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18Z models


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Verbatim, I don't think it's likely the the NAM at 84 would yield a solution like the 12Z models. I can't see that shortwave diving to the Gulf Coast then sliding out or looping up and around...phasing earlier looks a little more likely. But I only kind of know what I am talkng about and it IS the NAM at 84...

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The 18Z NAM looks to me like a slightly faster, colder, more northerly 12Z Euro at 84. EDIT: and the 18Z NAM S/W isn't positively tilted like the Euro.

NAM seemingly took the lead in every event last year

this year it hasn't

but neither have any of the other models, either in the short or medium range

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it has a tight, closed Low at 120 hrs, opens back up and then closes to a broad 5H low, then tightens back up after 132 hrs

a little unstable, but at 5-6 days I guess its to be expected

So does this move the storm a bit earlier .... i.e XMAS eve??!!??

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