MichaelJ Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 For as "inaccurate" as they've been. They have been spot on about one thing. There has not been a consistent cold snowy look in the LR and we still have no real winter storm. I would say for that it's been pretty durn accurate. No doubt that is true, but that could be said of virtually every winter in the South because that is just the way it is down here. If you forecast mild and/or rainy winters here you will be right 80% of the winters. It is sort of like forecasting summers here, doesn't take hardly any skill or education in Meteorology, 99% of the time we will have hot summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 For as "inaccurate" as they've been. They have been spot on about one thing. There has not been a consistent cold snowy look in the LR and we still have no real winter storm. I would say for that it's been pretty durn accurate. Yeah...I'll start to feel good about a wintry pattern, when I see the models (across all suites) consistently show blocking that doesn't hold at D10 or beyond, along with some ridging out west. Another sort of persistent thing that I've mentioned before is that we've seen these southern stream systems over-perform...so that's given me a bit more optimism for the event next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS has a touch of freezing rain on tuesday and thursday still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS has a touch of freezing rain on tuesday and thursday still. GFS PARA has a lot more moisture associated with Thursday and a weak CAD showing up giving portions of I-40 ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Missed phase on GFS, wide right. Para weak phase, closer to something. This may be an event where the Euro should shine, although the pattern is so progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The PARA is close to something big but just not quite there. Might spark something off the coast on this run with all that energy diving in on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Missed phase on GFS, wide right. Para weak phase, closer to something. This may be an event where the Euro should shine, although the pattern is so progressive. it usually is, but it's last two ensemble runs have been unimpressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Let's see if the phase happy CMC can do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 You know, the hell of the thing is it isnt like we've been warm or dry. If you simply take what MOS gives us for the next week, our average monthly temperature at KCLT will be at 36.4º. Now, granted, that only puts us halfway through January. However, if that temperature held up, you'd have a month colder than the following: 1961 1996 2003 2004 2010 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The Para is pretty icy here. Not really much S/E of I-85, however. I've read in other subforums that the Para tends to be warm at the surface. I'm not sure how true that is, if at all, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Well at hour 372 the GFS doesn't look that bad...so we got that going for us. Everything in between is just boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Let's see if the phase happy CMC can do better. @120 some moisture around the Carolinas with weak system in TX. See where it goes thought I can't see 5h maps through SV until like an hour from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Para looks to phase too late but hits Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The 12z CMC doesn't appear to show anything at all. I don't think it really had anything at all last night, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 As for the trusting the models conversation, you can see what lead to the model distrust around and after Christmas specifically, at 500mb the Euro at day 8 was the worst performing model with a score below 0.2....overall it's the best but that's not my point. with that said MOST models were bad, it appears recently the models have gotten their act together, though, at least for Day 5. Last 7 days verification scores for 500mb NH 5 day forecasts (I know that's a mouthful): GFS: 0.918 Euro: 0.920 To me the models, at this point in time, can be trusted at Day 5 (120hrs), whether or not they can be trusted at day 8 remains to be seen...the image suggests scores are improving, but the Euro goes from 0.85 to 0.45 in the first week of Jan. Still can't put much faith in the LR modeling IMO (after day 5, ie. Day 8-10 192-240hrs) And the CFS is by far the worst model for everything. If that's news to anyone. Canadian is also a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like the gfs and euro are pretty much tied. Lol.. cfs, what a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 For as "inaccurate" as they've been. They have been spot on about one thing. There has not been a consistent cold snowy look in the LR and we still have no real winter storm. I would say for that it's been pretty durn accurate. agreed...IMHO thats one of the BEST posts I have seen...Seriously..We HAVE NOT had a good true storm to track.. Very accurate on that. PLUS they have been accurate on weakening and dappening things out as we get closer in time. I see NO reason why this should be different..I actually DONT favor a wound up storm. This will be crappy sheared out mess, if anything. IF** it does wind its OTS *JMHO as of now* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The possibility is still there, but I feel like its the same old same old...always trends to Shi* when we get closer. Give me a torchy look with a nice SE ridge and a huge lakes cutter to change crap up so we can salvage a good Month in FEB...JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12Z GEFS: nice west coast ridging returns ~1/22 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12Z GEFS: nice west coast ridging returns ~1/22 fwiw We used to have good looks in the 10 day range, now they are in the 13 day range. Seems to me we are going the wrong direction and running out of 10+ days windows to look through. All kidding aside, there are many that are favoring a brief mild spell, followed by west coast ridging, a -EPO, and hopefully a less hurtful AO and NAO. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like the gfs and euro are pretty much tied. Lol.. cfs, what a joke. In your own world, in the last seven days only, only at five days and the Euro still edges out the GFS. Euro is still king on almost every metric..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro also has some frozen drizzle for NC on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Well the Euro is trying out past Wed. Not a terrible look at 5h just need that energy moving out of TX to take amore neutral to negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro is close....damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Well the Euro is trying out past Wed. Not a terrible look at 5h just need that energy moving out of TX to take amore neutral to negative tilt. Looks like a weak wave is trying to form in the western gulf at 120, but probably not going to amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Very close to snow in Northern GA....we might have something to watch after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Very close to snow in Northern GA....we might have something to watch after all. How far are you out? I am at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 How far are you out? I am at 120 I'm at 144. Nice piece of energy going through the SE with a weak low crossing FL...northern energy coming on it's backside. Cold temps for most of NC and northern GA...though not perfect at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 @150 snow in NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 This is close to an I-85 special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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