buckeye Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 euro at 168.... that's not a snow storm set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 So the GFS pulls a bit north, the GEM nails southeast Michigan, and the Euro looks...better....but still south. I made this thread because of the setup + outstanding consensus. So much for that, lol. The solution space is getting wider with time, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centriptic Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Rainman, we still love you. Even if this doesn't pan out for the sub-forum, you brought knowledge and analysis; and frankly, that trumps a majority of failed weenie threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 So the GFS pulls a bit north, the GEM nails southeast Michigan, and the Euro looks...better....but still south. I made this thread because of the setup + outstanding consensus. So much for that, lol. The solution space is getting wider with time, unfortunately. Yeah. It is best to wait until these storms get within 120 hours to start a thread IMO (models are just a bit to much LaLa land after 120 hours). Heck this winter maybe within 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Rainman, we still love you. Even if this doesn't pan out for the sub-forum, you brought knowledge and analysis; and frankly, that trumps a majority of failed weenie threads. True! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Lol. Much too early to punt on this one yet. I'm riding the Canadian train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Lol. Much too early to punt on this one yet. gem.jpg I'm riding the Canadian train. I'm not punting this by any means myself. But I'm keeping my excitement in check, as we've seen these type of setups play out not-so-positively many times. The analysis in this thread has been great however. I think we can say this is the best potential yet this season, although that doesn't say much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Alllll- aboard !!! At least there is snow surrounding the train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Lol. Much too early to punt on this one yet. gem.jpg I'm riding the Canadian train. I'll take the 0z Euro for 1000 Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 As Rainman noted, there does seem to be less potential for things to go wrong compared to some other setups. Frankly I'd go as far as to say that I will be surprised if this doesn't work out for someone...and if it doesn't, it might get me to think that this winter is just destined to be a big pile of suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Fairly impressive 18z op GFS run. Nice cycloneville bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Best potential of the season thus far. Early phasing for a DSM-LSE-APN hit, lack of phasing with a system scooting south of most of the sub-forum, or something in between with a nice hit somewhere. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Interesting both the GFS and the parallel GFS area hit north of here on 18z runs. The range is still wide unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Interesting both the GFS and the parallel GFS area hit north of here on 18z runs. The range is still wide unfortunatelyDo you buy the GFS bring the furthest north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Do you buy the GFS bring the furthest north? It is a possible solution as Chicago Storm noted. Whether or not it ends up being reality, is tough to say at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Another threat from this, given the E/NE flow and how cold the antecedent airmass will be, could be narrow zone of significant ice. Granted, the lack of a deep snowpack will limit the potential somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 12z EPS mean continues with a track over ORD. But, still a decent amount of spread..as is to be expected at this range. Though they certainly haven't been bulletproof so far this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Best potential of the season thus far. Early phasing for a DSM-LSE-APN hit, lack of phasing with a system scooting south of most of the sub-forum, or something in between with a nice hit somewhere. We'll see... Succinct. To the point. No weenie bias. Voice of Reason. Appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 ILN leaning toward the Euro at this point. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BECOMING MOREENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXTWEEK...WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERNPART OF THE COUNTRY. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THEGREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASSWILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS...OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORETHE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST STARTS TO EJECT TOWARD THESOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREADWELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLYDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE 12Z MODELS...AS WELL ASPREVIOUS RUNS HAVE SHOWN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE SPEED AND TRACKOF THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND PARALLEL GFS H5 PATTERN ARE MOREIN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...SO SOME PREFERENCE IS SHOWN TO THE SLOWERECMWF PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. GIVEN THISSCENARIO...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD TEND TOWARD MOSTLYRAIN BY SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Fairly impressive at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 A few ensemble graphics: The handful of 18z NCEP ensembles that show the storm are north of the GFS (though Thundersnow's graphic above probably holds more use than this one), in contrast to the 12z suite which had a handful of members decently south. FNMOC ensembles for kicks, since only one CMC ensemble member showed up to the 12z party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Another threat from this, given the E/NE flow and how cold the antecedent airmass will be, could be narrow zone of significant ice. Granted, the lack of a deep snowpack will limit the potential somewhat. If a more amplified GFS/GEM like solution verifies then I strongly agree with you. The euro is less bullish on the CAD as its NAO forecast is significantly lower and thus the confluence zone over Que is further north and weaker. The GFS, with its more positive NAO is advertising a much stronger high/confluence zone out ahead of the low over Quebec(1039mb high). If it is correct with its idea, models almost always trend stronger with these feature as we move closer to the event. Here is the upcoming pattern compared to the 5 day mean surrounding last years ice storm... both have the -EPO/+NAO couplet in common. Interesting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 0z GFS still on the north side taking a track through Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 0z PGFS farther south tracks from western KY northeast along I-71 in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 0z GFS still on the north side taking a track through Chicago. The surface low track doesn't look right compared to the 500mb low and its track. I would have expected the low about 100 miles south with that 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 ggem tracks up the Ohio river, so it came south. HOWEVER precip is all rain. this is how bad winters begin to show themselves. Threats that are complicated and end up falling apart, cold shots getting pushed back, cold shots without storms, and storms that have very little cold-sector precip. (sorry for the rant, just the overall mood after looking at the models and hearing the rain on my office roof). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I think the Euro is going to be north this run, it is certainly quicker this run and further north so far at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Latest run of NCEP ensembles goes the whole nine yards, voids any consensus that was forming in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Looks like a sub 990mb north of Buffalo at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Looks like a sub 990mb north of Buffalo at 168. Yeah crosses here at 995mb at 162 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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