVE UP ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE IN THE DAY. THE REASONING BEHIND THIS COMES FROM A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF CRITICAL THICKNESS PATTERNS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH THE WARMER AIR NOSING NORTHWARD...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE MIXED PRECIP IN THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE WARM LAYER MAY BE TO LOW AND SHALLOW TO ALLOW FOR MIXING. IF A MIX DOES OCCUR...IT WILL BE ALONG THE RIDGES AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST. THIS CAN BE FINE TUNED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. COLD FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OHIO. AT THE SAME TIME...A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST ENCROACH ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT. THAT SLOT WOULD BRING A QUICK END TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This could possible be the biggest storm in the last 5 years. Lets hope we can cash in on something big. I think 5-8 is a safe call, 8-12 by the weather channel is a little bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Forecast right now is 3-5" for me with mixing. I'm not buying into huge snow amounts; NAM went crazy as it usually does, and the SREFs are bad. They busted way too high earlier in the week (mean of 7" and we ended up with 2.5"). Seems local news isn't expecting very much. I'm confused by some of what I'm hearing, but marginal events almost never do well here because of low-level warmth flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethel975 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Definitely keeping an eye on this. Strange that it went from essentially nothing to larger amounts of snow being forecast on other sites. As far as local mets, I don't know that any of them are ever willing to forecast a huge snow event in advance. It can snow all it wants as long as the temp is warmer for a couple days, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Colder and wetter us! I hope its right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This looks like a big dog. Surprised the NWS doesn't have watches up for the entire CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Definitely keeping an eye on this. Strange that it went from essentially nothing to larger amounts of snow being forecast on other sites. As far as local mets, I don't know that any of them are ever willing to forecast a huge snow event in advance. It can snow all it wants as long as the temp is warmer for a couple days, lol. This has a 2-5-10 bust written all over it, where locals say 2-4 and we get 6-10. Luckily, it is on a Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If the NAM verifies my only complaint would be it hit on a weekend, how am I supposed to get a day or 2 off work with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethel975 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This has a 2-5-10 bust written all over it, where locals say 2-4 and we get 6-10. Luckily, it is on a Saturday. Funny, I thought of that exact storm when I was reading everything. Thankfully, I don't have anything planned for the weekend, and I did all my running yesterday in the bitter cold. I had to pick up a Girl Scout cookie order, so it just made sense to do it then. Hubby will have to go cut wood this weekend, but he has four wheel drive, so it won't be a problem for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hi Rez NAM is only around 3-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This looks like a big dog. Surprised the NWS doesn't have watches up for the entire CWA. If the 12z model suite continues to come in like the NAM I think they will. You have to consider 36 hours ago this storm was going to hit Chicago so its hard to bite into these big impact solutions. Once the NWS issues watches \ warnings a whole slew of other things kick off with local governments which costs tax payer dollars so if it ends up wrong well...I do agree, this has the potential to really sneak up on people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hi Rez NAM is only around 3-4 inches. Looks more like 6 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Rethinking my trip to WVU tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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