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1/13, 1/14 - Freezing rain threat


packfan98

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.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 1040 PM TUESDAY...

...COLD AND DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NC BUT PRECIPITATION

AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT ARE REDUCED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND SHOULD

LAST FOR A SHORTER DURATION...

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD DRY AIR SURGE IS

MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NC AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN

PIEDMONT HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND JUST NORTH OF THE

BORDER IN VIRGINIA DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 32 NORTH OF A LINE FROM

NEAR INT TO BUY TO RDU TO IXA. THE 00Z RAOB FROM KGSO HAD A LOW

LEVEL THICKNESS VALUE OF 1299M AND A THE COLDEST TEMP IN THE SURFACE

COLD LAYER WAS AROUND -4C WITH NO SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION

REGION UNTIL YOU REACH CIRRUS LEVEL AT AROUND 22KFT. LATEST WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE

SOUTHERN STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT JET AT 250 HPA AT LAKE

CHARLES. THIS FEATURE IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND IS LARGELY

RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS EXPANDED AND

MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.

WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FASTER THIS EVENING...IT IS

ALSO EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLIER WHICH WILL SHORTEN THE WINDOW

OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING

THE HIGHER SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE TRENDED

DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE QPF FOR TONIGHT WHICH AGREES WITH

SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE

SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAH CWA BY DAYBREAK. DESPITE THE

OVERALL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT OF AMOUNTS...AN AREA OF ENHANCED ICING

ALBEIT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IS EXPECTED IN A

REGION FROM EAST OF RALEIGH OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST TO HENDERSON

AND OVER TO TARBORO WHERE AN AVERAGE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICING

IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ELSEWHERE VERY MINOR

GLAZING IS EXPECTED IN THE TRIAD WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN

AND DRIZZLE. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...THE

SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...THE COLD AND DRY AIR WILL

TAKE SOME TIME TO ARRIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT

AND LARGELY CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE

FROM 27 NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER TO 30 NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA

BORDER.

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Temps still above freezing in the Durham/CH/west Raleigh area. AOB freezing west, north and east of here. It's toast, folks. Probably not even a glaze here at this rate.

31.4 with freezing rain in West Raleigh per Jonathan Blaes of NWS RAH
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